Here's a start in anticipation of his taking over as the starter soon. After he plays we can use this thread to do an analytics-based evaluation of his performance.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...e-top-quarterbacks-taken-in-this-years-draft/
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Obviously one game means nothing, but it wasn't a good start.
12 for 22, 93 yards, 4.2 yards per pass, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 1 sack.
Passer rating = 80.3 [that's very poor]
EPA per play = -0.45 [that's extremely poor]
CPOE = -16.7 [that's extremely poor]
None of us knows how he'll play the rest of the year of course, but if he played at that level the rest of the year, it wouldn't be surprising if the team lost the remainder of its games. That's how poor that is, and the degree to which that kind of performance at the quarterback position can affect a team.
The team won today by way of its defense, turnovers, lucky "bounces" after turnovers, and a punt return TD. The degree of benefit they experienced from those factors probably won't occur again in a single game all season.Bumrush likes this. -
The team played well on defense and specialty teams and Tua was fortunate his play wasn't the difference maker today.I hope he can build on this and get going with his skills.
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"QBs against the Rams: 116 of 181, 64.1-percent, 5 TD, 4 INT, 6.2 Y/A, 5.75 adjusted Y/A, 4.9 net yards per attempt, 81.3 passer rating and LA ranks third in pass defense DVOA."
resnor, Bumrush, brandon27 and 1 other person like this. -
The Rams D-line was extremely hungry today. Aaron Donald was particularly hangry and scared me at times. We'll know a lot about Tua in next week's game if we see tippy toes in the pocket. We'll know more about our O-line if we see them bounce back strong. For a team with so many young players, it was a great opportunity to learn about what you have and figure out what you need. Personally, I think we bounce back strong.
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We are talking about a top 5 pick, one that will make or break this offense.
I'd much rather debate this than Ryan Tannehill. 7 years of that was enough. Time to drill down down in to how Tua performs.
For the record I LOVE Tua and was all over the idea of drafting him.
But, with 2 first round picks and a guy like Lawrence potentially in play (although I'd say odds are less than 5%), you have to have this discussion.Last edited by a moderator: Nov 2, 2020Puka-head likes this. -
Ronnie Bass likes this.
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... and so it begins :pity:
Analytics. Ruining sports since... well, they became relevant.Ronnie Bass likes this. -
That wasn't a game where statistical analysis of his play is relevant as for most of the game. His goals weren't what the models that measure QB success are built Tua judge for the majority of the game.
Tua finished the 1st quarter with the TD drive to tie the game 7 to 7. The Dolphins had 5 offensive snaps in the entire 2nd quarter. A fumble, followed by the three and out where Williams dropped the only 2 passes Tua threw, and a 1 yard TD run. After that, the Dolphins were up 28-10 for the second half.
At that point, his only job was to snap the ball with as little left on the play clock as possible, and not turn the ball over. Agree or disagree with the reasoning, its hard to deny that is what happened. It also happened with Fitz the previous 2 weeks. -
It was his first start in nearly a year. He is a rookie. He was going against one of the best defensive units in the league. He was going against the best defensive lineman, maybe player, in the league.
I'm not going to over evaluate nor pull a Chicken Little either. He will be fine. I am simply looking for improvement week to week. -
OK.. analytics aside, we have our franchise QB. I think everyone who dissed Tua needs to re-evaluate the way they evaluate QB's because Tua is going to be great. Stats? He's now at 103.8 after 52 passing attempts (which means it's highly unreliable due to small sample size, but I would not be surprised at all if that means he's going to end up higher!)
It's really looking like we have our QB and HC. The Dolphins are back!The Guy and Silverphin like this. -
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This is a good rundown of the Cardinals game with some analytics thrown in:
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.c...kyler-josh-allen-patrick-mahomes-week-9-2020/ -
I really enjoyed this breakdown on PFF:
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-rookie...phins-playoffs-2020-week-9-afc-east-standingsThe Guy likes this. -
What this shows below is that the Dolphins' EPA per pass dropback has decreased from 0.233 with Fitzpatrick to 0.109 with Tua.
Fitzpatrick's figure was 0.71 standard deviations above league average, whereas Tua's is 0.29 standard deviations below it.
That's a difference of a standard deviation, which is significant. The Dolphins are going to need to either keep playing as well as they have been on defense and special teams, or Tua and the passing game are going to have to increase their production. It can't be neither if they want to keep winning like they have been.
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Tua's Y/A is 6.7 right now which is 0.85 standard deviations below league average. Fix that and his EPA will be very high. It's certainly not his TD% or INT%. Lowest INT% in a rookie season for a starting QB (I think that means minimum 6+ games starting?.. not sure) is 0.87 held by Dak Prescott with 4 INT's in 459 attempts in 2016. Worth seeing if Tua can beat that.The Guy likes this. -
That's another problem with passer rating BTW. A running back can reel off a 98-yard run down to the 1 yard line, and if the QB throws a 1-yard TD pass from there, he gets "all" the credit for the TD with regard to passer rating. EPA on the other hand accounts for that.cbrad likes this. -
Small sample size, but another issue is that DeVante Parker's yards per target have gone from 9.1 with Fitzpatrick to 6.1 with Tua. I suspect that's because Tua is playing a more conservative game as opposed to Fitzpatrick's "heave it up and have Parker go get it" style.
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Update on Tua stats after his worst game so far: passer rating after 97 attempts is 100.1. Hopefully the benching today is only temporary and we'll have sufficient passing attempts for the rating to mean something. League average is 94.6.
Oh, and though it's due in good part to luck, he's 6-0 now with TD's to INT's lol. The worst stat with Tua so far is still his meager 6.2 Y/A. League average is 7.3.The Guy likes this. -
Here are some other stats for weeks 8 through 10 (not this week):
This week's EPA per play was -0.28 and CPOE was -4.7, so he'll be worse when these stats are updated.
His passer rating is being inflated by easy TD passes and luck with regard to INTs like cbrad pointed out.mlb1399 likes this. -
Update: Tua's rating after 136 attempts is 99.45. League average is 93.3. I think after his next start we can do some really preliminary statistical analysis, like where the rating (after adjustment) stands relative to other rookies, etc.
Still amazing he has no INT's. Guy has lots of luck, but I wonder if there's something about his throwing motion or style that's naturally making it just a tad bit harder to intercept? Who knows. -
So, Tua now has a 95.24 rating after 184 passing attempts. Compare that to 89.9 for Burrow (404 attempts) and 94.2 for Herbert (455 attempts, though he's going to play another one now). League average is 93.3.
In terms of z-scores Tua is at 0.155. That's useful because z-scores are era adjusted and you can compare to all rookie QB's with 150+ passing attempts since 1978 (the year the passing game changed due to rule changes). For some reason this site isn't showing images correctly right now, but check out the graph here:
https://ibb.co/2M2g6VS
The average z-score for a rookie QB with 150+ passing attempts is -0.5755, and the standard deviation of that rookie QB z-score distribution is 1.0767. That means Tua is top 75th percentile among rookies at this stage. The correlation between rookie z-score ratings and career ratings is 0.4893.Last edited: Dec 20, 2020The Guy likes this. -
Tua's rating for the year went down a bit after today even though he played well overall (that INT hurt him). He's now at 92.54 for the year compared to 96.3 for Herbert. Still pretty good for a rookie. Tua is top 69th percentile right now among all rookies with 150+ passing attempts.
The Guy likes this. -
Too bad the QB rating don't take into account talent around the QB.
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