Why wouldn't we out TUA in late game?

"canesz06 wrote:

Alex Smith took the Chiefs to the playoffs the year before and was playing well. Why would you take him out? We won 5 games last year and may win 7 this year if we're lucky. What are you gaining by playing fitz over your first round QB?

Why would you take him out? Because you desperately need to see what you have in your new QB. How could the Chiefs possibly develop him without giving him game time, especially at the end of games? How could they know what they had? Why would they wait until Week 17, after they had clinched a playoff spot? In Week 16 they were up over the Dolphins 20-10 and then 26-10. Why not put him in and see what you've got?
Horrible coaching.

"canesz06 wrote:

I am engaging but since you don't agree with what I'm saying, it's not proper conversion I guess. And yes, i think tua will be a bust and wanted Herbert. Those are my opinions. It seems like a lot of people on here only want to hear opinions from people who think like they do. I do consider everyone's points but somehow, my points make me a troll. I guess we'll see who was right as the season progresses

Nope. See. You missed the point again.. It's not about who you like or who you don't like. This thread is about why Tua might not be starting. You simply repeat the only two possibilities you see and you refuse to consider anything else. That's the point.

How about this - how do you know you're right that it's only one of those two options? How do you know that it isn't one of the other reasons?

"Galant wrote:

Because you desperately need to see what you have in your new QB. How could the Chiefs possibly develop him without giving him game time, especially at the end of games? How could they know what they had? Why would they wait until Week 17, after they had clinched a playoff spot? In Week 16 they were up over the Dolphins 20-10 and then 26-10. Why not put him in and see what you've got?
Horrible coaching.

because, we ARE NOT making the playoffs this year. You gain nothing by playing fitz. Get Tua some experience so that in year 3 of Flores' rebuild, we don't have an inexperienced QB running things

"Galant wrote:

Nope. See. You missed the point again.. It's not about who you like or who you don't like. This thread is about why Tua might not be starting. You simply repeat the only two possibilities you see and you refuse to consider anything else. That's the point.

How about this - how do you know you're right that it's only one of those two options? How do you know that it isn't one of the other reasons?

Those are two options I believe. You don't believe them. You believe it's other reasons. How do you know that I'm not spot on?

This is exactly why you look like you're trolling. Even when the Chiefs had games locked up, they still didn't play Mahomes. That runs right against what you've said about using garbage time to get some reps in and how important it is. Either a team is damaging their development of a QB by sitting them a year, or they're not. Apparently the Chiefs weren't doing that. They didn't seem to think they were putting in an inexperienced QB to run things when they hadn't given him time on the field. Playoffs or not, if it's such a big deal to have an inexperienced QB step in then surely the Chiefs should have waited another year before starting Mahomes and gradually eased in him? Why turn the keys over to him when you don't know what you've got and you haven't developed him?

In addition, you simply assume that putting a rookie QB into any situation will give you a solid evaluation of him. You've failed to make any reference to the points about the state of the Dolphins and their somewhat unique situation. The Dolphins aren't just bringing in one or two new pieces, they've overhauled about half of the entire roster in two successive years. That's a very different situation than bringing a rookie QB into a stable situation, even if it is a bad one.

Lastly, I asked a simple question and you refused to answer it - again, this is getting very close to trolling. The question is not how do I know you're not right - I don't know. You might be. The point is that you assert that you most definitely are right and everyone else is wrong - so back at you - how do you know that you are right? How do you know that another options isn't possible?

"The Guy wrote:

If you hover your cursor over the column headers on this page:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/schedAdjQBR/dir/desc

...you'll see they've defined all of the ingredients of QBR, and there is nothing there about air yards or QB pressures. The remaining unknowns are the WP level at which performance is down-weighted, as well as the "defensive adjustment." However, "QBR raw" is so similar to QBR that the defensive adjustment that accounts for the difference between the two must be minimal.

Is this a joke on your part???

It says this:
"Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating, which values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced."

And you think (your words) "they've defined all the ingredients of QBR". LOLOL. Have you NEVER read a marketing label before? When a company says "We did X" that does NOT imply they didn't do Y. lol. Seriously, man don't be so naive.

Regardless, ESPN themselves tell you they use air yards and QB pressures as well as MUCH more:
https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating

That means on completed passes, the EPA is divided among the quarterback, his receivers and the offensive line based on how far the ball travels in the air, what percentage of the yards were gained after the catch (compared to how many yards after catch are expected) and whether the quarterback was under pressure. This division of credit is based on statistical analysis of thousands upon thousands of NFL plays.

It's that "division of credit" where the subjective part comes in. There's no real statistical way to do that in practice. Theoretically you can compare variances in some stat (e.g., win%) when you replace one player vs. another and show that variance in that stat was X times greater in one case than the other, thus estimating the relative contribution of both positions. But in practice you can't really get that kind of data. So anyone going around saying they have some way of "dividing credit" amongst players is just inserting subjective assumptions. Same is true for DVOA.

