Ryan Tannehill

"cbrad wrote:

The only issue I've had all along is you claiming what you're saying is what valid statistical methodology says. Remove that from the equation so that it's your opinion and you can argue all day long enough me trying to correct something. I mean.. it's not implausible to argue Tannehill probably won't be able to keep up with Mahomes in a shootout. I bet a lot of people would agree with that. But you can't show that based on the statistics we have so far. That's all I'm saying.

That has been mentioned and agreed to several times already by even the most vocal Tannehill supporters.

His goal isn't simply to say that Tannehill isn't as good as Mahomes. His goal is to claim that having Tannehill as your QB is no different than having an average QB. That is his goal because after this season, he cannot say that Tannehill IS an average QB.

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

So damn nervous about this game...just like the last two. Almost as bad as if it were the Dolphins playing.

I feel exactly the same way.

"KeyFin wrote:

Absolutely- it's straight out of Belichek's playbook. You shut down your opponent's #1 weapon and force them to beat you another way. KC is going to come out 8 in the box and Tannehill is going to absolutely torch them in the 1st quarter...just wait and see. =)

Yes, Belichek does that because defensively because it increases the likelihood of the other team losing. So why is that a good argument for Tennessee to do it willingly?

"Galant wrote:

-------------------------------- Thread locked temporarily. ----------------------------

This thread has been left open because there's a legitimate Dolphins focus in seeing a QB in a different environment and evaluating things - what's more, it's an extremely popular thread if a controversial subject. By and large, the thread has been good with members posting some good quality content.

HOWEVER

On multiple occasions I have had to clean up sections of this thread for unacceptable posting and it's starting to feel a bit like...

There is one major rule in these forums, and everyone should know what it is - Attack the post not the poster. When you sign up to use the forums you agree to abide by that and the other rules in the TOS.

We encourage, and always have encouraged, passionate support of the Miami Dolphins and likewise debate within the forums and as such we welcome a variety of opinions and perspectives and want ThePhins.com to represent the same. This should be a welcome place for anyone to come and discuss the Dolphins and feel part of this community.

We want members to remain members and engage more and we want lurkers and visitors to sign up and join in. How do we do that?

One major way we do that is by treating everyone on here with respect - without exception - especially the ones with whom you regularly and strongly disagree. If you absolutely cannot do that, then ThePhins.com isn't the place for you.

So let me be clear about a few principles it seems some people are forgetting:

In order to post here there is no requirement to be right.
There is no requirement to be knowledgeable about football, the NFL or the Miami Dolphins.
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[ATTACH:full]

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We hope that people here will learn and grow.
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In this thread there have been insults and mocking and personal attacks. It is completely unacceptable.

If you find that you cannot respond to a post without getting personal, then go take a breather and post later. The world, nor these forums, won't end if don't hit 'Post Reply'.

Far better to let it go than post personal attacks or insults.

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Ignore them. If you find you need help with that, use the 'Ignore' function to avoid their posts entirely. Whatever the case, however, do not insult anyone or mock them.

There is an idea with some that by ignoring someone they might post about you and you won't see it. Any insults or attacks from anyone to anyone else will be dealt with by the moderators and administrators. The forum can help with that by reporting posts that are insulting or break the TOS in any other way. What won't work is engaging someone in a personal fight. It'll get you both in trouble. A better way would be to contact them directly via PM and try to resolve any issues or misunderstandings you may have. If that's not possible, or things are out of hand or breaking the TOS, or you just want some outside perspective, another tool available to you is to reach out to the mods and admins who can get involved and help resolve any issue.

This thread will remain locked for a short while so that everyone can see this and understand it.

When it re-opens I do not want to have to come back in here and clean up more posts where members are mocking or insulting other members or getting personal. It will not be tolerated. Repeat offenders will get themselves ejected. If it's multiple offenders then the thread might just get locked.

If you want this thread conversation to continue then it is in your interest to help maintain it and not create or exacerbate any issues.

Let's handle these things like grown ups.

Rant over.

Post well, post often, and Phins Up!

Absolutely LOVE this post for sooo many reasons!!

Well done, let's all sit back and hope the Titans can do the unthinkable and get Ryan back to Miami.

Ryan has been a good fit for the titans, he wasn’t here for whatever reason but I would suggest a stud offensive line, a stout defense, and probably the best running back in the NFL currently is helping him a lot! We had none of this in Miami when he was here. I wasn’t loving Ryan at the end and was ok with the departure.

I still don’t think we want him back here. We need to build a team good around whoever is out qb. Glad Ryan is getting to showcase his talents and getting some clout, but we need massive improvement before an average QB can look good behind our online.

