I don't have much to say this week since we just watched two really poor offenses waiting for someone else to win the game. At least Brock was safe and efficient; that's all you can really ask for with most of the starting offensive line out. Think about this- I counted three dropped passes by our defenders today, which means that we could have had 7 overall picks (instead of the 4 we walked away with). The defense did its job and that's why we won today.
I was a little worried though- why didn't Jones play? We didn't miss him since it was the Jets but I'm not really understanding the move.
But hey, we swept the stinking Jets folks- it doesn't matter how ugly it was. We've had crappy Jets teams beat Super Bowl bound Miami teams and vise versa...sweeping the Jets is sweeping the Jets.
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I didn’t see all of the game, as I was on my way back from watching Manchester City score six.:clap:
I think it was 3-0 when I put it on.
It was a very scrappy game, but a win is a win.
The defence played well and it was great to see them getting four interceptions.Irishman, danmarino, KeyFin and 1 other person like this. -
Brock was God Awful! I will give him credit for not throwing a pick, but that is it. He was bad in the pocket, bad with time, bad with pressure, bad throwing balls longer than 5 yards, bad throwing balls shorter than 5 yards. This is up there with one of the worst quarterback performances I have seen. But at least he didn't throw a pick, which I guess is the main reason we won the game.
Where was this defensive performance the last few weeks? Since the second half of the Bears game, the Miami Defense has been god awful. Today they pretty much won the game. If memory serves me right, I don't want to check because that game was boring as **** to watch, both field goals were set up by interceptions and the interception for a touchdown. Heck, the defense dropped 2 interceptions and the McTyer drop could have been another touchdown.
Those street free agents helped in the defensive tackle rotation. Minus the facemask, that was probably one of the best linebacking performances of the year.
I am honestly surprised Miami won the ball game because I was waiting for the one lucky play that causes Miami to lose when the offense is putrid and the defense is playing well. I guess I don't mind if Jones took himself out, because this was one of the better secondary performances of the year as well.Irishman, finfansince72, VManis and 3 others like this. -
I am not saying that Miami would have beaten the Lions or the Texans in the last two weeks, however, if the defense would have played as well as they played today, they would not have been embarrassed at least.resnor, danmarino, KeyFin and 1 other person like this. -
For the Lions, I think Matt Patricia knew the Dolphins pretty well and was able to make a good gameplan to beat the defense. The Texans game was a short week on the road which never turns out well for the traveling team.
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Anyway- that pass was an absolute rocket...where was that arm the rest of the day? How do you nail one of the tougher throws in football yet miss on everything else? You mentioned Fales in another thread and I'd honestly prefer to see him as well. I know zero about him and intentionally haven't watched his college games, but he's supposed to have excellent instincts and a very good arm. If we reach a point where the season is definitely over, I hope we give the kid a shot for a few weeks.resnor, danmarino, Surfs Up 99 and 1 other person like this. -
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Congrats to Gase and burke. You tweaked the defense and got a spectacular performance from them. We even got sacks?!?! The defensive line actually kept gap integrity this week and didn't try to run around their blockers. Using Minkah as a CB and FS was great. The communication in the secondary looked good and the rookie linebackers did much better attacking the right gaps, though they still have a ways to go, McMillan especially.
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Let’s not get too carried away with thinking our defense was that great.
3 of Darnold’s intercepted throws came when he was behind in the 4th quarter and in desperation mode, and it’s hard to believe he would have thrown the second pick if he wasn’t behind in the 4th, and the 3rd and 4th picks would have been punts if they were tied or ahead. So 3 of the 4 picks today were primarily due to the game situation, not the defense playing well. Also to note is that we would have had better field position on the last 2 interceptions if the defender had batted the ball down rather than catching them as they both were on 4th and long. On the 3rd interception we would have started with the ball on the edge of field goal range if it had been batted down. So the smart play would have been to take the turnover on downs and hope the O could make 5 or 6 yards on three plays for the field goal.
Discounting the last interception that was made, which came as time ran out, the O was only able to generate 3 points from the 2 drives which followed the interceptions. Without the pick 6 it’s a tied game.
Even then the Jets generated more yards/passing attempt and more yards/rush than the phins.
So it is great to beat the jets, but the Pats, KC or the Rams would have dropped 50 on us today.Last edited: Nov 5, 2018Rock Sexton likes this. -
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I think Osweiler played as well as possible under the circumstances- it's a shame he's not accurate deep. Unlike others here, I like him as a QB because of his poise and how he reads the field...he's just not reliable past about 10-15 yards though. He sort of reminds me of Pennington and that magical season and I think we can win with him now; it's just a different type of game plan that works against what we're really built to do (chunk yards).