In any case, 10,000+ lines of code makes sense when you try to take into account anything and everything you think might be important but don't know how best to incorporate all those variables. And precisely because you made all kinds of ad hoc assumptions you keep it secret instead of showing the world how brilliant you are lol.

ESPN QBR is a joke. If it's that similar to EPA they should just use EPA and be done with it, but no they'd rather act like they have something special when they don't.

"cbrad wrote:

Is this a joke on your part???

It says this:
"Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating, which values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced."

And you think (your words) "they've defined all the ingredients of QBR". LOLOL. Have you NEVER read a marketing label before? When a company says "We did X" that does NOT imply they didn't do Y. lol. Seriously, man don't be so naive.

Regardless, ESPN themselves tell you they use air yards and QB pressures as well as MUCH more:
https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating

It's that "division of credit" where the subjective part comes in. There's no real statistical way to do that in practice. Theoretically you can compare variances in some stat (e.g., win%) when you replace one player vs. another and show that variance in that stat was X times greater in one case than the other, thus estimating the relative contribution of both positions. But in practice you can't really get that kind of data. So anyone going around saying they have some way of "dividing credit" amongst players is just inserting subjective assumptions. Same is true for DVOA.

In any case, 10,000+ lines of code makes sense when you try to take into account anything and everything you think might be important but don't know how best to incorporate all those variables. And precisely because you made all kinds of ad hoc assumptions you keep it secret instead of showing the world how brilliant you are lol.

ESPN QBR is a joke. If it's that similar to EPA they should just use EPA and be done with it, but no they'd rather act like they have something special when they don't.

In terms of dividing credit, what is the difference between this:

That means on completed passes, the EPA is divided among the quarterback, his receivers and the offensive line based on how far the ball travels in the air, what percentage of the yards were gained after the catch (compared to how many yards after catch are expected) and whether the quarterback was under pressure. This division of credit is based on statistical analysis of thousands upon thousands of NFL plays.

...and this:

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-introduction-to-completion-probability-0ap3000000964655

"canesz06 wrote:

Those are two options I believe. You don't believe them. You believe it's other reasons. How do you know that I'm not spot on?

The point you're missing is that I gave my opinions and then talked about what was happening on the football field that supports those decisions. That doesn't mean I'm right, but I'm advancing the conversation past just giving my opinion...I'm including new thoughts and details.

You're just repeating yourself though and ignoring when people ask "WHY" you feel that way. You can't say "Tua sucks because I think he sucks" over and over again. Tell us the WHY so it's a two-way conversation.

"KeyFin wrote:

The point you're missing is that I gave my opinions and then talked about what was happening on the football field that supports those decisions. That doesn't mean I'm right, but I'm advancing the conversation past just giving my opinion...I'm including new thoughts and details.

You're just repeating yourself though and ignoring when people ask "WHY" you feel that way. You can't say "Tua sucks because I think he sucks" over and over again. Tell us the WHY so it's a two-way conversation.

Unfortunately, there really isn't much to expand on with what I think. I already said that I think that the injury was worse than they thought or he looks terrible in practice or can't grasp the play book. He could have gotten some playing time against NE,Jacksonville and definitely SF.

"The Guy wrote:

In terms of dividing credit, what is the difference between this:

...and this:

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-introduction-to-completion-probability-0ap3000000964655

Completely different concepts. Completion probability is just the probability of completing a pass in different situations. There's no division of credit there between QB and WR, or OL, etc.. Division of credit means you take some stat like EPA and say X% of that was due to the QB, Y% due to the WR, etc. That can't be done purely statistically in practice, which is why ESPN is building in tons of assumptions on how to do that and why you can dismiss what they do.

"canesz06 wrote:

Unfortunately, there really isn't much to expand on with what I think. I already said that I think that the injury was worse than they thought or he looks terrible in practice or can't grasp the play book. He could have gotten some playing time against NE,Jacksonville and definitely SF.

The injury was devastating and some players never come back 100% from it...so that's a real possibility. Medical reports say he's healed fully but the general medical view is that it's better to give him a full year of recovery, so I think that's what they are doing.

In terms of practice, everything points to him looking great...but that's also without contact. So we just don't know. He definitely did not belong in the NE game though because they were getting great pressure....there's no reason to take that chance if you already know what you have. And I think that's the biggest point of them all- we took a look early at Rosen because we didn't know what we had. With Tua, they're extremely confident in him and I think that shows in them benching him for the full year.

"The Guy wrote:

The Chargers are currently 1-4 and nothing special. In fact the Dolphins have performed better this year:

[ATTACH:full]

And that includes tonight's game.

Ok, all that graphic looks like to me is a piece of paper, quartered and Fathead team logos indiscriminately tossed on to it. It has no meaning to.

One of the problems you stats guys have is you spit out things such a deviations and EPA and numbers and and charts and graphs and yada yada yada and expect it to mean something to everyone.