"FinFaninBuffalo wrote:

That has been mentioned and agreed to several times already by even the most vocal Tannehill supporters.

/raisehand

I've said it myself, as have others, for sure.

But then the argument turns into, "well if you think he's all that, why would you say he wouldn't win a shootout."

Very disingenuous, and the answer is very simple to anybody who watches the game. If QB skill/ability was the only factor, Dan Marino would've never lost...nor would Mahomes. And nobody's putting Tannehill in those guys' category, but the other side of the argument is holding him to that standard in multiple strawman arguments.

That KC offense is built around blazing speed, with an elite TE there to provide continuity for the QB, along with a proven pass-catching RB. Tennessee doesn't have that...they're not built to win a shootout. KC's defense is parsley, their offense is the meat and potatoes. Titans are a more well-balanced meal. Very basic concepts that escape some.

"KeyFin wrote:

Absolutely- it's straight out of Belichek's playbook. You shut down your opponent's #1 weapon and force them to beat you another way. KC is going to come out 8 in the box and Tannehill is going to absolutely torch them in the 1st quarter...just wait and see. =)

That's on the assumption KC's stack will work against Henry and the Titans OL. Didn't work for NE or BAL, and they have much better defenses. I can't see Henry going under 150 for the game.

The argument, I have always made, is that if you have a bad oline, then your QB needs ways to counter that. Either the QB needs to have Wilson's scramble ability, Marino's pocket dancing and quick release ability, or help from the scheme. That required help manifests itself in many ways:

- a commitment to the run game (not necessarily the success of the run game, but just a commitment to it)

- allowing the QB to change the call at the line based on the defensive looks

- short pass concepts similar to NE's bread and butter...

- play action, designed roll outs

In Miami, Tannehill had none of that help, until Gase actually, at which point he was allowed to audible, there was commitment to the run game, and Landry was an excellent short range target who could generate YAC. He rocked it until he was injured. Now, he's on a team, giving him help and he's in the AFCCG and he wasn't carried there either.

No one is arguing he's elite. All that was ever said, with proper help (which lets be honest isn't crazy or extraordinary help, more like a competent staff) he can play at an elite level. Playing at an elite level with solid coaching isn't the same as being elite. Elite QBs can be play an elite level with less help (though they still need some, it is, after all, a team sport).

"Dorfdad wrote:

Ryan has been a good fit for the titans, he wasn’t here for whatever reason but I would suggest a stud offensive line, a stout defense, and probably the best running back in the NFL currently is helping him a lot! We had none of this in Miami when he was here. I wasn’t loving Ryan at the end and was ok with the departure.

I still don’t think we want him back here. We need to build a team good around whoever is out qb. Glad Ryan is getting to showcase his talents and getting some clout, but we need massive improvement before an average QB can look good behind our online.

Ya that ship has sailed...straight out of the hurricane and into calmer waters. There's no chance he'd come back now anyway, even if they wanted him.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Yes, Belichek does that because defensively because it increases the likelihood of the other team losing. So why is that a good argument for Tennessee to do it willingly?

Because the Chiefs are so over-prepared for Henry and committed to controlling the LOS, Tannehill is going to have a field day with those throws right behind the linebackers.

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

Ya that ship has sailed...straight out of the hurricane and into calmer waters. There's no chance he'd come back now anyway, even if they wanted him.

Its a shame because Flores would use him correctly and we'd be perennial contenders because of it.

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

That's on the assumption KC's stack will work against Henry and the Titans OL. Didn't work for NE or BAL, and they have much better defenses. I can't see Henry going under 150 for the game.

I mean, if they don't stack and try to slow down Henry, then give it to Henry all day long and let them suffer the same fate of NE and Baltimore. I'm expecting them to swarm him though and even then, I agree that 150 yards rushing is an attainable goal.

The part I think everyone is forgetting is that KC is going to score some points and unless Tennessee gets multiple turnovers/stops, Henry alone won't win this ball game. Tannehill is going to have to attack the field and put up some numbers of his own to ensure the win.

"KeyFin wrote:

Absolutely- it's straight out of Belichek's playbook. You shut down your opponent's #1 weapon and force them to beat you another way. KC is going to come out 8 in the box and Tannehill is going to absolutely torch them in the 1st quarter...just wait and see. =)

Why would they continue to stack the box all quarter if Henry isn’t being utilized?

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

/raisehand

I've said it myself, as have others, for sure.

But then the argument turns into, "well if you think he's all that, why would you say he wouldn't win a shootout."

Very disingenuous, and the answer is very simple to anybody who watches the game. If QB skill/ability was the only factor, Dan Marino would've never lost...nor would Mahomes. And nobody's putting Tannehill in those guys' category, but the other side of the argument is holding him to that standard in multiple strawman arguments.

