we are fighting baltimore and bengals for the last spot. everyone else not catchable. both have much harder schedules. i see 9-7 getting the 6th seed.

 

Right now, we're kind of alone in the middle, between the teams who look to be safely in, and those who look likely to be out. And lets be honest, we're big underdogs next week, in a game where our opponent has a HOFer at QB and we have a guy who can't throw the ball more than 15 yards downfield. We're highly likely to be 5-5 going into our bye.

So, the question then becomes, what does that mean for us the rest of the way?

Well, I think that almost all of us would agree that we aren't going to catch New England for the division title, so we can throw that one out.

Then it becomes a matter of the wild card. In the West, barring injury, KC looks to be a lock for that division. The Chargers are 6-2, and have three games next where they'll be heavy favorites. Its not hard to imagine them at 9-2 soon, and basically uncatchable.

So, then I look at the Bengals. They do have two tough games in a row coming up against the Ravens and Saints. They could very well be there at 5-5 and tied with us after 11 weeks. But then when you look at their final six games, they play the Browns twice, they play Oakland and they play Denver. So, even if they lose their challenging games vs BAL, NO, PIT and LA, they're still in a better position than we are, and hold the tiebreaker.

At the end of the day, even if Miami were to go on an unlikely run over the final seven games, the match just looks rough. It could happen, but we would need help from things that seem really tough.

I'm looking at the final six more as a way for the players to prove themselves going into 2019.

 

Lets take a look at the schedule:

@ Green Bay - L

Lets be real here. Green Bay isn't a good team. That have a HOF QB with a bad team around him. However, they are undefeated at home. Now getting into November, I don't think this is a game we can pull out.

Bye

Late season bye, great time to have it.

@ Indy - W

Coming off a bye against a less than stellar Indy team. This is a game we have to win if we legit what a playoff chance. We get it done.

Buffalo - Home - W

They are in shambles.

New England - Home - L

I know we normally play them tough at home, but that is because we have always got after the passer. We can't do that now. If you can't rush the passer with 4 against Tom Brady, hes going to hang a 40 spot on you.

@ Minny - L

Minny at home, vicious pass rush. Can't see it.

Jacksonville - Home - L

Florida weather in December. Its going to come down to if we can stop the run and force Bortles to beat us. Because our secondary is good enough to pick Bortles off a few times if that is the case. But I think they run the ball well against us and their defense matches up well against us. Too much press.

@ Buffalo - W

In shambles

I have us finishing at 8-8. However, I think that Jacksonville game is winnable. If they come to play defensively and limit the mistakes on offense, we could be 9-7 and sneak into the playoffs.

 

I agree with you on most counts, but I don't think that 9-7 would be enough to get us in. We would likely lose the tiebreaker with the Bengals if they end up at 9-7 also, so we would need them to go 3-5 the rest of the way, and unless Dalton gets injured, I don't see that happening.

I could very easily see a case where we see those graphics on TV where they show the teams that are in, and the teams that are out, and alone in the middle are the Dolphins - still alive, clinging to hope that someone else loses a late season game, but lagging behind the field.

 

7-9 most likely, 8-8 or 9-7 if we get some lucky breaks.

 

10-6 is what we need, but I can't see it happening so many injuries. The offensive line is Swiss cheese right now, no one knows if RT will make it back this season, and Reshad Jones seems to have quit on the team.

 

I think 9-7 could do it this year if one of those 3-3 teams don't get on a hot streak and win out. It seems like somebody does that almost every year so there will be one more name in this dance come week 17.

I am still thinking playoffs but I'm not going to start sweating it until after the GB game. For me, here's the formula-

MUST WIN GAMES- Bills (x2), Jax, & Indy. I'm very scared of the Bills away in week 17 though...it's a game we almost never win. The other 3 games are very winnable.

TOSSUPS- If we can get those four wins, we need to beat either GB, NE or Minn to get to 10 wins and lock things up. If we lose to the Bills away, then we need to win 2 out of 3. I'd say the easiest of the 3 is New England in Miami because we know Brady so well, and we did create AWESOME pressure this week against the Jets. Was it an illusion though because the Jets line is so bad? I kinda think it was.

Plain and simple, this GB game is critical to give us a shot. Minne isn't very good this year either but they're super tough to beat at home. And the Pats are the Pats. We desperately need the defense and special teams to pull out some magic in Green Bay and steal that W.

