Deer in Headlights syndrome.

 

However, as per my post a week ago, the records show that Tannehill used to be excellent under pressure. It was one of his strengths. So the question is - what changed? How does a QB known for handling pressure and throwing well on the run, become a QB who is running less and not handling pressure well?

And then - does this give us hope that Tannehill, contrary to the article's title, can change and improve in this area, perhaps even coming back to a place where it's a strength?

 

Don't take this the wrong way, but was it really a strength? Or was he simply more comfortable in that particular system?

I didn't see your post, Galant, but I'd certainly give it a read.

I think we're seeing a fifth-year guy in his third or fourth system? I can't imagine how tough it is.

With that, Tannehill isn't doing himself any favors. Crappy line or not, his awareness has fallen significantly (or was it ever there?). I think he's waiting and waiting and waiting for a receiver to get open. I think Gase has a tough job evaluating when his guy cannot even get an appropriate amount of time to throw. Kind of a cruddy situation all around if you ask me.

 

"This will have to be short because I don't have the time for a long post right now, but I've been noticing articles popping up talking about RT17 being bad against pressure. This is striking to me because I remember in his first year, and maybe second, he was almost better against pressure than without. So I'm not sure a "Ryan can't handle pressure" story is valid in and of itself. I want to know what changed.

Exhibit A - PFF (2014)
Exhibit B - Phinsider (2012)
Exhibit C - Draft Analysis as Excellent Under Pressure (In this case Draft Sharks)

Just quickly, some thoughts off the cuff:

1 - The first thought that comes to mind is I remember him moving a lot more at the start. More roll outs, more throwing on the move, using his legs. In the last three seasons it feels like he's become more stationary for whatever reason.

2 - The OL hasn't ever been great, but it does feel like the team took a few steps back over the RT years. I still wonder about the loss of Incognito on that line. The guard position instantly got bad and has only looked like it's recovering this year - maybe.

3 - Run-game/Tight-ends - Back at the beginning of RT17's entry we were running with Reggie Bush, then Lamar Miller, and we had Charles Clay. Were the early teams great? No. But we may well have lost better than we thought talent at key spots, and also hurt team chemistry.

4 - Coaching and scheme changes. Bottom line - this team has had holes all over the place and not been efficient in fixing them. I wonder whether all the efforts to fix the WR's etc. and bring in star players at premium contracts wouldn't have been better spent building and reinforcing a solid OL and depth overall, giving the Dolphins, and Tannehill, and better foundation to build on, rather than a leaky dam where they're plugging one hole while other bigger ones open up. I suspect all this change, especially with the receiving core, losing TE talent, losing RB talent, and not fixing the OL until late on, hasn't done a lot to make Tannehill a 2016 QB who used to excel under pressure and at the moment is struggling.

Side note - I've consistently said this will be a watch-and-see year, a season of growth. I here remind myself of that, and the knowledge that if we're going to see anything real from this team, it will more likely be next year than this one."

http://www.thephins.com/forums/showthread.php?89874-Tannehill-vs-Pressure-A-Reversal-What-s-up

 

Thats the million dollar question. "What happened". He used to be much more mobile and elusive and effective on the run. If he never did those things before then I'd chalk it up to he just cant do it. BUT HE DID IT ,EFFECTIVELY. Did too many H.C's , O.C.'s , offensive systems, play calls , schemes , atrocious O.L.'s , etc.... ruin this guy. ??? I would love to know the answer . Its just plain frustrating as hell right now not knowing WHAT HAPPENED.

 

It might be Ryan has mentally decided he does not have the weapons and just mentally locks up.

 

Regardless of the why, I just don't think he's ever going to have it. His pocket awareness and instincts have been an issue since day 1. I don't think he's a natural born leader that inspires his teammates.

He's not the only problem on this team and I'm quite confident that with a better run game and pass blocking, his play would improve. I don't think he'll ever be better than a mid tier QB and I wonder if he is clutch enough to help this team win when the game is on the line and it matters.

 

Miko Grimes got in his head ;)

 

Me and a few others have been saying these same things for 3 seasons. Taking the rest of the world a while to see I suppose. He lacks instincts and he processes things very slowly.

One guy had a very solid reasoning for ryan as a whole, suggesting he is a low dopamine kind of guy. Funny because I think it makes sense.

Get that man some adderall.

 

Funny how that worked out.

A handful of games in Ryan's career it seemed like he came out and played angry...I think he did pretty well in those spots.

This is why I thought benching him for a half in one of these games could've worked out for the good this season.

