During the season I noticed watching the games that when the phins weren"t trailing that the phins had a balanced and diverse attack, but as soon as the phins were behind, even by 3 points in the first quarter Lazor started going pass wacky and our attack became predictable and one dimensional.
First I looked at the NFL as a whole. Using ESPN game splits I took QBs who had 299 (*Osweiler had 299 exactly) or more snaps as my cut off and looked at their QB rating when they were tied or ahead compared to their QB rating when behind.
NFL Tied/Ahead 94.9
NFL Behind 89.7
I remember reading a while ago that passing from in front was worth about 5 QB rating points compared to behind, The theory being that QBs in positive situations take fewer risks than QBs in negative situations.
Then I split the QBs into groups based on Football Outsiders rankings.
Top 8 QBs tied/ahead 103.2
Top 8 QBs behind 98.0
Top 8 QBs were tied/ahead 64.1% of their pass attempts
Only 1 top 8 QB (Rivers) threw less than 50% of their passes from behind.
The top 8 QBs were fairly consistent in having their passer rating not varying greatly depending on the game situation.
Middle Tier QBs tied/ahead 93.4
Middle tier QBs behind:89.8
Middle tier QBs were tied/ahead on 47.7% of their pass attempts
The middle tier had some volatility with some QBs being better from in front and some better from behind but most fairly consistent.
Bottom 8 QBs tied/ahead 81.2
Bottom 8 QBs beind 83.5
Bottom 8 QBs were tied/ahead on 35.5% of their passes.
Only 1 Bottom 8 QB (P Manning) threw more than 50% of his passes from ahead.
There was a lot of volatility in the bottom 8. Since a lot of these QBs didn't play full seasons small sample sizes contributed to the volatility, especially for the number of snaps played from ahead.
But when we look at Tannehill's not behind/behind split he is 96.3/85.4 and he was passing from ahead only 30.9% of the time. If we look back to 2014. the split is 104.7/83.6 but he was passing from ahead 43.6% of the time. Because Tannehills ahead/behind numbers are a fairly small sample size in 2015 the number is fairly volatile. For example if a dropped 50yd TD pass (and he had several of those) had been caught it would increase his rating to 99.8. So if we take the Lazor years as a whole: Tannehill's rating for passing from tied/ahead is a very respectable 101.2 Tannehill's rating for passing from being being a dismal 84.6
If in 2015 Tannehill had thrown from ahead at the same percentage as in 2014 his rating would be 90.14 If in 2014 Tannehill had thrown from behind at the same percentage as in 2015 his rating would be 90.11. So basically Tannehill's play stayed at more or less the same level in 2014 as in 2015. What changed were the circumstances.
A ha! I hear you cry. That just proves Tannehill is a crappy QB who can't step up his game. But as they say in the infomercials wait - there's more. With the Sherman offense, which truly was offensive, Tannehill's splits were 81.9/81.5 in 2013 and 76.2/75.9 with a 2 year split of 79.17/79.13, which is about as close is humanly possible to consistently playing the same regardless of the game situation. I know Sherman's offense had many detractors but his play calling was consistent and he didn't go to water at the first sign of adversity
My impression from watching games this season was that Lazor's playcalling when the team was behind was a major contributing factor to our poor showing. From looking at Tannehill's stats and performance under 2 years of Lazor it is clear to me that Lazor was a great front runner, but a decided liability as soon as the other team takes a lead. If Gase can get Tannehill to perform all the time at the same level as Lazor had Tannehill performing when tied/ahead then Tannehill is a genuine top 8 QB in the league.
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Here come the 15 pages of rehashed arguments.
For my part, good job on the analysis.gunn34, dolfan7171, greyeagl53 and 4 others like this. -
Ryan Tannehill should be better because [*insert former Offensive Coordinator here].
No different then when we had gotten ridden of Sherman. Lazor was supposed to be the guy that got Tannehill over the top, at least thats what most fans kept telling me, I'll hold my reservations till after the season when our QB finally proves it. Happy Easter. -
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Great job digging out those stats.
