I know folks are all over the map in terms of supporting this team and it's current lineup. I'm not going to make an argument here either way since nothing we have to say actually matters. What does matter? The Colts game tomorrow. I honestly don't think there's a bigger game this season for Gase and Tannehill.
Why?
We just sludged through five uninspiring weeks with Osweiler. He played good enough to win a few games in that stretch, but the offense has fallen to pieces and put way too much pressure on the D and special teams to win ballgames. As of tomorrow though, the injuries no longer matter...who's out simply doesn't carry any more weight with RT and somewhat of a line on the field. Tunsil back is huge....James would be great as well but we did okay at right tackle last week without him. But it just doesn't matter because we have to win.
Technically, we can still lose this game and have a winning season. Heck, we can lose and still make the playoffs. But it's not about that anymore because we have our franchise QB on the field. We waited two years for this and he went 3-0 when healthy, then choked with an injured shoulder against a Cinci team we had dominated. Was it the injury to a superstar that caused the downfall....or is Tannehill just not the guy?
I think most Dolphins fans will reach that conclusion tomorrow at 4:25 PM. If you're on the fence right now, you should be off it in about 31 hours one way or the other.
This game speaks just as much about Gase as well. We are beat up and we are missing superstars....but I don't care. We had two weeks to prepare for this game and I expect to see magic. I have no idea who will be the superstar on offense....Carroo? OLeary? Gisecki? Parker? It doesn't matter because if Gase is who we have hoped he is, someone will step up and win this ballgame. It can be ugly, it can be messy...that stuff doesn't matter. The only thing that does matter is Gase and his franchise QB and three years of promises that he's a superstar on the mend.
It's put up or shut up time- show me Miami. Show me I put my faith in the right personnel by destroying the Colts. Your job likely depends on it. There are no more do-overs, no more forgiveness...we've waited patiently on the coat-tails of that 2016 season long enough. Finishng 4-2 is acceptable....5-1 will restore some faith. But it has to start tomorrow or there's nothing left to buy into.
Beat the Colts or GTFO of Miami. Hopefully that's a clear enough message of what the fan-base expects.
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If we lose this game the playoffs are too unlikely to even discuss.
I say we just win and go from there....:2guns:jdallen1222 and KeyFin like this. -
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Surfs Up 99 likes this.
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Part of a coaches job is to motivate on the road in big games..
Part of a qbs job is to play well on the road in a hostile environment..
So far during the tenure of both dolphins they have failed.
Clock is ticking.mbsinmisc, texanphinatic and Surfs Up 99 like this. -
Well...Keyfin's post got me thinking ( I know, I know, I may have hurt myself), and I looked back at 2016 to see if Gase came up with any new wrinkles for the game after the bye. Since last year we didn't have one due the Hurricane I only had one year to look at. Unfortunately, at first glance, the circumstances back then won't be as helpful to predicting what we might see this year (or will they?). Before the bye, we played the Bills and Ajayi ran all over them for 214 yards and a TD. RT had a decent game passing and threw for 204 yards and a TD. His rating was 99.4. After the bye we played the Jets, and as anyone could predict, we tried to run the ball with Ajayi. He had 111 yards rushing and a TD. RT was just okay with 149 yards passing and a 86.8 rating. We did managed to win the game, but that was mainly because we were able to get Fitzpatrick to turn the ball over with 2 interceptions.
So, looking back, Gase did what probably any HC would do, and not change up the game plan too much during the bye. With the way he was running, who wouldn't stick with feeding Ajayi the ball? This year, we don't have an emerging Ajayi, but I think we do have Gore, so I expect to see a heavy dose of him, if we can get it going. However, things are a little different this year because we haven't been that effective throwing the ball deep with Osweiler. Even by inserting RT, I don't expect the defense to change their strategy of stopping the run and forcing the QB to beat them with their arm. Why would they? RT is coming back from injury and his shoulder still hurts when he throws the ball. If I am a defensive coordinator, as with any game my goal would be to stop the run, but because we haven't been effective throwing the ball deep and RT has an injured throwing shoulder, I would cheat up on the short routes, and have my CBs cover tight. If RT can manage to hit a deep throw or two then I will change things up, but until he can force me to change it up, I would stick with forcing him and his injured arm to prevail.