The wild card is Ryan Tannehill...when will he return? With him on the field we can play mediocre football and still score 14 from deep passes, which is exactly what we need to be in these seven games IF OUR DEFENSE shows up. They've been really good in 7 of the 9 games this year so I have some faith there- they'll give us a real shot if we can score. Could we get Wilson back by week 17 as well? That would sure make things exciting down the stretch!

In any case, I think our key to these games is getting Drake and Grant more involved...we have to get back to using our speed as an advantage. If we can somehow beat Green Bay I'll really like our post-season chances folks!

 

We're also the victims of some bad timing. The Vikings and Colts are now playing much better than they were early in the year. The Bills have been just unbelievably bad lately, but should be better once we play them, when they have Allen healthy. Jacksonville has been missing Fournette terribly, but he'll likely be healthy when we face them.

Thats five of the remaining seven games where had we caught them at the right time, and the Fins were healthy themselves, it would have been much easier. But we likely wont.

 

Since we're officially past the halfway point in the season, this is as good a thread as any to post my updated projections.

AFC North:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4-1) Z
2. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
3. Baltimore Ravens (7-9)
4. Cleveland Browns (4-11-1)

AFC South:

1. Houston Texans (10-6) Y
2. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
3. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
   
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10)

AFC East:

1. New England Patriots (12-4) Y
2. Miami Dolphins (9-7) X
3. New York Jets (5-11)
4. Buffalo Bills (3-13)

AFC West:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) Z
2. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) X
3. Denver Broncos (7-9)
4. Oakland Raiders (2-14)

NFC North:

1. Minnesota Vikings (11-4-1) Y
2. Chicago Bears (10-6) X
3. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1)
4. Detroit Lions (6-10)

NFC South:

1. New Orleans Saints (13-3) Z
2. Carolina Panthers (11-5) X
3. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)

NFC East:

1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) Y
2. Washington Redskins (9-7)
3. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
4. New York Giants (4-12)

NFC West:

1. Los Angeles Rams (13-3) Z
2. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
3. San Francisco 49ers (5-11)
4. Arizona Cardinals (3-13)

In this scenario, I'm assuming Ryan Tannehill is ready to go by week 12, after our bye. I have Dolphins W's against Colts, Bills (x2), and Jaguars. L's against Packers, Vikings, and Patriots (though that one is a toss up). We would be facing the Steelers again in the wildcard, and I personally have a Patriots-Chiefs AFCCG and a Vikings-Saints NFCCG, with the Chiefs and Saints advancing. I have a feeling this is Brees' year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him retire after he wins it all.

Here's a great tool for projecting every game: https://playoffpredictors.com/Footb...EHdY1es82RBW0puUixlEADEvcy62+x519z73-wPZpg9IA

 

I can’t remeber the last time we beat Buffalo twice in the same season. I wouldn’t bet on that. I think we can win Indy, Buf in Mia and Jax. I see us 8-8. Not bad considering all the injuries.

 

With the benefit of a couple more weeks of games, let's see how I think things shake out:

AFC North:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3-1)
   
2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
4. Cleveland Browns (4-11-1)

AFC South:

1. Houston Texans (11-5)
   
2. Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
3. Tennessee Titans (8-8)
   
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

AFC East:

1. New England Patriots (12-4)
   
2. Miami Dolphins (6-10)
   
3. New York Jets (5-11)
4. Buffalo Bills (5-11)

AFC West:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
   
2. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
   
3. Denver Broncos (6-10)
4. Oakland Raiders (2-14)

NFC North:

1. Chicago Bears (11-5)
   
2. Minnesota Vikings (10-5-1)
   
3. Green Bay Packers (7-8-1)
4. Detroit Lions (6-10)

NFC South:

1. New Orleans Saints (14-2)
   
2. Carolina Panthers (10-6)
   
3. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)

NFC East:

1. Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
   
2. Washington Redskins (8-8)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)
4. New York Giants (4-12)

NFC West:

1. Los Angeles Rams (14-2)
   
2. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
3. San Francisco 49ers (4-12)
4. Arizona Cardinals (3-13)

 

It was way, way back in 2016 :up:

Before that it was back in 2011, when two of our six wins were vs the Bills. And then the only other time we've swept them or even won two in a row since 2003 was in 2008.

So, both times that we've made the playoffs since the Wanny era we swept the Bills. If we're going to make it a third time, sweeping them again is mandatory.

 

This is going to be admittedly reactionary in nature, but how can anyone watching the Chiefs/Rams game really care about getting the 6th seed and potentially trotting out THill/Brock again next year. And for that matter, Reid and McVay are just on fire. This game is incredible ... and we are miles behind.