I think your conclusion is in line with what most people feel Lazor brought to the table (both good and bad). From what we all saw, the Dolphins offense was very bad when it would get stuck in the mud and it seemed to stall out quite often. Certain weeks would just be frustrating as all get out. As I recall, there were many instances where the entire operation just looked pathetic: a pass-heavy mix with a lot of short throws which got eaten up.
On that note, I think it's more interesting to ask why the coaches continued doing those things despite the problems. Was it a product of a simplified game-plan? A bad O-line? A lackluster QB? What were the coaches saying in private that made them believe they were on the right track or that they had to keep things so tightly boxed?
I don't know. Someone who's an expert of Bill Lazor's offense would be able to tell us more about what Lazor was trying to accomplish. I don't think we're going to learn anything more by looking at stats that continually show the Dolphins' offense was inconsistent. We know that much. I think we'd all get a bit smarter if we knew what strategy helped lead to that ultimate end.
The fact that nobody here can provide any detail on that matter is why these conversations remain ambiguous and roll on forever. Until someone steps up with information we don't already have, there's nothing much we can learn from re-hashing the same notions. :( -
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just looking for a certain amount of intelligence from ryan, a sense of awareness, and an understanding as to how to win and convert in critical situations..
If he really wants to improve his game and our chances of improving our scoring average on offense he's gonna need to learn how to use his legs.
I know its been talked about a lot, but he hasn't shown the specific ability I'm talking about since entering the league..until he does his ceiling is close to being tapped out..
At this point and time, besides 1 or 2 read option runs a game, he is strictly, a one dimensional qb..
and, he needs to step up as a leader and figure out a way to be one. -
You have to equate the % of the time both Tannehills play with a lead. So either force both to play with a lead 30.9% of the time, in which case you get 90.1 vs. 88.8 (2014 vs. 2015) or force both to play with a lead 43.6% of the time, in which case you get 92.8 vs. 90.2. Depending on which you choose you're getting 1-3 points difference in favor of 2014 Tannehill.
I agree that's not much of a difference.. just pointing out the stated reason why is wrong.
btw.. I think another story those same stats tell is that Tannehill has been able to improve on playing while tied or ahead way more than he has been able to improve his ability to play from behind, whatever the reason (can't ascribe all the differences to everyone or everything other than improvement or lack thereof in the QB).Pauly and DolphinGreg like this. -
I think it's silly to act like the surrounding cast doesn't significantly impair Tannehill's stats when playing from behind.
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And the stats show Lazor did get Tannehill over the top when he could call plays from an advantageous position.
In 2014 there was a 8 week or so stretch where the Defense was playing well until Rex Ryan exposed our inability to defend the run. In that time everyone was saying how Tannehill was stepping up,
Last year after games against the Titans and Texans everyone was back on the Ryan Tannehill Bandwagon, then Bill Belichek rolls into town, exposes the Defense again.cuchulainn likes this. -
The question at the end of the day really boils down to whether the performance difference is due to the QB's performance or the OC's playcalling. If it was a one year sample then there sufficient volatility in the stats not to draw definitive conclusions. The Sherman years baseline shows that RT can be consistent regardless of game situation. If the 2012/2013 seasons showed RT had a QBR gap when playing from behind I'd be saying that RT is a chocolate QB who melts when the heat is on.
That's why I believe that the cause of the differential was the OC's playcallingin different game situations. -
It's not like Dallas Thomas blocks like superman when RT has a lead and then blocks like a blind arthritic grandmother when RT is behind. He blocks like a blind arthritic grandmother all the time. -
I think this is true, but it won't give you a lot of the specifics and particular circumstances. Of course most QBs play better with a lead. It makes the play calling much easier. Yes, Lazor certainly appeared to get nervous and would start throwing the ball too much. That probably happens with most OCs given certain circumstances.
I always thought Lazor was overrated and kind of "meh", but look what happened with Cambell. He was going to be the old school, smash mouth, pound the ball more of a type of coach and it worked for a couple of games against bad teams, but when the s--t started hitting the fan and things weren't going so well, the same thing started happening under Cambell's watch. People were crucifying Philbin and Lazor for the same exact thing. It's circumstantial.