Of course, I hope I am wrong, but it could be a long day as a dolphin fan. Until we can all see if RT is back to form, I expect Gase to protect him by getting the ball out of his hands as quick as possible. This probably plays right into the defenses' hands, but in a way what is the guy supposed to do? I understand why Gase would want to play it safe. That said, I would love it if Gase game out with a whole new and aggressive game plan to try and catch Indy off their guard. Something like a heavy dose of our TEs, and Drake/ Ballage in the flat or on a wheel route. Open up the whole playbook kind of thing. That's kind of why I went through this exercise. I didn't really discover anything new or insightful, but it was kind of fun thinking about what Gase might do nevertheless. -
Indy is a 3-win team that has struggled just as much as we have. I think the true key to the game rests on defense....can we finally get a pass rush going with the front four and force Luck into uncomfortable situations? Can our young LB's stick to their lanes and not allow the big play? That's what it all really comes down to....keeping the score close enough for RT to find a rhythm and win it in the 4th quarter.
If I were a betting man, it would be almost impossible to bet against Indy. But with so many backs against the wall in Miami, I think we're going to show something special and kick the snot out of the Colts. Maybe it's finally wildcat time....or maybe Tannehill takes 5-8 carries to keep drives alive. I don't know what that x-factor will be but I'm guessing that Gase will come out as aggressive as possible. My mind says we get blown out in this one yet my heart says we win a hard-fought battle.
Again though- if I had to place a wager right now...I'd be Indy all the way. For Gase and RT's sake, let's hope I'm wrong and they figured out a lot more than we expected the past two weeks.pumpdogs and Surfs Up 99 like this. -
He also doesn’t multitask while in play, pump fakes shoulder deeks are at a minimum..
It’s a big reason imo why he stays an average to below average player.
If he somehow has a fu##in simple revelation he actually might be able to help us win the freakin game.Surfs Up 99 likes this. -
I don't think it is as clear cut as we'll know for sure after tomorrows game. I do think (I mentioned this earlier) that this is a crossroads sort of game for Tannehill in terms of his future with us. I don't think his career is on the line by any means, but this game, and it's outcome are probably going to shape our draft needs drastically. I for one hope he catches fire this game and never looks back, finishes the season on fire and leads us into the playoffs. That would be fantastic. However......If you're asking me what I think will happen tomorrow? I don't know...So many different circumstances. I mean it's very possible the I feel one way at the end of the third quarter and then completely different by the end of the fourth. That's how much of a mind**** it is watching Ryan Tannehill. The guy will go into the fourth quarter with a 20-24, 235, 2 TD, 0 INT statline and throw two picks in the fourth. That is vintage Ryan Tannehill....We'll be down by a field goal with a 1:40 remaining with a chance to win the game and he'll take a sack on a 3rd and 1 that leads to a 4th and 10 only to badly overthrow Kenny Stills on the next final crucial play. That is basically Ryan Tannehill. However....In 2016 he did some magical franchise QB things. That specific Rams game comes to mind (happened right around this time two years ago). He was bad for three quarters and then won the game for us in the 4th. It was a complete opposite of what he normally does in big games which is play well for three quarters and stink in the 4th or....Just completely shrink under the pressure and have an awful game start to finish. There are about four different versions of Ryan Tannehill that I have narrowed down.
They are....
3/4 franchise QB/4th quarter awfulness lets draft a QB
Cautious check down Tannehill that can't throw ten yards, but doesn't throw a pick, but also can't get us in the end zone either
Completely awful start to finish Ryan Tannehill
Slow start, finish strong Ryan Tannehill.
I do realize that the defense is going to have to play as well for us. This isn't all on Tannehill, but his level at which he plays will be key regardless. I'd like it if we aren't relying on the defense to bail us out at the end. I'd rather control the game from the offensive side of the ball which is what Gase was supposed to be known for doing.
Either way, we'll see one of those Tannehills tomorrow. Hopefully we catch lightening in a bottle, and he plays a great game start to finish and the win streak begins.KeyFin likes this. -
First game back from an injury isn’t going to define his term as a dolphin.resnor and adamprez2003 like this. -
This game isn't about Tannehill. It should be obvious by now he needs replacement. This game (and the rest of the season) is about Gase. -
resnor likes this.
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And it's a complete fiction that he's never been surrounded by good pieces. In 2016 he had Landry, Stills, Ajayi and a decent enough OL during his so-called "great" 8-game stretch, and he still ranked 12th by passer rating among all starting QB's best 8-game stretches (same ranking as his overall ranking that year). Anyway.. I'm not changing your mind obviously, but for me it's absolutely clear: Tannehill's average and we need a better replacement. -
resnor likes this.