That KC offense is built around blazing speed, with an elite TE there to provide continuity for the QB, along with a proven pass-catching RB. Tennessee doesn't have that...they're not built to win a shootout. KC's defense is parsley, their offense is the meat and potatoes. Titans are a more well-balanced meal. Very basic concepts that escape some.

Speed vs Power.

Speed is on KC side, power is on TEN. Who wins? God knows, but it favors KC in todays football... BUT the game has to still be played.

Cant wait. 5 hours away from kick off. If Tannehill balls this game, the guy is mostly guaranteed if not already A HUGE CONTRACT.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Why would they continue to stack the box all quarter if Henry isn’t being utilized?

Oh, he'll still get his carries...but it's going to be more of balance today than just the Henry show. Tennessee is going to have KC guessing and when they guess wrong, Tannehill is going vertical.

"Cashvillesent wrote:

Speed vs Power.

Speed is on KC side, power is on TEN. Who wins? God knows, but it favors KC in todays football... BUT the game has to still be played.

Cant wait. 5 hours away from kick off. If Tannehill balls this game, the guy is mostly guaranteed if not already A HUGE CONTRACT.

SportTrac already has him predicted over $30M per year...if he blows up in this game and they go on to the Super Bowl, holy...

I don't think he'll push for a max contract through. He wants to keep Henry around, he's said so. I think he'll give a small discount (maybe even slightly larger with the right incentives), to help this off-season's signings...there are some big ones.

And Henry flat out deserves top RB money.

"Pauly wrote:

I’ve gone to the trouble of watching every Tannehill drop back in the Carolina and Houston1 games.

Overall the biggest difference statistically between those 2 games and his other starts is that he had 3 interceptions in 75 drop back. (4% -v- 2.1% on the season). His combined stat line for those 2 games is 49 completions of of 75 attempts for 610 yards, 3TDs and 3 Ints for a passer rating of 87.1.

On reviewing the tape he had 3 interceptions. The first one against Carolina he hit his receiver in the hands close to the chest, the ball went through the receivers hands into the hands of a nearby defender. The receiver had a step of separation and was NFL open, and the defender guarding the receiver had no impact on the play. You might possible argue that Tannehill threw a fastball when something with more touch was a better choice, at the most Tannehill is maybe 5% responsible for the interception, but 95%+ of the blame for that interception is on the reciever.

The second interception against Carolina was a bad throw into the arms of a defender. Up until that point Tannehill had shown very good accuracy, so if you wanted to be generous to Tannehill you might argue that the receiver ran a wrong option. But in the absence of evidence I am happy to put 100% of that in RT17.

The third Int is the one against Houston which hit an open receiver in the hands and he secured the ball then spilled it when hit by a defender. I’m putting 100% of that one on the receiver.

on review of the other dropbacks I could bot identify and dropped Ints or bad passes that a reasonable NFL defender could have intercepted. I am not an expert on film study so if someone else finds a pass that should have been intercepted but wasn’t they are probably correct. This isn’t a situation when the NFL gods gave with one hand and took away with another, in those 2 game the NFL gods took from Tannehill. He got paid back in other games where defenders dropped should have been Ints, so season long it evens itself out but it is important to review the tape in smaller samples.

If we adjust the stats to reflect what Tannehill did we end up with a stat line of 51 completions of 75 attempts for 640 (about) yards and 3 TDs and 1 Int. This gives an NFL passer fating of 99.9. Carolina 96.1, Houston1 108.6. It may not be as high as his other games, but the Carolina game in particular the Titans coaches were channelling Joe Philbin/Bill Lazor with abandoning the run and putting Jamil “a literal turnstile blocks better than me” Douglas in the starting lineup. Even so on Tannehill’s performance in throwing the ball he was significantly better than a league average QB in those 2 games.

I certainly appreciate your painstaking effort in this Pauly.

I have a response to the above but out of respect for the forum and its moderator I'm going to wait until after today's game to participate more in the thread in this specific vein, so as to allow the thread to revolve more around other topics about Tannehill and the game. I hope that gives people more of a break from the back-and-forth surrounding my own points and the responses to them.

"mullingan wrote:

I live in Tennessee so have always rooted for and watched every Titans game this season. The only time I don't root for the TITANS is when they play my beloved Dolphins. Interestingly, when Ryan was traded, and before the season started, I went to my buddy at work who is a HUGE TITAN fan and said "you watch, Mariota will get hurt and Ryan will come in and save the season. I have watched every game Ryan has played. I appreciate all the stats and stuff posted, and by no means am I a talent evaluator, but I have watched football for most of my 55 years on this earth. RYAN is the real deal to my eye test and I think he has a big game today.