By the way, do we still have Fales? I remember some great deep balls from him over the past few preseasons. I'd give him a chance to throw the rock if RT can't go this Sunday. Green Bay is really a must-win game if we want a shot at the post-season. I know it's silly to even think about that at this point but anything can happen in the NFL. -
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The Dolphins defense is supposed to be historically bad right now and yet they held the Jets to their lowest output of the season.
I, for one, am not going to say this win, as ugly as it was, was pure luck or only because the Jets are bad.Irishman, VManis, adamprez2003 and 3 others like this. -
Why is it do difficult for some to state that the defense played a good game.
Even more impressive is that they had little help from the offense.Irishman, adamprez2003, resnor and 3 others like this. -
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Exactly. lol....I hinted at this in another post/thread. It would be like saying, "Mahomes threw 6 TD's in one game. I'm going to subtract those and say he didn't play that well because that number is extraordinary. lolIrishman, resnor and Dol-Fan Dupree like this. -
For example if we look at this link from pro-football reference
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/splits.htm
Scroll down to passing stats according to win probability. The strory is true for other years that p-f-r have this data but the numbers jiggle around a little. The key stats are attempts, TDs and INTs.
Win probability 0-19%
A: 4970 TDs:126 INTs:216
Win probability 20-39%
A: 2816 TDs:69 INTs: 73
Win probability 40-59%
A: 2913 TDs: 108 INTs 58
Win probability 60-79%
A: 3059 TDs 141 INTs 40
Win probability 80-99%
A 3723: TDs 295 INTs 43
If we look at splits by scored differential
Leading
A: 5019 TDs: 257 INTs: 95
Tied
A: 3435 TDs: 130 INTs: 76
Trailing
A: 9027 TDs: 352 INTs: 259
I don’t have the time to break that into percentages, but the numbers are clear enough without doing that.
What that is showing is that the majority of your D’s interceptions and your passing TDs occur when you are already in position to win the game. So sometimes winning causes the other team to throw interceptions, which is precisely what happened with interceptions 3 and 4 on Sunday, and arguably interception 2 (the pick 6). The basic explanation seems to be that trailing teams have to be risky and leading teams can play it safe. Good field position and defenses selling out to stop the run are My hypotheses for the extra TDs when leading.
As for the dropped interceptions, from stats I’ve seen but I didn’t bookmark where but probably PFF, roughly half of potential interceptions are dropped. Which makes sense because if a young kid was great at holding onto the ball he’d become a WR not a DB. So if we exclude the last 2 INTs (because they were 4th down throws that we would have been better off in a closer game to dropping not holding onto the INT) then turning 4 interception opportunities turning into 2 actual INTs is in line with normal expectations.
Going back to the last 2 INTs, we reduced our chance of winning the game by holding onto them rather than letting them hit the turf. In this game it made no difference, but it doesn’t take much imagination to see that holding onto an INT 20 yards downfield rather than letting it hit the grass and taking over on downs at the LOS could be the difference between winning or losing in another game situation.
As for the Mahomes throwing 6 TDs example. It is impressive in a back and forth high scoring game, and less impressive in a blowout where the opposition is throwing INTs and giving him good field position, but more impressive if he has to carry his team back from a substantial deficit where the opposing D is expecting him to pass it all day.
Also I have heard reported, but not seen the numbers, that rate of fumbling is also tied to winning/losing position of the team. Again this makes sense in terms of the losing team having to play riskier football and the leading team avoiding risks.
So my view is that the D had a 0TD, 2 INT game with 2 extra INTs padding the stats.Last edited: Nov 8, 2018Irishman, DolphinGreg, danmarino and 1 other person like this. -
Tannehill is not a great QB but he is hell a lot better then Brock and the only reason he look ok at time is because the plays Gase had to call so he wouldnt mess it uo too much and yet Brock still looked extremely bad in the last too games..Dol-Fan Dupree likes this. -
From what I could get though, you described a safe QB exactly.danmarino likes this. -
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Last edited: Nov 8, 2018danmarino likes this.
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Imo Brock did not play as bad as being hyperboles around here..I’ve seen worse on this team starting in New England..
He’s not better than ryan but posting very close to a 80 rating with no picks isn’t disgusting..
It wasn’t a good performance is the way I would describe it.Irishman likes this. -