I'm gonna go with 8-8 assuming Ajayi doesn't miss much playing time. I don't trust the defense and I don't think this team knows it should be a run heavy team. I feel that we won't have strong contributions from the draft and we missed out on opportunities.
That being said, I think them going 10-6 last season gives them confidence in their HC and in themselves and they'll overachieve. If it wasn't for that I'd say they go 7-9 or 6-10.
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What did you predict we'd finish last year?
IMO, we are MUCH better than last year. We have far more depth on a team riddled with key injuries.
A few tidbits:
Ajayi wasn't even on the travel roster week 1 last year. Now he's s top 100 player.
Cam Wake now has a clone that he can help mold.
We didn't have any players like McMillan or Timmons last year.
The passing game is "DeVante Parker" away from being elite.
Three second year players that could break out (Drake, Carroo, and Grant).
We have a FO and HC that have a system and are executing a plan....
I say 10-6, host and win wildcard game. -
we are a better team going into camp than last year. Not only with personnel, but the team is in the second year of a coaching staff. 7 wins? We should sweep the Jets and Bills, and that's 4 wins there. I also think we can start off 4-0. They indeed overachieved last year, but there are things on the brink in the post above me that I agree with. Parker and Drake arena line for breakout years. We are a Tannehill away from being elite
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I had us going 10 and 6 last year...
I will stick with the same this year, against what seems to be a tough schedule..I will also say I think we have a better chance because of our specific improvements, to go 11 and 5 over 9 and 7.
Xavier Howard is a beast against the run..he missed a lot of games in his rookie year.
Lawrence Timmons is a beast against the run.
Kwon is a beast against the run
Reshad jones is a beast against the run.
William Hayes is good against the run.
5 upgrades and major reps added to a defense that was horrible last year.
Offenses 2nd season in system should lead to coming out of the gates quicker that last..Should lead to us reversing the record from last years 1 and 4, and, we got better as the year went on..that trend should continue and get us to 10.
Ryan tannehill should improve..there are no excuses..not even the interior line will be one..why you ask, because he's been told what to do by all his coaches..so if that rush is coming up the middle, recognize it, don't sit there and wait for your receiver to get open, recognize and bail quickly, using your legs to make a play, running past the Los or running to reset the platform.
The season imo comes down to whether he gets that specific message, and adds it to the overall strategy of winning the game.Fin-O, jdang307, Fin D and 1 other person like this. -
I hate pre-season predictions on how we are going to finish the season as I have been so optimistic in the past, only to have been kicked in the nuts by year's end. Last year I predicted 8-8; Met Jeff Cross during the Dolphins' game against Atlanta in Orlando and he predicted 10-6, to which I thought he was cray, but seeing how that is still a HUGE man, I didn't tell him that (lol) and we did indeed finish 10-6.
On PAPER, we are a much improved team over last year's but football isn't played on paper and I've already expressed my concern over our BRUTAL first 5 games in which we're traveling 12K miles in five weeks. I fear the sophomore slump is going to curse Gase and we're sadly only going to finish 8-8.
Jeff Cross, where are you my friend? :winks2: -
I think that this seasons sched will be much tougher, and TC is where you start to really get a feel, but early on I think we are near a 500 team with a couple wins in either direction, and that will be on the QB.
I think we are in store for a lot of close games again this year but vs better teams, so the QBs will be crucial imo.finsfandan likes this. -
I also think the Suh affect comes into play here, this is why you pay him the big bucks..he's not going to have a slump..and I believe his presence doesn't allow others to slack.. -
Predictions are cool. I'm going with 9-7.
But if you asked our predictions after 1-4 or whatever, what would it have been? And that's after watching the team for over a month. So unpredictable and never give up hope!Gaijin and finsfandan like this. -
A tougher schedule balanced out with an improved team. Once again, I'll go with 10-6 and a wildcard spot. Depending on the match-up (love to play the AFCSouth winner for example) we might actually see a Dolphin playoff win for the first time since the 2000 season.
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My prediction before last season began was 11-5 and a divisional victory. After the 1-4 start, I changed my tune to 4-12 and a top-five draft pick.
This year, I'm once again predicting 11-5 and an AFC East victory, but I'm going a little more bold: Miami will be undefeated at home.
I have victories over Tampa Bay, San Diego, New York (twice), New Orleans, Tennessee, Oakland, New England (twice), Denver, and Buffalo. I have losses to Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina, Kansas City, and Buffalo.
I believe our floor is 8-8, and our ceiling is 13-3. -
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Probably 8-8, but this year's team will be better than last year's.
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11-5
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I don't put much stock in strength of schedule. Too many variables with injuries, drop off in play and just plain luck. I think we can duplicate last season's record just because of change in our defensive backfield. Our LB's were awful last year. Couple that with an upgraded CB situation and our D should be better.
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About last yera record
Pros:
We had a good record despite being in year one of new offensive and defensive systems.
Consistently improved output from the starters throughout the year.
Emergence of Jay Ajai.
Cons.
We were 7-2 in 0-7 point games. History shows that teams can expect to go 50-50 in 0-7 point games. Our record in close games is unlikely to be repeated.