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And no stats are not useless for measuring individual performances. The reason passer rating over a long career (e.g., 10+ years) correlates so well with what many people think are the best QB's is because it's useful for measuring individual performances, but only with VERY large sample size. I've said this before but the logic behind that is that some unknown X% of any team stat is due to the individual, and the larger that X is, the smaller sample size is needed for it to be strongly correlated with individual performance. We don't know what that X is for QB's and passer rating, but it's apparently large enough that passer rating with large sample size is useful for measuring QB performance. -
Regardless, once again, statistics are fine when you keep them to units such as offense or defense but are utterly useless when trying to isolate an individual's worth. There are too many moving pieces that have an influence on each individual play. You refuse to accept that. That's fine. Pursue your fountain of youth quest. When you analyze teams or units stats work. When you try to analyze individuals it's garbage in garbage outresnor likes this. -
Also "garbage in garbage out" refers to the data, not the method of analysis, and the data here is fine so it doesn't apply. The method of analysis is also decent too, limited primarily by sample size which isn't that big of an issue with 2766 passing attempts for Tannehill.
Either way, just keep something in mind. So many people here who like to denigrate stats act like anyone who "knows" the game would agree with their view, yet they disagree amongst each other lol. Have to first make sure everyone who supposedly understands the game has the same opinion given the same data. And that's certainly not true with Tannehill. A LOT of observers think he's not good enough. It's not like there's some serious discrepancy here between what many see and what the stats say over his career (obviously you don't think so). -
The principle also applies more generally to all analysis and logic, in that arguments are unsound if their premises are flawed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_in,_garbage_out
how's Rodgers doing this year. Why arent the Packers 9-2. They have a good defense and apparently Rodgers doesnt need a great surrounding cast?
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resnor likes this.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Football_League_career_quarterback_wins_leaders
It's generally the case that the two are correlated, over a long career that is.
btw.. at the time I'm linking to that someone "hacked" wiki by replacing Tom Brady with a guy named "Garrett Dennis" who plays for "Male High School" LOLOL. It'll be taken down soon but that's supposed to be Tom Brady and the NE Patriots. -
I get your general point, but don’t see how you can say it all hinges on this game. Sure. We’re mathematically still in it... but we’re essentially out without a lot of luck.
But you’re hinging everything on the qbs first game back in five years? After a game we couldn’t protect him without our starting LT or RT.
And he hasn’t played in five weeks now.
I’m not trying to defend the guy here... but the fact you want to say his future and gases depends on this game only... is odd to me. There’s plenty of other ways to have already come to this conclusion. I suspect tomorrow will be going thru the motions for us. What do you really expect from a guy who has played essential three games in almost the last two years when he hasn’t been all that above average to beging with.adamprez2003 likes this. -
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Why is anyone pointing at Landry as a difference maker or as evidence of being surrounded with good players?
adamprez2003 likes this. -
With Landry and Ajayi on the field at the same time you had MUCHO yac potential. -
Landry was not a game changer. That's really the point. 30 years from now no one is going to be talking about Jarvis Landry. If your offense is depending on Landry, your offense is in serious trouble.
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Oh Don’t get me wrong I’m no Tannehill Zealot I think he’s a serviceable quarterback but not one who will win you the Super Bowl unless you Build a complete team around him he will never Elevate put the team on his back and win crucial games. That said trying to say that this one game will define His tenure in Miami is ludicrous. The guy is coming off of an injury and will probably be rusty against a team that is improving every week
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If you want to compare RT to Brady or Big Ben...two guys who have run the identical offense for the past five plus years, I don't see it as an apples to apples comparison. And remember, I've NEVER been a huge Tannehill fan so this is not me saying he's been handicapped or whatever. My only point is that it's not a black/white comparison.
He's improved in the pocket and his deep balls have looked great- but Tannehill obviously hasn't put it all together yet. In my personal opinion, he's so over-coached to never make a mistake that he's simply going through the motions instead of reacting and being an athlete. That's why some of his best plays ever have come in rare moments where the pocket collapses and he's running for his life. He doesn't play with that drive/intensity for four quarters though and that makes all the difference.
I think today will "define" Tannehill since Gase is running out of time. This is the 3rd major injury of the past 3 years and I don't think the "just wait until he's healthy" thing will last much longer. For me, it's really now or never and I think a lot of fans feel the same way. We just need to see it all come together before that huge salary next year....and I think it has to start today.Surfs Up 99, djphinfan and resnor like this. -
Frankly I'm tired of it and can't give that way of thinking any more respect. With Gase I agree the season isn't over yet and will wait to see if he gets us into the playoffs, but Tannehill is in year 7 now (let that sink in). I've seen enough.Surfs Up 99 and mbsinmisc like this. -
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He got the bye. He has his line back (sort of). He has his QB. Now prove to us that we were correct in being patient.
I'm expecting the defense to really show up today so maybe this whole thread is a moot point. Get us that "W" by any means necessary and I'm still a happy camper. A "L" means I'm genuinely on the fence for the first time in Gase's tenure.jdallen1222 and Surfs Up 99 like this. -
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