So PFF just finished their annual draft ratings for every team for the years 2008, 2009 & 2010.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/category/features/draftevaluation/
The way they did it, they have a scale that goes +2 for a Tom Brady level find all the way down (in increments of 5) to -2 for a JaMarcus Russell level bust, with 0 level players being basically average. This scale does not take into account whether the player still on the team that drafted them, because that actually says nothing about the player. For example, if Revis gets traded to Tampa that doesn't mean Revis sucks or was a wasted pick. This scale is essentially rating the ability to find talent.
I should also point out, I totaled up the scores. PFF did not do that, so my totals might be wrong as I did this over a number of days.
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[TD="align: center"] Team [/TD] [TD="align: center"] +2 [/TD] [TD="align: center"] +1.5 [/TD] [TD="align: center"] +1 [/TD] [TD="align: center"] +.5 [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/TD] [TD="align: center"] -0.5 [/TD] [TD="align: center"] -1 [/TD] [TD="align: center"] -1.5 [/TD] [TD="align: center"] -2 [/TD] [TD="align: center"] Total [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] GB [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 10 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 7 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +6 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] TEN [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 13 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] KC [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 10 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +4 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] MIN [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 9 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +3 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] NYG [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 8 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +3 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] HOU [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 13 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +2.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] MIA [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 10 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 8 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +2 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] ATL [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 13 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +2 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] DET [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 11 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +1.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] NE [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 10 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +1 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] CIN [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 15 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 8 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +0.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] OAK [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +0.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] PHI [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 21 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +0.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] TB [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 7 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 7 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] +0.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] SF [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 8 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] DAL [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 10 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 7 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] SEA [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 9 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] BAL [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 8 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -0.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] CHI [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 13 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -0.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] WAS [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 10 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -0.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] CLE [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -1 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] BUF [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 15 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -1 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] ARI [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 7 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -1 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] CAR [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 10 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 7 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -1 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] PIT [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 10 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -1 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] NO [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -1.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] STL [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 12 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 7 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -1.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] IND [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 8 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 7 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -2.0 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] JAX [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 7 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -2.0 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] SD [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 8 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -2.0 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] DEN [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 4 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 13 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 6 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -2.5 [/td]
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[TD="align: center"] NYJ [/TD] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 3 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 5 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 2 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 0 [/td] [TD="align: center"] 1 [/td] [TD="align: center"] -3.5 [/td]
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I think some things to glean from this are:
- The Jets suck.
- A GM's track record isn't always indicative of the W/L record.
Now, sure, people will argue with many of the grades, and I don't think this chart is gospel, but I also don't think PFF is biased towards or against Miami either, so as far as they are concerned, this is probably as objective as possible when it comes to team bias.
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Tone_E, Disnardo, Ohio Fanatic and 14 others like this.
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Fans for the most part have no idea what a draft actually looks like- What realistic failure or success is both long and short term, what should be expected in any given round, etc.
The problem isn't inherently that, but the fact that people want to have strong, aggressive opinions with no interest in actually coming to an educated opinion.unluckyluciano, Fin D and Stringer Bell like this. -
Miami is what that chart says they have been, neutral, or mediocre. For the most part bland and to not have a single player in the top two categories. That is why many of us have had such a problem with Ireland. No he's not had the worst record in the draft, but he needed to be better since its been mostly miss when it comes to FA signings since he's been here.
This year he needs to place two players, 1 in each of those two top categories. He does that we become a playoff team for the next 3 years at least.jdang307 and NolesNPhinsFan like this. -
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Sure we CAN, but will we ? We still have to see it play out, and of course stay injury free.
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When you add it to our FA misses, it comes out mediocre. This is why you can't take just one side and trumpet it around and act like is proof of anything. The whole picture needs to be taken into account.NolesNPhinsFan, Larry Little and Bpk like this.
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There are a lot of FA hits too. Chad Pennington, Randy Starks, Cameron Wake.Ohio Fanatic likes this.
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Did they offset all the misses ? Apparently not, our 4 losing seasons in a row is proof of that. Dude, give it up, it is what it is, and come to grips with reality. We have a combined 4 year record of 27-37 which is in the bottom 1/3 of the NFL I believe.NolesNPhinsFan and Serpico Jones like this.
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Yeah the +2 is probably not a good example. But look at the teams above Miami and then look at the half dozen below. They have a lot more big hits than us. The overall score is helped by Miamis "knack", if you will, of getting adequate talent and avoiding busts.
Whereas other teams perhaps have more busts, but they are offset by more finds. -
There is also the matter of a coaching staff. That affects the perception of talent in two ways: 1. W/L record. A coaches decisions or ineptitude to gameplan or inability to adjust can seriously hurt the success of a player and the team. 2. A coaches ability or inability to help develop talent.
Look at the difference Hartline and Jones made with new coaching staffs.cuchulainn, Ducken and Sumlit like this. -
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This was a great read and very interesting. Not just for Miami but for all teams.
The only problem is this doesn't have a way to put a heavy enough weight on missteps in the first round or early rounds that have led to this team's mediocrity. Long over Ryan. Odrick and Merling. But it does explain why this team is very mediocre instead of terrible. Many safe picks in early rounds have built a very mediocre roster. That's what you would expect for someone who is drafting players whose talent has a very clear ceiling rather than going for high risk/reward picks.