 

But then he'll put together a great drive and score like he did in Seattle ( until the D gave it away) , and make me think maybe he does have it

 

But that's the problem. He only shows flashes of having it, mostly for just a drive here and there and on rare occasion for a quarter or two.

He's never done it consistently, and after 4 and 5/16th years it's pretty clear the reason is because he just can't.

I mean.. you can't blame surrounding cast when you repeatedly show in the same game with the same surrounding cast you play great for a few drives but otherwise flop.

 

To be fair, actually you can. Because if you look at those drives as examples this year, the pass blocking has held up. Circumstances change from drive to drive, if those circumstances routinely holding him back (pass blocking for example) were to improve, so does his play. They correspond. Where the issue comes in, is when he makes a terrible play, or takes a terrible sack on plays where those negative outside circumstances haven't shown themselves. Nitpicking, sure, but it's true.

 

What I mean is you can't blame the lack of consistency (that he only shows flashes) over 4 years on surrounding cast. I agree you can blame the surrounding cast for a single play, drive or even game.

 

Omg. Sports illustrated said it. It must be so. I'll stick with gase's judgement thank you

 

didn't you say the same thing about Philpin?

 

So, is Greg Bedard saying Tannehill should be cut right now? If not, what is the point of the article? If so, do the Dolphins go with Moore of Daughty?

Could someone please give me some clarification?

 

I think it's pretty clear. He doesn't think Tannehill can be developed into a good QB.

The point of the article, at least my hunch is, to get attention and ultimately sell advertising. There's really nothing to discuss in Dolphin land besides how bad we are. This is a highly discussed topic with this fanbase and a way to generate attention(viewers, advertising, $$$).

 

Gase is simply using this year to determine the future of Tannehill with the Dolphins. He obviously understands this team has a lot holes and isn't going to win many games this season. So starting another QB on a bad team isn't going to help his evaluation of Tannehill.

If this was a potential playoff team and Tannehill was playing as inconsistently as he is, I have no doubt Gase might look at changing QB's. Yet the Dolphins are just an overall bad team and playing Tannehill makes sense because it gives Gase and the front office an entire season to determine if he is or isn't their long term solution at the QB position.

My belief is that Gase will come to the same conclusion most of us have after watching Tannehill the last 4 plus years. That conclusion being that while he shows flashes of being a decent NFL QB from time to time, he just doesn't possess the overall skills at the position to remain the QB of the Dolphins beyond the 2016 season.

I believe the Dolphins will draft a QB in the 2017 draft to develop as their long term starter and will sign a veteran QB to lead the team until this young QB is ready to take over the offense. I do not see Tannehill being a member of the Miami Dolphins in 2017.

 

Not really. I hated Philbin. I said it about tannenbaum when they reupped the contract and got him a new set of receivers

 

The thing with that drive, and so many of QB17's good drives/games/highlight reel, is that it's more players making plays than anything QB17 is doing, it's not him making wow plays, it's the players.

2 consecutive plays made that drive;

the Landry catch and run, this was a bad play on QB17, but he stepped in **** and came out smelling like roses, Stills gets open deep quickly, and just at the moment QB17 should be throwing it to Stills, he looks to the other side of the field, doesn't see anything he likes, short is open for a short gain, meanwhile, Landry across the middle has not been picked up by anyone, lol, QB17 finally sees him, hits him with a 6yd pass, closest guy is downfield about 10-15yards, Landry does Landry things, big gain.

the Williams screen, very next play is a dump off screen that Williams takes 30yds to the 2yd line.

QB17 was along for the ride on that drive, he did his job well enough, but giving credit for manufacturing that drive just doesn't hold water, the OL deserves the credit, if you have to give it to someone, QB17 did absolutely nothing spectacular on that drive, Landry did, Williams did, but not QB17.

 

Time to move on once the year is over. Front office needs to start evaluating QBs for the future right now.

 

Audibles.

 

I know what can fix him.

 

You don't know what Gase is thinking privately.

He's sticking with Tannehill for the year. That doesn't mean he's convinced Tanny is the guy.

 

Disagree entirely. The only way you can come to that conclusion is if you believe Gase is lying and only about tanehill since everything he has said so far he has backed up with action. It's pretty clear he likes tannehill and how he plays. Which is the same way our front office felt the last few years. So either some spots hacks and fans are right or the coach and front office which would know best are right

 

I'll send you a tin foil hat for christmas

 

Potential is useless without the right emotional state (sci guys feel free to call biochemistry). Something in Tanny's noggin' is not what it needs to be as a competitor.

Fix it emotionally. Fix it with drugs. Just fix it.

Or you'll continue to have the race car ability being under-driven by Ryan's brain.

