Tim Boyle to start vs Dolphins
37 replies
TheHighExhaultedforum_veteranOPThe spread was Miami -6.5, it has now jumped to -9 with this news.
This is going to be a laugher.
I'm confident we'll win, but the more important question is whether the Tua can do well against the Jets pass defense, which is currently ranked #7 with a passer rating allowed of 79.4. Would be nice to get that monkey of "can't do well against a good pass defense" off our back.
btw.. Jets defense overall (by points allowed) is #11, so they have some work to do to really prove they belong in an "elite" category. I pointed this out early in the season, but the perception that the Jets defense is "elite" isn't matched by the stats. They're running out of games to show otherwise. Overall, Jets defense is good, not elite.
"cbrad wrote:
I'm confident we'll win, but the more important question is whether the Tua can do well against the Jets pass defense, which is currently ranked #7 with a passer rating allowed of 79.4. Would be nice to get that monkey of "can't do well against a good pass defense" off our back.
btw.. Jets defense overall (by points allowed) is #11, so they have some work to do to really prove they belong in an "elite" category. I pointed this out early in the season, but the perception that the Jets defense is "elite" isn't matched by the stats. They're running out of games to show otherwise. Overall, Jets defense is good, not elite.
Raiders passing offense is ranked 8th and he had a 106. I think the Monkey is off (frankly was off way before yesterday's game) to any reasonable person.
In fact, the Raider's defense is ranked just below the Jets currently.
After yesterday I'm hoping that the Jets defense has hung up the towel. They have no chance of making the postseason and maybe they're sick of risking their health for an offense that couldn't beat a high school JV squad.
At the beginning of the season I thought we'd split with them. I now think we now have a great chance of sweeping them.
The key (like most games) will be turnovers.
My prediction(s):
If we win the turnover battle:
Miami 23
Jets 9
If we lose the turnover battle:
Miami 17
Jets 10
You could worry about them getting some kind of random spark but he is probably a even worse QB who is only on the team because Rodgers likes him
Two Tacossubscriber"cbrad wrote:
I'm confident we'll win, but the more important question is whether the Tua can do well against the Jets pass defense, which is currently ranked #7 with a passer rating allowed of 79.4. Would be nice to get that monkey of "can't do well against a good pass defense" off our back.
btw.. Jets defense overall (by points allowed) is #11, so they have some work to do to really prove they belong in an "elite" category. I pointed this out early in the season, but the perception the Jets defense is "elite" isn't matched by the stats. They're running out of games to show otherwise. Overall, Jets defense is good, not elite.
I think the issues of the Jets O impact the D. Lowest 3rd down conversion rate by far, lowest number of first downs per game, and so forth. That D has so much pressure on it. And, they aren't the Lewis led Ravens, but no one is with todays rules. My point is, I think they are better than their numbers.
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"It's a bunch of drunk, mid-30s type of crowd who are very well-educated," Evans said. "Much more vocal. A little bit more crazy. It's a little nastier playing down there, to be honest."
--Sounders Midfielder Brad Evans on Portland vs Seattle Fans--
"danmarino wrote:
Raiders passing offense is ranked 8th and he had a 106. I think the Monkey is off (frankly was off way before yesterday's game) to any reasonable person.
In fact, the Raider's defense is ranked just below the Jets currently.
Raiders are currently ranked 14th, giving up an 87.5 rating on average:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm
[ATTACH:full]
"cbrad wrote:
Raiders are currently ranked 14th, giving up an 87.5 rating on average:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm[ATTACH:full]
I misread your initial post and thought you were talking about passing defense and that the Jets were ranked 7th. The Raiders are ranked 8th in passing defense. I just looked at the Jets are ranked 5th in passing defense.
*Edit- Raiders WERE ranked 8th. After yesterday they are now 11th.
firedanforum_veteranI'm waiting for the Jets D to turn against it's O.They have to be frustrated.
"danmarino wrote:
I misread your initial post and thought you were talking about passing defense and that the Jets were ranked 7th. The Raiders are ranked 8th in passing defense. I just looked at the Jets are ranked 5th in passing defense.
*Edit- Raiders WERE ranked 8th. After yesterday they are now 11th.
Umm.. I just linked to you the passer rating allowed. Raiders are ranked 14th in passer rating allowed (what I'm calling passing defense because that has the highest correlation to win% among passing defense stats). Which ones are you looking at?
"cbrad wrote:
Umm.. I just linked to you the passer rating allowed. Raiders are ranked 14th in passer rating allowed (what I'm calling passing defense because that has the highest correlation to win% among passing defense stats). Which ones are you looking at?
Yes. You're looking at passer rating and I was talking about passing yards allowed. I thought that's what you meant in your initial post.
Here is the Raiders current ranking in passing yards allowed. They were 8th before Tua put up over 300 yesterday.
[ATTACH:full]
a lot of arrogance being expressed in this thread about how we will easily beat the Jets. The same was being said about the Raiders game. One thing for sure is that our QB will need to perform better than yesterday.