I've never said Ireland is a terrible drafter though. He has just followed an outdated philosophy (Parcells) that could maybe result in winning seasons in 1985, but not in 2013. Some of you think he has broken off from the Parcellian mold. I'm not so convinced. His mediocre drafting paired with terrible production in free agency (not including this year), and failure to address the QB position (hopefully Tannehill is the answer) are what lead some of us to have a negative opinion of Ireland. His abrasive nature, nerdy sunglass connectors, pasty white legs, mom whore calling, weak hairline, and pennsyltucky drawl are just icing on his **** cake.Fin-Omenal likes this. -
Just like when Parcells was here, there's no way to evaluate what Jeff did on his own since we're not in the room with him. This'll never be resolved to a definite conclusion barring more evidence coming out.
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Is it wrong that all I cared about is that the jets are last on that list?
eltos_lightfoot, cuchulainn, Stitches and 5 others like this. -
I just think people tie their perception of the talent on the team to the W/L record and I don't think that should be automatic.
We were 1-15 then 11-5 then 7-9. That tells me there's not an overall talent problem, but a coaching problem and looking deeper, a QB problem. -
Overall the result is pretty consisistent with the few other attempts at objectively evaluating drafting that I have seen. Personally, I think the grades for Jake Long (just +0.5) and Jared Odrick (-0.5) are too low. Jake was an excellent player for a few years before the injuries andeven the last two years has still been better than just a +0.5. Odrick has started the last few years and been solid. Not great, but a solid starter. You can't expect a whole lot more than that late in the 1st.
cuchulainn, Stitches, Anonymous and 2 others like this. -
I agree that there were some +0.5 grades in there that probably should have been 0's.
Interesting read, though. It's nice to get other opinions. Thanks for the link.Fin D likes this. -
speaking of big picture, w-l doesn't just boil down to players. There are other factors in that as well.
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unless you have a mathmatical way to do that, your weight would be entirely subjective.
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C'mon Sumlit, only ONE team boasts a 2.0 according to PFF's ratings and 3/4 of the league had 1 or less 1.5s, so I think your beef may be a little extreme. Added, there's no bump on Ireland b/c it's only been his team the past two years, and those haven't had sufficient enough time to be graded.
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I agree with this. If Ryan Tannehill turns out to be a +1 or better when they do the 2011 draft in retrospect, for which I'm cautiously optimistic (stressing the "cautiously"), winning will be a part of this franchise's foreseeable future. If he ends up in the negatives, which I highly doubt, we'll really struggle. Anywhere in between, which is altogether possible, and we tread water... maybe compete for wild card births, hitting and missing on a year-by-year basis.
But when you draft a QB in the first round or so, you're hoping for him to be a franchise guy, and certainly a +1 or better where this chart's concerned. Jury's still out on Tanne. Henne was a miss, and a miss on a QB filters thru the whole team.Fin D likes this. -
Yeah i already said the +2 was a bad example. However if you look at the teams above us and the half dozen below us, all have more in the +1 and above category than us.
And IMO there is definitely a perception on Ireland that he chooses low risk high floor players and an aversion to high risk high reward players. This list tends to provide evidence to support that perception. Granted the perception might be wrong, but there is still some evidence to support it. -
I don't see the "aversion to high risk high reward" players thing. Nobody takes high risk guys with every pick, nor should they. Low risk is a good thing. Ireland has drafted or traded for several high risk, high reward guys. Pat White was one -- had he panned out as the wildcat weapon he was envisioned to be it would have been a big reward. Brandon Marshall was certainly a high risk, high reward acquisition. Tannehill too, as a guy with so little starting college experience and good, but not great, college production. To varying degrees, but in somewhat different ways, Vontae and Sean Smith were high risk, high reward guys. You could even make a case for john Jerry, as a physically talented guy who could either develop into a dominant player or a fat tub of lard. Unfortunately, we just didn't get the high reward that we hoped for with those picks.
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You can't put success in the context of picking the exact best singular player at a specific pick. That pretty much means very few picks are successful and basically no teams are overall. If Jake Long wasn't a good pick then they are very far and few between.
Your definition of safe is really problematic. You seem to be using it to describe positions you find boring rather than how likely a pick is to succeed. Phillip Merling for example is not at all a "safe" pick.
His free agency production isn't at all terrible either, and I'm not sure what you are complaining about in the context of quarterback. When you draft a guy you make a commitment to doing your due diligence in figuring out if he is going to work out. That's a significant investment.
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Don't confuse talent risk, with character risk. Brandon Marshall was not a high risk talent wise. Also, i spoke mostly about the draft, not free agency.
Vontae and Sean Smith were pretty good college players, Pat White was a WTF pick, Tannehill i agree, though perhaps that is a change from here on. Jerry was not a risky pick either. -
I think this is a very accurate statement. Buckeye fan for years and we beat Michigan Henne's senior year and they were loooooaaaadddeeeed. Henne, Manningham, Long, Mike Hart was a great little running back. I believe they were not great because of Henne. Provided the same level of "expertise" for us that he did for them.ATLFINFAN likes this.
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