 

Since this is a forum to merely express opinions, you are certainly entitled to disagree with me. Yet it doesn't change my opinion that Gase will use this season to evaluate Tannehill and then conclude at the end of the season that Tannehill is not the QB he wants to continue with beyond 2016.

Tannehill is scheduled to count $20.3 million against the cap in 2017. He isn't worth half that amount. Especially on a team which is 3-4 years from being a legitimate playoff contender.

The only way I see Tannehill on the roster next year is if he restructures his contract to accept far less money in 2017 and he is willing accept that the Dolphins will likely be drafting his future replacement in the 2017 draft.

 

I might be changing my tune on dumping tannehill.
I have been looking around at a replacement and I don't see one in the free agency or the draft.(Maybe Chad kelley?)but I am now thinking have him take a paycut and keep him another year or trade him or cut him.
No way I would pay 20 mil though he is not worth that.
Is anybody sold on any of these top QBS coming out?
I hope we don't waste a top 5 pick on another bust.

 

The reason why tannehill can't be consistent is because he has mechanical flaws..instinctual flaws that defensive situations can exploit..the main reason I talk about his inability to run and threaten a defense is to see if he has the conscious aptitude to do it...he can't even do that...that should tell you a a lot about what's going on upstairs when bullets are flying..

 

"Son, your potential is going to get me fired."

 

Good ole QB purgatory, when you realize you should move on but are too afraid of whats behind door B.

 

This is the fallacy of thinking one can tell with high probability whether a QB will succeed or not. Even for QB's picked high in the first round, success rate is really low (36% since 1999-2014 have winning records). So regardless of whether you think a QB will succeed or not, probability of success is fairly low:
http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2015/04/success_for_quarterbacks_picke.html

The absolute worst thing one can do is to say you don't see a QB with all the qualities you think are needed to succeed so you pass on drafting one high when it's clear you need a new QB (assuming none are available in FA). Did Russell Wilson have all the qualities you were looking for? Derek Carr? etc... Whatever we do, we HAVE to take a chance with a high draft pick.

It doesn't have to be a top 5 pick. Success anywhere in the 1st is similar to top of 1st. And personally, I'd trade a top 1st for 2 1st picks and just use one of the 1st's on a QB. Top of the 2nd is also fine to pick a QB. It's a sweet spot because teams at the bottom of the 1st tend to not pick QB's - they already have a good one. Point is, we HAVE to take a chance with a high pick on a QB. If it doesn't work, rinse and repeat until you get it right.

 

You are probally right I just hope the stupid owner gets somebody that knows what the hell they doing to pick one.
If it's Tannenbaum I don't want to draft a QB early.Fire him and I'm onboard!

 

I don't have to tell you that regardless of the odds, scouting is still involved. ;) And therein lies the problem. Why keep pulling the trigger if the guys flying at you are all developmental projects or running types?

So many of the guys Miami might go after (i.e. Deshaun Watson) are not prototypical NFL QBs and have essentially built their highlights off of designed runs and big play-action. So when we're citing stats from the late 90s and early 2000s, it's key to remember that the QB prospects of today are doing different things than their predecessors in a lot of cases.

You have Mahomes (unbelievable arm talent) but he's raw as hell and will likely stay in college another year. Kelly has ridiculous red flags off the field and according to some is running a super simple offense at Miss just to keep it between the lines. Kaaya is simply not very good according to most. So maybe you have Kizer but many consider him to be flawed in a lot of key areas. It's just a weird QB class unless you really like Deshaun Watson.

I'm a Clemson alum and I watch every game...I'm not sold on Watson. ;)

So when you talk about Russell Wilson, keep in mind that he was a pro-style QB who ran the WCO at NC State. He checked every box except height. He fell and wound up fine despite the fears some had over his limited size.

So the 'odds' you're giving me are one way to look at it but you need to include some knowledge of who you're actually talking about as well.

 

Given that with few exceptions there are multiple QB's taken in the 1st round every year, that should show you that professional scouts think there are multiple QB's worthy of taking that high each year. This year should be no different. Generally, you see QB's starting to be rated higher and higher as the draft approaches, and I expect the same this year.

So for the question of whether we should take a QB high or not, all that really matters is the odds. I mean.. if no one is that good at scouting, then you go by the odds.


Your final point about wanting more info on who to pick? I don't know.. haven't even looked at QB's coming out yet and I don't trust my evaluation skills. But I think for the question of whether to pick a QB high or not, odds are sufficient to make the argument. Just have to hope (as pumpdogs said) we have someone competent doing the picking (though I think a lot of it is really luck tbh).

 

Haha your right.If only we had jimmy johnson to make this pick for us.