 

When we aren't doing well, all I honestly care about are the Miami Dolphins, and the hope that they gradually get better.

 

Seriously though, screw "gradually." Two years ago the Rams were 7-9 and Jared Goff was a reincarnation of Jamarcus Russell. Add a competent coach and they are a SB frontrunner. McVay belongs. Not just winning but with authority. Progressing. QB stepping up. Good in all phases. Good staff.

Then I look at Gase and our status and can't help but say "meh."

Bears. Again, last year garbage. New coach, qb ascending, defense turned around.

Andy Reid was stuck churning with the limited "we can win with" Alex Smith, said screw it and went after a dude who may be a generational talent.

Meh. We have the year to be sure. But barring something to spark us, I just dont see us being on an ascending level the way some of these other teams are.

 

With the Chiefs, the Bears, and the Rams you see that COMBINATION of good-great QB and good-great offensive-minded coach. That can turn things around really fast in the modern NFL.

 

Not to mention rules that have essentially turned the game into flag football for quarterbacks. Can't count how many games I've seen this season in which defenses had quarterbacks in the grasp to be sacked for a loss...only to have to let up on them for fear of a 15 yard unnecessary roughness penalty

 

Although entertaining that was fundamentally a horrible a game. The chiefs may have the worst defense in the history of the NFL for a playoff team. And the rams aren't quite as bad on defense but it's downright criminal how badly McVay has wrecked that unit. They should be top ten. Instead they're in the high 20s. They make Matt Burke look like Dick LeBeau.

Seems this is just the circle turning back to 2010 football when the colts, saints and packers were ping ponging. The thing is they all had an average to good defense when they won their lone super bowls. It will be interesting to see if you can win a super bowl with zero defense. I suspect that at least one of them won't make it to the big dance, possibly both. Still a lot of football left and maybe they can improve their defenses between now and then but I think I would rather be the chargers, steelers, bears and saints then the rams and chiefs at this point

 

The "no defense" is way overblown imo. Both the Chiefs and Rams defenses made multiple plays, including both scoring and other TOs that directly lead to scores.

The issue is - as TDK notes - it's a QB and offensively driven league, and not by accident. Make no mistake, the NFL WANTS more games like last night rather than defensive battles with three yards and a cloud of dust. The rules they have implemented and the results it is generating are all pointing to this being the future for awhile.

So when you look at the current elite teams this year: Rams, Saints, Bears, Chargers, Steelers, Patriots, maybe the Texans ... are we really close? Can THill put us in that league? What evidence is there that Gase can do that?

 

I heard the same claim in 2010. This is a QB league, the rules are made for offense. Or in 2003 Only the Dolphins would hire Norv Turner. When we cut him nobody will pick him up. He's a dinosaur.

Well what happened is that soon the ravens won a super bowl and that lead to a approximate five year window where defenses were what mattered. And Norv Turner is still earning a paycheck fifteen years after people said the league had passed him by.

And if you want offense why not hire the guy that was calling plays on history's greatest scoring offense ever? The 2013 Broncos. Oh wait......We have him. His name is Gase.

How funny would it be if the super bowl is bears/steelers? Can you just see the tv execs crying in their mocha lattes

 

I loved Norv Turner. His time as Dolphins OC was a good one, and could have been great had we had an OK quarterback. Remember, the Fins lost three straight games in the middle of 2002 because Ray Lucas was the QB, and won nine of the first ten games with Jay Fiedler at QB despite him being Jay Fiedler! With a better QB starting all 16 games that season, that team could have won 13 or 14 games.

 

Yeah. Not having a legit QB killed him. He had some of the best run blocking schemes I have ever seen. Still does. And a real good feel for when to go play action

 

Football tends to be cyclical but you can win the trophy a number of different ways. Great defense, avg offense. Great offense avg defense. Great passing game, avg run game. Great run gm, avg passing game.

Maybe we go through a few years of high octane offenses like the colt,packers and saints era of ten years ago or maybe the bears win and the defensive era continues

 

I don't really care what Gase did as a member of the Broncos because to this point, it has not really translated well to here.

To say "we have heard the same arguments about it being a QB league" before belies the truth that records this year are being absolutely annihilated. It ignores the idea that pro-offensive rulesets have built themselves upon those already pro-offensive 2010 rulesets. It ignores the idea that ratings for this year, a year in which offensive records are falling like dominoes, are up and the league is thrilled. It also - perhaps more importantly - ignores the trends we are seeing at lower levels of football in HS and College with the proliferation of offense.

