Also worth pointing out that 2017 might turn out to be a pretty good draft for us.. which was mostly on defense. Harris, Tankersley, Godchaux all showing they're probably not busts at the very least and might turn into long term starters (we'll see.. it's still early). And that's after the Raekwon injury which reduced the potential production from draft picks this year.

Timmons also showing the FO might not be that bad. Again though.. it's early so we'll see, but news is good on defense so far. If they perform well against Atlanta I think we can say it's for real and not just due to who we played.

 

I think a good way to see the effect of having better or worse offenses or defenses is to look at how win% is best predicted by offensive and defensive rankings (by points) across NFL history (1966-2016):


That equation is the summary: Win Percentage (WP) = 95.5 -1.66*Offensive Rank (OR) -1.44*Defensive Rank (DR).

First thing to note: each improvement in defensive rank increases win% by 1.44% while each improvement in offensive rank increases win% by 1.66%. That means that across NFL history offensive rank is more important than defensive rank because win% goes down more for each rank you lose on offense compared to defense.

You can plug in our current ranks and see it doesn't bode well. We are #4 in defense but #32 in offense. That comes out historically to a 36.6% win rate.

As to the question of how important a dominant defense is.. that graph actually shows you shouldn't separate defenses or offenses into "dominant" vs. "average" vs. "bad" or so because it's a continuum that's fit well by a plane (i.e. a line along either offense only or defense only.. which makes a plane in 2D space).

So how good does the offense have to be for us to be likely to get into the playoffs, given our current defensive rank? In recent years these are the best-fitting normal distributions to teams that made the playoffs vs. those that missed it:


You need just above 9.15 wins, or 57.2% win% to be more likely to make the playoffs than to miss it. Using that equation from the first graph you'll see that means our offense has to be ranked 19th by points scored with this defense in order to make the playoffs.

 

I like that post above, nice job. Right now we are averaging 8.5 pts. a game from our offense I believe. I won't bother looking it up but I would think we would need more than double that to climb into the top 20 in the current NFL. Also, our defense is fairly thin, like many positions on this team, so we would also need to control the clock and TOP better than we did last year. Are we holding onto the ball enough to protect our defenders from injuries this year? I haven't kept track but our time of possession must be at least somewhat improved over last year.

 

After the Titans game we are now at 10.2 ppg on offense. We need to get to 19.8 ppg to get into top 20.

 

Don't forget Vincent Taylor

 

Which game was it that folks were calling for Burke's head? Haha

I kid. Now, the offense......

 

A huge improvement over Omar.

 

Travis is too big time to come slum with his old friends.

 

I'm tired and just going by memory but I remember 19 (Chargers game), 6 (Jets game), 0 (Saints game) and 9 (Titans game) by our offense. In 4 games those 34 points would be an 8.5 point average. If you want to count the defensive TD (Reshad Jones I think), you would have 41 points in 4 games for a 10.1 average. I have no idea how you get 10.2 even if you count Jones as an offensive player. So there is a TD and another "mystery point" that either I forgot or you are adding somewhere. Either way, my point was that I think this offense needs a lot more production and now that I reflect on it a bit more I believe that even more so, by another quarter of a point than my original quick estimate. 19.8? Thanks for finding that. Yep, these guys need to come together somehow and find a solution to more than double their output.

 

41/4 = 10.25 not 4.1

In any case you're right "offense" shouldn't include the Reshad Jones TD, but all the stats I'm comparing to didn't make that distinction so I left it in (that is, NFL.com officially lists offensive and defensive ranks and they include points by the defense as "offense" whether we like that or not).

Oh.. and 34/4 = 8.5 not 8.25

I think you're tired :smile:

 

I had serious concerns that there would be a big dropoff in our Cbs and S's from Vance Joseph to Matt Burke. Pre-season made me more concerned. Now, I am relieved to see I was probably wrong... but lets see how the Falcons passing attack does versus Nate Allen.

 

Well, like I said in another post, we are 4-0 on the year if we could have scored 21 in each game (since the opponent's highest score has been 20 so far). Last season, Carolina was 18th in PPG with an average of 21 points, which correlates pretty well with cBrad's chart of us needing to be 19th. Tennessee was 14th last season with 22.0 PPG- New Orleans was 12th with 23.3. So it's a pretty crowded area with around 21.5 being average per season.....we just need to score the league average and we should have a chance to be playoff bound.

That may sound like a big jump forward since we got blanked twice in the past three weeks, but our two other games were 19 and 16 points. So we're really just looking for one extra TD from the horrible performance last week....that seems fairly doable if the defense can keep up this terrific pace.

 

Yep, I just noticed that too when I reread my post. Just a typo. Not that dividing by 10 is the type of mental math one should brag about. Either way, I was wondering where the 42 points came from - as I said I was tired. I thought it was the Reshad TD but then I was really confused about your 8th point.

Even without looking at the points, I just don't find that it feels like this is a 10 ppg offense so far, which is kind of sad.

 

We could also say the first few weeks were tough with travel and the hurricane, along with whatever happened with Timmons. However, we failed to score on a horrible defense at the time (New Orleans) so that is even more cause for concern. This offense has to get better. I mean it just kind of would have to improve somehow right? But the problem is we will be getting into tougher opponents now as well. Could be a rough ride unless something big clicks fairly quickly.

 

The Bills and Jags have dominant looking defenses to this point, ours is average at best.

 

Maybe, but in the end all that matters is points allowed, not how the defense "looks", and we're top 5 even after adjusting for opponent strength (did the calculation here: https://thephins.com/threads/this-defense.91994/#post-2983052).

Strength of opposition is similar among the teams you listed btw: Dolphins' opposition averages 20.7 ppg, Jags' opposition averages 21.4 ppg, and Bills' opposition averages 21 ppg (all weighted for games played).

 

I think that our offense just needs to be able to score like 20 points a game, honestly. That would have drives eating up clock, scoring a couple tds and field goals, allowing the defense to rest, and keeping the other offense off. A dominant defense is certainly a good way to win. Has no one paid attention to the Seahawks formula? Nothing about individual pieces on offense, but if your defense is holding teams to under 20, it's significantly easier for the offense to win a game.

 

I know I liked seeing Timmons and Mags out there allowing Kiko to play freely.

 

If we score 21 points or more a game from here out and the defense continues to play how they have, we win 10-11 games....problem is without serious improvement on Offense, that aint happening. I really believe all it will take is one good game by cutler to turn things around....he looked good in limited action during the preseason and in game 1 until he got smashed. we come out strong in a game and I think it builds on itself......I just hope it happens soon.

 

Usually, if a D carries a team for a stretch then the offense heats up, the D finally slacks off a bit because it's relief to not have to put forth a superhuman effort weekly just to win games. It's sort of a 'your turn' mentality. hope that doesn't happen here!

 

This defense is for REAL!!!

Dolphins win baby! 3-2!

 

The additions have made this defense night and day. I can't imagine how we would have looked with a hungry McMillan in the middle.