^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^
Like you, I’m not like Brad, using mathematical algorithms to determine a quarterback’s or a teams overall play. My “expertise” comes from the number of years I’ve watched football. I’ve watched enough during my 54 years on this earth, starting with the undefeated season of ‘72 to recognize who is good and who isn’t.

Griese was a good quarterback
Marino was a good quarterback
Fiedler was good quarterback
Pennington was a good quarterback
And Ryan Tannehill is a good quarterback

I don’t need number nor stats nor z-scores nor anything else of the such to recognize talent. Tannehill is the real deal and I couldn’t be happier for him

Have my Dolphins Tannehill shirt ready to wear for this afternoon’s game

"KeyFin wrote:

I mean, if they don't stack and try to slow down Henry, then give it to Henry all day long and let them suffer the same fate of NE and Baltimore. I'm expecting them to swarm him though and even then, I agree that 150 yards rushing is an attainable goal.

The part I think everyone is forgetting is that KC is going to score some points and unless Tennessee gets multiple turnovers/stops, Henry alone won't win this ball game. Tannehill is going to have to attack the field and put up some numbers of his own to ensure the win.

KC is going to stack the box. There’s no doubt in my mind about that but that’s going to back fire in them as well when Tannehill rolls out in play action pass and burns KCs secondary with one on one coverage.

Tannehill’s passes have been laste accurate which if you think about it is truly impressive when he’s not throwing that often. Has anyone ever given thought to how difficult it has to be to get into a rhythm when you’re only throw the ball 19 times a game?

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

KC is going to stack the box. There’s no doubt in my mind about that but that’s going to back fire in them as well when Tannehill rolls out in play action pass and burns KCs secondary with one on one coverage.

Tannehill’s passes have been laste accurate which if you think about it is truly impressive when he’s not throwing that often. Has anyone ever given thought to how difficult it has to be to get into a rhythm when you’re only throw the ball 19 times a game?

Yeah, they absolutely have to over-commit to stopping Henry and I think that makes it Tanehill's game to win or lose. I mean, maybe Henry powers through like he has the past month and there's no reason to throw that much, but I think it comes down to that scoreboard more than anything and what Mahomes is doing on his drives. If Tenesssee keeps the lead then sure, run all day long...but if they're down 14 early then it needs to be a healthy mix to keep them in this game.

Two hours and counting folks....two incredibly long freaking hours!

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Fiedler was good quarterback

Just using the eye test, I totally disagree on that one. I still remember the anxiety with Fiedler in the playoffs thinking.. "if the Dolphins only had a good QB we'd make it to the SB!"

Really, those early 2000's teams were wasted in large part because we didn't have a good QB. Fiedler was a liability, not an asset.

"cbrad wrote:

Just using the eye test, I totally disagree on that one. I still remember the anxiety with Fiedler in the playoffs thinking.. "if the Dolphins only had a good QB we'd make it to the SB!"

Really, those early 2000's teams were wasted in large part because we didn't have a good QB. Fiedler was a liability, not an asset.

Fiedler was a gamer, had no quit in him, and was a motivator...that's about all I got for him. Look up noodle-arm in the dictionary if you can't remember what he looks like...his picture's there.

"cbrad wrote:

Just using the eye test, I totally disagree on that one. I still remember the anxiety with Fiedler in the playoffs thinking.. "if the Dolphins only had a good QB we'd make it to the SB!"

Really, those early 2000's teams were wasted in large part because we didn't have a good QB. Fiedler was a liability, not an asset.

It wasn't just Fiedler. Those teams also never met a 3rd and long play they didn't bunk. The defense was good but never consistently excellent.

"Bumrush wrote:

It wasn't just Fiedler. Those teams also never met a 3rd and long play they didn't bunk. The defense was good but never consistently excellent.

Yeah but you can't expect a defense to win the game for you when your offense scores zero points, or just 3 points.

Fiedler's 3 playoff games were a 23-17 win against Indy, and we all know that was due to Lamar Smith having 209 yards, and then a 0-27 loss against Oakland and a 3-20 loss against Baltimore.

Our defense was more than good enough for a SB team. It was the offense that was the problem, and there were 2 issues: lack of a RB which we ended up solving for awhile with Ricky Williams, and lack of a QB. Blame falls mostly on the offense for me.

"KeyFin wrote:

Because the Chiefs are so over-prepared for Henry and committed to controlling the LOS, Tannehill is going to have a field day with those throws right behind the linebackers.

KC stacked the box 25% of the time last go-around - predictably that strategy miserably failed. It will be interesting to see what they choose to do today at the LOS.