"danmarino wrote:
Yes. You're looking at passer rating and I was talking about passing yards allowed. I thought that's what you meant in your initial post.
Here is the Raiders current ranking in passing yards allowed. They were 8th before Tua put up over 300 yesterday.
[ATTACH:full]
I see. In the SB era, the average correlation between passer rating allowed and win% is -0.59, while it's -0.18 for passing yards allowed.
That translates to 34.8% of variation in win% explained by passer rating allowed, and 3.2% of variation in win% explained by passing yards allowed. So looking at passing yards allowed really tells you nearly nothing about what matters for predicting win%. Better to go with passer rating allowed, if the goal is to predict win%.
"Alan in England wrote:
a lot of arrogance being expressed in this thread about how we will easily beat the Jets. The same was being said about the Raiders game. One thing for sure is that our QB will need to perform better than yesterday.
We beat the Raiders.
TheHighExhaultedforum_veteran"danmarino wrote:
Yes. You're looking at passer rating and I was talking about passing yards allowed. I thought that's what you meant in your initial post.
Here is the Raiders current ranking in passing yards allowed. They were 8th before Tua put up over 300 yesterday.
[ATTACH:full]
They also only allowed one QB over 250 yards this season and that was Allen who had 274 in Week 2.
TheHighExhaultedforum_veteran"Alan in England wrote:
a lot of arrogance being expressed in this thread about how we will easily beat the Jets. The same was being said about the Raiders game. One thing for sure is that our QB will need to perform better than yesterday.
Who pissed in your tea this morning, Alan?
"cbrad wrote:
I see. In the SB era, the average correlation between passer rating allowed and win% is -0.59, while it's -0.18 for passing yards allowed.
That translates to 34.8% of variation in win% explained by passer rating allowed, and 3.2% of variation in win% explained by passing yards allowed. So looking at passing yards allowed really tells you nearly nothing about what matters for predicting win%. Better to go with passer rating allowed, if the goal is to predict win%.
Oh, I agree that passer rating is a much better way to look at things, I just thought you were talking yards strictly.
BTW, how did you break down PFR to give you defense passer rating allowed? I've looked for that forever and have been doing all the math myself. lol
"Alan in England wrote:
a lot of arrogance being expressed in this thread about how we will easily beat the Jets. The same was being said about the Raiders game. One thing for sure is that our QB will need to perform better than yesterday.
Who wrote that it would be easy?
"danmarino wrote:
Oh, I agree that passer rating is a much better way to look at things, I just thought you were talking yards strictly.
BTW, how did you break down PFR to give you defense passer rating allowed? I've looked for that forever and have been doing all the math myself. lol
Go to this link:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm
Scroll down to "Passing Defense" (3rd table), and just sort by "Rate".
Rick 1966forum_veteran"Alan in England wrote:
a lot of arrogance being expressed in this thread about how we will easily beat the Jets. The same was being said about the Raiders game. One thing for sure is that our QB will need to perform better than yesterday.
We would have easily beat the Raiders if not for unforced turnovers. That wasn't anything their defense did, it was sloppy play.
"cbrad wrote:
Go to this link:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htmScroll down to "Passing Defense" (3rd table), and just sort by "Rate".
Damn...I was lazy and just never scrolled far enough. Never even knew that was there! lol
Springveldtforum_veteran"Alan in England wrote:
a lot of arrogance being expressed in this thread about how we will easily beat the Jets. The same was being said about the Raiders game. One thing for sure is that our QB will need to perform better than yesterday.
Never change Alan, never change.
I'm pretty confident if Tua puts up 325 yards, 2 TD's and a 103 rating against the Jets we win that game comfortably.
Springveldtforum_veteran"cbrad wrote:
I'm confident we'll win, but the more important question is whether the Tua can do well against the Jets pass defense, which is currently ranked #7 with a passer rating allowed of 79.4. Would be nice to get that monkey of "can't do well against a good pass defense" off our back.
btw.. Jets defense overall (by points allowed) is #11, so they have some work to do to really prove they belong in an "elite" category. I pointed this out early in the season, but the perception that the Jets defense is "elite" isn't matched by the stats. They're running out of games to show otherwise. Overall, Jets defense is good, not elite.
Is there a points per drive metric for defences? I wonder with the Jets offence being so horrific if their defence has to defend more plays which increase the chances of a big play or score?
edit: Found it on profootball reference. The Jets are 5th best at 1.59 while the Dolphins are 13th at 1.89. The Browns are #1 with 1.24.
Dorfdadforum_veteran"TheHighExhaulted wrote:The spread was Miami -6.5, it has now jumped to -9 with this news.
This is going to be a laugher.
not so sure guys look back over our history with rookie qb against us. We tend to make them look like all pros a lot of the time. They have a legit defense do not overlook these clowns. We need to learn to put our foot on everyone’s throats all the time.