Tanne is not as bad as some want to make him out to be, but there are certain aspects of his game which he will need to improve this year. He will need to have better recognition and awareness. It still needs to slow down for him a bit. Recently, on NFLN, they were breaking down some plays where Tanne had enough time and had receivers who he could have gotten the ball to, but didn't recognize or pull the trigger and just took the sack. That needs to improve. I do have confidence that, after having studied that film of Tanne, Gase is well aware of this and they will work together to correct that issue. There is a lot of good in Tanne's game and skill set and I have confidence that this regime will bring out the best in him.CrunchTime, Pauly and cuchulainn like this. -
Pauly likes this.
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Cue 2015 and Coyle makes no schematic change, leading to other teams being able to run at will against the phins. Since Lazor's playcalling tendencies were known opposing teams just dialed in short/medium pass protection and blitzes as soon as they had the lead. In addition it was widely known by opposing teams that Tannehill wasn't allowed to audible out of a play. Which turned the contest from 2 people playing 5 card draw poker, to one where the one player is playing 7 card draw and Lazor is playing 3 card draw.
The problem started as soon as the Phins were down. You go into the game logs and you can see that the run is abandoned as soon as they got behind. Playing from a couple of scores down makes it even worse I agree, but the rot set in sooner. I know that you can look at the splits according to how far a QB is behind or ahead, but I don't like to use those splits too much because TDs and INTs are very volatile in smaller samples. I think about 300 attempts is about when the numbers start to stabilise.eltos_lightfoot and resnor like this. -
Yep, that's pretty much it. Good posts, Pauly.
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You can show all the stats in the world. The fact is that with Tannehill, it has always been the fault of the wide receivers, the offensive line, the offensive coordinators or the head coach. For Tannehill supporters, he is the Teflon Don of NFL QB's. He is never to blame because it is always someone else who is responsible when the team doesn't win or the offense plays terrible.
I am willing to see if he shows drastic improvement under the QB guru Gase. If he does, great. That will mean that he did have valid excuses for his very average play last year and we can only hope he will continue to improve as he matures as an NFL QB.
If on the underhand, he continues his up and down play he has shown throughout his career. Perhaps that will show that he is just a mediocre NFL QB and the Dolphins will need to start looking to upgrade the QB position if they ever want to get beyond mediocre.
I look forward to seeing how he performs over an entire season. I just hope the days of blaming others on the team when he plays poorly and him getting all the raves when he plays well are over. As far as I am concerned, the days of blaming others on the team or the coaching staff for Tannehills shortcomings are officially over. Going into his fifth season as the Dolphins starter, it is time for him to put up or shut up, IMO.Sceeto, gunn34, Finster and 1 other person like this. -
Give it a rest, jw. You are severely misstating people's position on Tannehill. No one is saying Tannehill is perfect. No one is saying that Tannehill didn't have problems. We are saying that the coaching, oline, and defense all played huge parts in the failure of the team. Many people have been on here complaining about Tannehill, acting like he's the problem.
I'm sure you'll be on here raging about Tannehill if the defense routinely gives up 30 points a game next season, and the Dolphins go 8-8. But that would be ignorant. -
And I say that even if our OL, coach and defense stink it up like in 2015. At some point you have to compare the odds of filling out a roster full of good enough players to allow an average QB like Tannehill to thrive vs. finding a QB that can overcome such deficiencies. And I think if Tannehill looks average even with a bad OL, defense and coach again, it's better to gamble on finding that next great QB than paying an average one big $$.
Tannehill's contract is perfectly set up for this with the team taking a small hit if we get rid of him after 2016. Anyway, story isn't written yet so we'll see. But yes I agree this is a make-or-break year, regardless of the rest of the team.Fin4Ever likes this. -
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The entire point of doing the analysis was to look at Whether Lazor's playcalling from behind affected Tanehill's performance. My impression during the season was that it did, and I believe that my analysis is fairly robust and has a large enough sample size to draw some solid conclusions.
Specifically-
- Tannehill's variance in performance is strongly tied to whether he was behind or not behind on the scoreboard.
- His team mates didn't change according to that situation, so they couldn't be a significant causative factor
- Prior to Lazor his performance did not vary whether he was behind or in front. Which indicates that the problem isn't Tannehill melting under pressure.