You could post in Mandarin Chinese or Arabic or Dari or Pashtu and I would have an equal understanding of what you stats guys post.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Ok, all that graphic looks like to me is a piece of paper, quartered and Fathead team logos indiscriminately tossed on to it. It has no meaning to.

One of the problems you stats guys have is you spit out things such a deviations and EPA and numbers and and charts and graphs and yada yada yada and expect it to mean something to everyone.

You could post in Mandarin Chinese or Arabic or Dari or Pashtu and I would have an equal understanding of what you stats guys post.

Yeah well, learning never hurt anybody.

The Dolphins led by 26 points when they got the ball back with 4:09 remaining Sunday. It seemed like a perfect time for Tua Tagovailoa to make his NFL debut. Alas, Tagovailoa remained on the bench and Ryan Fitzpatrick finished the game.

“It’s not something that I’m really thinking about,” coach Brian Flores said Monday, via Joe Schad of The Palm Beach Post.

“I don’t know what we really get out of that, in my opinion,” Flores said. “If he gets a couple of snaps in a game, I’m not sure. We’re running the ball the whole time. If we want to give it to him and let him hand the ball off, I guess maybe that will make some people happy, but I just don’t see any real point in that. That’s just my opinion.”

Several teams have used or have had to use backup quarterbacks this season, including Dallas and Washington on Sunday. The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to a gruesome ankle injury, and Kyle Allen left with a arm injury. It might take an injury to Fitzpatrick for Tagovailoa to see the field, but the Dolphins want him to remain at the ready in case of emergency.

“I think every week we see quarterbacks go down in this league,” Flores said. “It’s unfortunate. You never want to see it. I feel terrible for Dak Prescott, seeing that injury, so thoughts and prayers to him. I believe he had surgery today. He’s a great player. A lot of respect for him. You saw some guys go down. The Washington quarterback — Kyle Allen — got hit in the head, and then Alex Smith went in. So you see this go on throughout the league. Tua is our No. 2. He can go in at any moment in the game. He’ll be ready to go when his number is called.”

He'd be more ready if he had to go in for an injury if he was given a few plays late in the game to get him ready.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Ok, all that graphic looks like to me is a piece of paper, quartered and Fathead team logos indiscriminately tossed on to it.

LMAO, I couldn't see that graphic because that person has me blocked....but I just wanted to personally let you know that your comment was the highlight of my entire afternoon.

"KeyFin wrote:

LMAO, I couldn't see that graphic because that person has me blocked....but I just wanted to personally let you know that your comment was the highlight of my entire afternoon.

Log off and come back to the site without logging on. Then you can see all the posts, even from posters that blocked you.

But then he'd have to remember his password. So many passwords.Lol

"Finatik wrote:

But then he'd have to remember his password. So many passwords.Lol

If your browser remembers the password, then you don't have to remember it either way. However, if you don't want to take the extra step of logging off, then just open a separate incognito browser (in Chrome, click upper right 3 dots, then click "New Incognito Window"). That way you have two separate browsers, one logged in and one so you can see all posts.

Getting used to that incognito browser is useful anyway as it allows you to get access to news sites that only allow you to read a limited number of articles.

"cbrad wrote:

ESPN QBR is a joke.

Thank! You!

"cbrad wrote:

If your browser remembers the password, then you don't have to remember it either way. However, if you don't want to take the extra step of logging off, then just open a separate incognito browser (in Chrome, click upper right 3 dots, then click "New Incognito Window"). That way you have two separate browsers, one logged in and one so you can see all posts.

Getting used to that incognito browser is useful anyway as it allows you to get access to news sites that only allow you to read a limited number of articles.

I didn't know that, about the limited article sites.

"cbrad wrote:

If your browser remembers the password, then you don't have to remember it either way. However, if you don't want to take the extra step of logging off, then just open a separate incognito browser (in Chrome, click upper right 3 dots, then click "New Incognito Window"). That way you have two separate browsers, one logged in and one so you can see all posts.

Getting used to that incognito browser is useful anyway as it allows you to get access to news sites that only allow you to read a limited number of articles.

Yes, that incognito browser is awesome...I use it for all kinds of things as well. It used to be great for accessing area-specific broadcasts on radio/tv (almost like a VPN), but unfortunately that doesn't work anymore. I still use it for Herald articles all the time though.

"KeyFin wrote:

Yes, that incognito browser is awesome...I use it for all kinds of things as well. It used to be great for accessing area-specific broadcasts on radio/tv (almost like a VPN), but unfortunately that doesn't work anymore. I still use it for Herald articles all the time though.

You....you just blew my mind.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

You....you just blew my mind.

That's awesome. I only have been using incognito for other reasons. :-)

"canesz06 wrote:

I'm not obsessed with him, I didnt want him and hated the pick. I'll have to disagree with you about being on a good path. The look pretty much like every other Dolphins team from the past 15 years. We are 2-3, hovering around 500 like they usually do. They had a good game yesterday and everyone is excited now. I've seen this movie before. My thought is tua is gonna be a bust and Flores hiding him away is proof of it.

Did you ever think that maybe you're overreacting a tad???