Lack of depth begind the starters.
No player produced great season long stats. Players had good games and good stretches but no one really had a good consistent season over 16 games.
I'd aay the cons outweigh the pros and the starting point should be we expect a lower W-L record, maybe 8-8.
Off season moves.
Pros.
Maintained continuity of scheme and players.
Most of our acquisitions are addressing lack of depth.
Return to health of key players.
Bills and Jets apoer to be in turmoil, especially at QB.
Push
Gained Timmons. Upgrades LB if he's as good as he was and he remains healthy. There are question marks because his age turns ifs into IFs.
Pouncey. Still talented but fragile.
Cons
Loss of Vance Joseph
Concerns remain at G.
Depth at RB. Ajai's draft stock plummeted because of health concerns. We have no proven back up who can carry the load.
The Pats seemed to get even better.
Overall, considering that most teams should be improved in the off season, can we say that the phins improved more than most?
Maybe a little bit.
Put me on the books for a 9-7 season +/- 2 wins.
I'm not worried about the SoS. Historically there isn't much correlation between predicted SoS and actual SoS.
I'd say our off season looks like it was focussed on building a winner next year rather than this year. I like that because it is what well run franchises tend to do.finsfandan, Fin D and Simon like this. -
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Last edited: May 22, 2017finsfandan likes this.
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Him coming back is not the sole difference, however I believe this team is built to be stronger at the end however the schedule is favorable to be getting also if there is any struggle, I might be in the middle of the season. What I mean by that is I expect people like Parker and Pouncey to be injured because they are notoriously known to be in around this time of the year
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That's another thing I'm factoring in. Aside from the easy wins at the beginning, the schedule gets tougher, guys get banged up and injured and I just don't think we're deep enough.
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this off season sucks if we didn't not add quality depth. this is what we were told they did
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This is my "no-if-prediction". I don't say 11-5 if Jones stays healthy, if Wake's age doesn't show, if the Draftpicks contribute, if Tannehill improves, if Gase continues to be a good HC, if Howard stays healthy, if Ajaji stays healthy and performs like last season, if we finally got some LB's, if we finally got some Guards, if Shu continues to dominate, if DeVante finally becomes a real Football player if, if, if...
This Game almost guarantees a certain amount of injuries - it's not an if, it's more of a reason to build a roster with quality depth. I don't predict with the hope or guess, that a 5 year QB develops into a Pro Bowler or other player reach their ceiling.
I just have my own opinion about the qualitiy of the roster and Coaching staff:
11-5Last edited: May 23, 2017 -
tougher schedule on the surface, but in hindsight, I'm not as taken aback as I was when I looked at our September schedule last year.
We are a better team. going with same record though 10-6. -
Across Tannehill's entire career, the number of passer rating points above or below what his opponent gave up for that year is shown in this graph:
http://img.pixady.com/2017/05/889624_tannehill_passer_rating_differential.png
Extrapolate that best-fitting line (equation in red) to the midpoint of the 2017 season and you will predict Tannehill will have a 96.5 passer rating based on passer rating points above 2016 average passer rating.
Average passer rating in the NFL has stayed steady last 3 years at 87.1-88.4 (in 2013 it was well lower at 84.1). So if you take all passer ratings of QB's that started at least 5 games in 2014-2016, extrapolate their wins to 16 games, you get this:
http://img.pixady.com/2017/05/336692_expected_wins_vs_pr_20142016.png
Using that equation for the best-fitting line (equation in blue) for passer rating of 96.5 and you get 9.29 expected wins. As you can see with the graph it's about +/- 2 wins in either direction from that point. And as people have pointed out before SoS is hard to predict so no need to adjust for that.finsfandan likes this. -
Something we as Dolphin fans need to start considering that we haven't been able to since JJ's years is that we may actually have a staff that can develop and improve players.
Maybe, just maybe some of these players some are so upset about, will possibly...improve. It does happen you know, with good coaching staffs. -
- We won 5 ugly games where we stunk for 2-3 quarters and stole the W in the 4th.
- We lost 2 ugly games where we stunk for 4 quarters.
- Two other losses were due to a complete lack of an offensive line.
- We should have won against Seattle and NE in weeks 1-2, but it goes back to the 1st point....we pissed away far too many opportunities in the first half. Seattle in particular, we left 19 points on the field in a 12-10 loss.
- We closed the season well because Moore & Ajayi played fairly solid as the defense completely crashed. Even still, the offense was inconsistent.
My point here is that we could have EASILY been a 6-10 team or a 12-4 team...I couldn't find a single game in 2016 where both the offense and defense showed up for 4 quarters. We are competitive but the team is also leaving a lot of plays on the field with mental errors, so it's really hard at this point to say who will show up in 2017.
We have the talent to win the Super Bowl...but will our boys execute with a much tougher schedule? There's just no telling. If I had to guess today, I'd say that we will go 8-8 this season. I've seen enough to know that I'll be changing my prediction towards the end of pre-season though- it all depends on how far the defense and a few key piece on offense come over the next few months.
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