- It can be easily proved that Lazor abandoned the run as soon as he was behind.
Therefore the thing that changed was Lazor's playcalling when the phins were behind. If you take the 2 Lazor years when the team was not behind on the scoreboard Tannhill's passing splits are-
289 of 438 passes (66.0% completion) for 3322 yards (7.6 yards/a) and a 24/6 TD/Int ratio. Which is basically a season's worth of consistently good performance.
If you think that this discrepancy is mainly Tannehill's fault where's your evidence? It's time for you (as you said about Tannehill) to put up or shut up.
I've put my evidence up but you want me to shut up because it disagrees with your perceptions.cuchulainn, resnor and Fin4Ever like this. -
And then Lazor melted down, and proved to be incapable of adjusting when it was blatantly obvious that other teams had it figured out.
Or, if you subscribe to jdang's theory, Lazor pitched the biggest ***** fit I've ever heard of in the NFL, and intentionally screwed his QB, team, and franchise. -
Tannehill's variance-to-mean ratio for passer rating from 2012-2015 was: 8.71, 5.59, 4.19, 6.67.
For comparison, Brady's from 2001-2004 was: 10.77, 8.76, 7.47, 4.53.
So you can see Tannehill's consistency in his first 4 years is better than Brady's, except for his 4th year. Tannehill's inconsistency went up last year, and it's something one has to hope is just an aberration, but if it's not then it's something to worry about. Other than that, consistency with Tannehill isn't an issue relative to the rest of the NFL. -
Something else regarding the question of what may happen to Tannehill (and the team) with a new OC. Suppose we calculate the correlation between passer rating and wins, and compare that to the correlation between Y/A and wins, over the last 4 years for Tannehill.
Why is that interesting? Because arguably Y/A depends more on QB ability than passer rating, which is more of a team stat than Y/A.
The correlation between passer rating and W/L from 2012-2015 for Tannehill was: 0.63, 0.72, 0.49, 0.51
The correlation between Y/A and W/L from 2012-2015 for Tannehill was: 0.55, 0.78, 0.72, 0.88
The decreasing correlation between passer rating and W/L and the increasing correlation between Y/A and W/L during the Lazor years basically suggests Lazor made more of the final outcome dependent on Tannehill's ability than on the rest of the team. Given that Tannehill is an average QB, that's probably not a great idea.
So one benefit we'll have if the new OC is more like Sherman in this regard is that W/L should depend more on the team (which sadly is crappy haha! but still the right strategy). Of course.. I never liked Sherman either. He was WAY too predictable. -
Yeah, I don't buy Lazor and Philbin going all kamikaze on their careers because they had to deal with a QB they decided they didn't want. It would seem far more likely that they would just go run heavy. If they win, they're geniuses. If they lose, Ross replaces them. But they don't look like asshats.
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Basically he performed like a top 8 QB when they were ahead or tied and he performed like a bottom 8 QB when he was behind. Further, variation according to game situation did not exist during Sherman's 2 years.
My assertion is that it was how Lazor's playcalling changed depending on the game situation that was the root cause of the variation. Because of small sample sizes I would not nail my colors to the mast based on one season. If my theory is correct it is fixable situation.
The other theory is that is Tannehill who was inconsistent. But if Tannehill is the root cause then he should be similarly inconsistent when ahead and behind, which isn't the case.
What I'm suggesting is that the variance was caused because Tannehill was consistent and Lazor was consistent. In Situation A Tannehill is a probowl QB, in situation B he is Mark Sanchez. The appearance of inconsistency arises because the Situation A/B variance is so big and Situation A/B is a very volatile variable. -
Anyway, point is variance-to-mean is a simple way of measuring consistency, and while I didn't calculate it for different game conditions (but neither did you), one can show Tannehill is fairly consistent relative to the rest of the NFL statistically speaking. Only issue I had with Tannehill was the increased inconsistency in 2015. -
Pauly likes this.
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I'm trying to isolate what the root cause of the inconsistent production is. There are basically four possible explanations for the difference in between his performance when he is behind and when he's not behind.
1) null hypothesis, it's just random. With over 1200 attempts included random variation is a extremely unlikely to be the cause.