To be clear, I am not saying defense has no place, or that we can ignore defense, or that we should not attempt to build a solid defense. Teams like the Vikings last year and the Bears this year show that defense can still go a long way. But it ignores that both of these teams success is also correlated with a big jump in offensive production.

And again, I think to say that there was no defense in the game last night is wrongheaded. The offenses were just THAT good, the coaching and gameplanning just THAT good. The defenses on both sides made plays, got big sacks and big hits, forced punts at crucial times. Aaron Donald and Justin Houston were disruptive. In the end, it just didn't matter. You watch Goff throw that indefensible beauty of a TD pass with a minute or so left and just wish we could find a QB of that caliber, let alone a Mahomes. And remember, after his rookie year, everyone thought Goff was Russell 2.0. Yet in comes an apparently actual genius coach and the dude is suddenly an all star competing for MVP. And we are sitting here in Miami watching the Brock Lobster and wondering if THill can come back and maybe beat an atrocious Bills team twice.

McVay is what we WISH Gase was, and those who still like Gase hope he can be. The question remains - is he? The more I see, the more I question.

If you want another try, so be it. That's your opinion, and I won't say you are wrong. But for me? I go back to questioning what exactly I can hang my hat on with Gase other than excuses. And by god, if we trot out Ryan Tannehill again next year ...

 

I mostly agree with everything you've written here.

However, if Goff, Woods, Donald, Suh, Whitworth, Sullivan, and Blythe all went down how good do you think McVey would look right now? For me, I wouldn't necessarily say he was bad. Instead, I'd look at the roster.

Here are the Rams starting offensive and defensive players from week 1 compared to week 11

 

i remember i think it was Baltimore a few years ago needing everything including the sun and moon not to come out to make the playoffs and everything aligned and they snuck in with like a 2% chance or something. So there is always a chance. In my eyes this weeks game against INDY is the most crucial. if we lose this one kiss the playoffs goodbye. somehow even with the bs the bills have going they will find a way to split with us. i see 8-8 and hoping for a miracle at best, but i think this weeks game is pivotal in our run at the playoffs its a must win. if we win, we ride high against buffalo and take them out and win 2 straight and maybe get lucky in 1 of the next 3 games NE, @Minn and Jax. go into buffalo and see what we can do in the snow.

 

**** man I totally get the injuries, they blow and yeah it leaves us with no realistic chance to be a challenger. But at the same time, if that's the best defense of Adam Gase's tenure? I get they limit what we can do, but I still want to see more from our schemes, I want to see us prepared. March down the field and score. I want more than 13 points against the Jets, half of which came from our D. I want to see OUR D actually perform and be consistent. I want the constant locker room drama to just be done. Look at the Rams after that win and the way they were celebrating and tell me that coach doesn't have his squad on board. Look at Marcus Peters go for Andy Reid and hug it out and tell me even former players who may have been traded in a bitter moment don't still respect him. (Generalized statement here) Look at Pat Mahomes going berserk on the sidelines and leading that team and then tell me "we can win with Tannehill" one more time. And let's not forget, THill is Gase's guy. It's who he has staked his claim as a "QB whisperer" on. But where has that left us? Again, is the best defense we can come up with "well injuries ...". Is Ryan Tannehill a demonstrably better and elite QB if he takes the field Sunday than he was day one of Gase's tenure? I don't see it. Did Gase inspire Cutler? **** no. Has he done anything with Brock? Feh.

Again - McVay is who we WISH Gase was. To this point, outside a few moments, he has NOT. The question we have to ask is quite simply: Are the injuries gimping a genius waiting to be unleashed and be elite? Or are they hiding the fact that he/we just aren't really above average and aren't ready to ascend. If anyone wants to say the former, hey it's quite possible that it's correct. I won't discount it. Maybe the rest of the season bears it out, we go 5-1, get into the playoffs and give, say, Pittsburgh a decent game. Ok yeah I will probably come around. Or maybe we get blown out by a few teams, split the Bills series and end up 2-4 with some really bad losses.

I don't know the answer - I'm not a genius here. I just know that watching the rest of the NFL Elite, I don't see us on that level even if healthy.

 

It's showing up in the stats too. The single largest percent increase in league average passer rating since the merger in 1970 was in 1978 where it jumped 8.01% from the previous year. This year? So far it's up 8.63% from 2017.

2018 is also on track to have the highest PPG since 1970 with 24.12 PPG. The previous high was in 2013 with 23.41 PPG. Not sure I like this trend of the NFL doing what it can to minimize the impact of the defense.