2) Hypothesis 1: It's his team mates fault. His team mates are the same whether he is ahead or behind so [short version] this doesn't fly for me.
3) Hypothesis 2: Tannehill melts under pressure. The Sherman years indicate that Tannehill is able to perform consistently regardless of game situation.
4) Hypothesis 3: Lazor's playcalling turned to crud when he was under pressure. This is supported by game logs showing that Miami abandoned the run when behind
Now we really can't prove which hypothesis is correct. I say the data supports Hypothesis 3 as the most likely explanation.
If true this means Gase should get Tannehill up into top 8 QB territory without changing anything other than providing a consistent quality of playcalling.
Also, variance to mean measures game to game variance. I am looking at variance according to game situation.Fin4Ever likes this. -
Going back to his days as the Texas A&M QB, Tannehill has never been a consistently effective QB in the fourth quarter of games where his team is behind in close games.
He just doesn't make the plays quality QB's make to win those type games. This happened in college and throughout his NFL career. He just hasn't proved that he is the QB you want leading your team in the fourth quarter of close games.
Of course Tannehill apologists will blame his issues in these instances on everyone else on the team or the coaching staff, but never on Tannehill. To them, it is the OL, the WR's, the head coach or the OC who is to blame when the team fails to move the ball to score at the end of games.
As one of my college professors told our class many years ago. "You can manipulate statistics to prove anything you want to". Tannehill certainly isn't the worst QB in the NFL, but I see him a lot closer to the bottom than the top.
To me, good QB's don't play in the league for 4 years and their team not have a single winning season during those 4 years. Of course I realize none of this has anything to do with Tannehill. It is everybody else who is to blame for the sub 500 record since Tannehill became the starting QB in 2012.
As I stated yesterday. I hope Tannehill can become a better and more consistent QB under Gase. I would love to see him become a top tier QB and be able to lead Miami for the next decade. I just don't know if he will ever be more than he has been so far, which to me is mediocre.
I don't expect much from the team overall this coming season. I think a 6-10 record is likely going to be the best we can expect based on their 2016 schedule. So to me the season is all about seeing if Tannehill can become a better QB under the coaching of Gase.
Because his contract calls for him to start making the big money in 2017. I think it is important he proves in 2016 that he is the long term answer at the QB position for the Dolphins or else the Dolphins need to look for a long term solution once the 2016 is over. -
Yes, the pathetic defense giving up 27+ points routinely, combined with a poor oline, poor coaching, and mostly poor receivers (along with a raw developing for at least the first two years QB) didn't contribute to poor records. See, this is why we continue to have the arguments. If you guys post in a thread long enough, IT ALWAYS comes back to win/loss record. It's insane. Tannehill is not the main reason for the record, no matter how many times you say it. Tannehill, since his rookie year, has been asked to throw more than almost any QB in the league, while having the worst oline in the league, along with bad coaching and poor receivers (and no run game) AND expected to lead his offense to 27+ points in a majority, I think, if games. But yeah, let's lay the blame of the record on him.
Four years in, and the same tired, beat arguments are being trotted out. For four years, you guys have ignored all the arguments against your position, and continued to repeatedly day the same thing, no matter what people show you.
Yet I, and a few others, are the ones accused of having an agenda.Fin D likes this. -
I have no agenda. I would love for Tannehill to prove me wrong, when I say his is merely a mediocre QB in the NFL.
He doesn't make the players around him better, as the top QB's in the league do. The Colts are an example of a team which hasn't had anymore talent than the Dolphins the last four years. Yet when Luck was able to play without injury his first three years in the league, he led his very mediocre team to the playoffs each of those seasons.
When he was injured last year and missed most of the season, the Colts showed that they were barely mediocre without him.
There are at least 10 young QB's with four years or less experience I would gladly trade Tannehill for. Obviously the Dolphins have numerous spots to fill on their roster and Tannehill certainly isn't the major problem on the roster.
I just don't know after four years as the starting QB for the Dolphins if he is the long term solution for the most important position on the team either. To me the 2016 season should be a make or break season for Tannehill with the Dolphins.Fin4Ever likes this. -
See Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers this past year for all the proof needed to back that up.resnor likes this.
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