 

its turning into the NBA want high scores no defense, im sure they would love all 32 teams to score points like both them 2 monsters of a team did last night!!!

 

I think it's also worth pointing out that with the explosion of both regular and 'daily' fantasy sports and gambling, there are incentives for the NFL and other leagues to keep the offenses humming and points rolling in so that people are watching the games and generating that ad revenue.

 

The cultures each coach is creating couldn't be any more different. McVay is winning the Rams over with the reclamation project of a roster that Jeff Fisher failed miserably with. He is winning the team over with his concepts and comradery. He's also extremely energetic and personable.

Gase spends all his time whining about some super duper secret offense that he simply cannot unleash with these players (many of whom he had a say in), bumping heads with larger personalities, and dressing down media members. He's the definition of smug and not an easy person to like.

God, watching last night's Chiefs/Rams game left me feeling so envious. This franchise is world's away from ever looking like they did.

 

Yeah I mean this is what I am kind of left coming away with too. I fully admit I might be wrong, and the Gase era has some bright points - but what some folks see as "instilling culture" and "taking over" I see as "dysfunction" and "unable to get people on the same page". And frankly, that kind of frequently comes through in the gameday product too.

 

Bottom line we see the game differently. The Tannehill of 2016 is a franchise QB in the modern NFL. Is he on par with Brees or ROdgers or even possibly Mahomes....no but you don't need to be in the modern NFL. Colleges have only produced one QB in the Rodgers realm in the last decade (mahomes). It would be absurd to continue to try to nab that one in every decade QB since you would have a 97% chance of failure and 3% chance of success. Any gambler who would follow that path would end up homeless. It's no longer the era of the QB. It's the era of scheme and rule changes. You now have QBs that would be backups in the 80s throwing for 4000 yds. Today's franchise QB is Trubisky, Ryan, TAnnehill, Dalton. Once you get a QB on that level you're done looking. Upgrade other positions. And what separates these QBs amongst themselves is not their skill level but what weapons they are given. You think Goff is better than Tannehill. I know he has a better offensive line, running back, tight end and receivers and therefore it's impossible to compare. Let's wait till Goffs weapons diminish or even better when Tannehill's increase before comparing. How many peoe were yelling about how Carr was better than Tannehill because of his one good statistical year. Bottom line people only judge QBs on stats and wins when they should be judging them on what they get out of the weapons they're given. Tannehill throughout his career has had some of the poorest supporting casts around and was still able to produce and get wins.

As for Gase, the guy needed to get his type of players. He didn't inherit a playoff team. He took Philbins crap and willed it into the playoffs first year out even though they had the fifth most games lost to injury in the NFL according to football outsiders. Next year more roster turnover and the 3rd most games lost to injury. Finally this year we saw what he was trying to build. The offensive line had potential, the receivers were dynamic, the running backs had a nice thunder and lightning combination and then.....tbe injuries started again. We need depth on offense, that's a given but you could see the potential in the offense week one even if it had disappeared by week five due to injuries. Now three years of bad luck with injuries is about the limit of bad luck. We should get a healthy year next year or at least healthier year. And Ross agrees. People talk about drafting a QB. Forget that. draft a ****ing exorcist so we get one healthy year out of our team

So at the end of the day you can tell yourself you know more about offense and football and quarterbacks then the offensive coordinator who called plays for the most prolific offense in NFL history but don't act surprised when some of us disagree with your assessments

 

The most prolific offense in NFL History commandeered by arguably one of the game's greatest to ever play the QB position and basically an offensive coordinator on the field. He has none of that here - hence why he has looked average, injuries or not.

 

Btw, "injuries" have become a common theme with this regime over multiple seasons now. There's more to it then poor luck. There's foresight ..... especially with the likes of Sitton, Parker, etc.

I don't think the fans would have minded this season so much had they moved up to get a QB in the draft given legitimate concerns that Tanny might not be able to finish a full season. Granted he ended up missing games for other physical problems, but still. Instead what we're left with is this familiar feeling of Ground Hogs day.

Clearly Gase is among some of the brighter minds in football, but being bright doesn't always translate well ..... especially when you're now the head coach of a football team and your responsibilities are to oversee more than just the offense.

 

Sitton has missed 8 games his entire career

 

32 years of age. Es no muy joven senior! Especially for someone who's been battling in the trenches for 10 years.

In regards to those 8 games - how many of them started occurring as he got older?