Yep. He needs to be backup next year to Cohen or Jackson or someone. Enough project enough time and we need to move on from emo Gase.

 

On the contrary. I think Tannehill's stock went up based on the season so far because the last time we had a good offense was with him as QB (technically, Moore did well at the end of last year too.. but his stock fell after this year).

 

Define good. My definition is not "not mediocre". We've not had a good offense this millenia.

 

Well.. I think you guys by now know I like stats haha. And without cherry picking just games 6-13, Tannehill for the entire year had a 93.5 rating. The league-wide average last year was 87.6. So from a purely data driven perspective, Tannehill for the entire 2016 season is best described as slightly above average.

Oh, and sample size is more than large enough for that to be reliable FOR THAT YEAR. Doesn't say anything about how likely he is to repeat that.

 

At his best with the most effort he's slightly above average. So maybe three weeks a year he's the 10th-12th best qb of 32? Yeah he needs to go for a better replacement. Who? Unknown.

 

Passer rating starts to become relatively reliable as a stat after about 150 passing attempts. You can see that here with passer ratings for every QB for every year (up to 2016) in the SB era (edit: actually I think it might be in the salary cap era):


So Tannehill's 93.5 passer rating for 2016 is definitely reliable for that year. As I said before, it doesn't say anything about how that would translate to another year. But in 2016 he was slightly above average.

 

Without doing a game-by-game analysis (I'm trying to code something at work while responding haha!) what I can do is adjust all of Tannehill's yearly passer ratings to a reference year and then average them. So if you let the reference year be 2016, Tannehill's adjusted passer ratings come out to be

2012: 79.55
2013: 85.1
2014: 93.33
2015: 87.9
2016: 93.5

The weighted average of those (weight each by games started) is 87.65. League-wide average in 2016 (the reference year) was 87.6. LOL So maybe the best characterization of Tannehill across 5 years is that he is almost exactly an average QB if you use passer rating as your measure.

 

I don't understand this at all.

This season is showing just how good Thill is.

 

lol. What is the difference between this year and last if not our starting QB?

 

You don't know what you're talking about. RT's YPA last year was 7.7

 

Here are some other YAC stats. There are some pretty damn good QB's throwing to people with top 10 YAC stats.

 

Sigh....

 

I didn't realize that Golden Tate, Edelman, Beckham, and Travis Kelce were RB's. And you don't understand %'s huh? You should do the math before you post anything else.

 

No it doesn't.

Again....he played last year with the same offense, and we became the hottest team in the league. This year without him and...again this is important....the same offense.....is horrible.

There is no reason to think the offense's problems this year are related to anything other than Thill not being here.

 

Honestly, I'm not getting the jump in logic here. The only thing this year SHOULD prove to anyone, is that we have been handcuffing Tannehill to a roster that just doesn't perform at a high level. On paper they look good to great, but potential never translates to the field. Tannehill, has bee putting in above avg QB play while surrounded with the very team so many people are ready to give up on. Imagine if he was surrounded with talent that could make any QB look good... Or just give him good players that consistently perform around him on offense. He has NEVER been what was holding this team back.

I've said it before, if the organization decides to move on from Tannehill, then I'm fine with that decision. It sucks cause I don't believe we really got to see what he can do, but sometimes a change is good for both sides.

 

I'm gonna take a different tack here:

I think it's very likely this season helped Tannehill in the long term. Ryan started from day one, he never had to compete for the job. He never developed the way QBs used to..learning from the sidelines.

Not only has he learned a lot from the sidelines this year, he's gotten a taste of having to watch someone else take the helm of HIS TEAM.

I think Ryan has a Pro Bowl caliber season next year...

 

The problem is you haven't seen enough, so you cannot make a determination.

Some of us have seen enough. He is the real deal. This year should prove that beyond a shadow of a doubt.

 

Dafuq?

Pay attention.

You are a troll. You come here to ***** and do nothing else. You will be banned soon. Mark that down.

 

I guess my point is you can't really have it both ways. You can't say Tannehill should have shown us more, then want all of the team around him gone cause they are trash. Those two things are pretty connected. Believe me I get the frustration. It never should have taken this long to get an average line for him to play behind. What we know from 5 years is simply this, behind a below average Pass protecting offensive line Ryan is sligthly above average. Does that sliding scale move up when he has a better offensive line? I don't know, I just really really really want to know before we get rid of him.


Honestly, the 1st team that Ryan could go to that comes to mind is NE. Tannehill has already shown enough here, that would make him deadly in their offense. I wish I was kidding, but this seems like the exact type of move they would make. Brady can't play forever, and man would it hurt if we give them the next QB that lets them keep abusing us. Even if he doesn't go there, he will make pretty good money somewhere, most likely sign a prove it contract that only gives him 16 or 17 million year one, but 2 years in I guarantee he will be back into the low 20s again. Hell, he might even weigh his options and take less money to go somewhere that can actually protect him with a decent line.

 

I am not a Tanny guy, so if he get's released I have few qualms as long as we are actively finding a replacement. I agree with your last paragraph though - he most likely will need a prove it type deal. Not only because of talent questions, but also the injury question. How well has that knee actually healed now with surgery, will it hold up a whole season.

As for decent lines ... there really are not that many out there. OL is a wasteland in the NFL, in large part because college doesn't develop NFL ready OL like they used to. The best OL out there typically are protecting a good signal caller already.

 

I completely agree on the O-line, but when we are below the average ranking, AND the average o-line is worse then it use to be... well that's just a whole bunch of crappy line play...

 

This is actually completely factually incorrect. NFL1000 broke down screen pass attempts for every NFL quarterback last season.

Ryan Tannehill averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt (389 attempts for 2,995 yards)
Ryan Tannehill averaged 4.53 yards per screen pass (53 screens for 240 yards)

If you take screen passes out of the equation, Tannehill averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt. In 2016, those screen passes actually lowered his YPA by a full half yard.

To put it bluntly, you are not only wrong, but your argument is completely and utterly at odds with the facts. It is actually flat out impossible to be any more wrong than you are on this particular subject.

 

Also, the argument that Goff & Wentz have improved is also helped that both have better Olines this year, which allows them time to use the weapons - Miami, not so much

 

I agree with this completely. He was having his best year and got better as the season progressed and he had more time to learn the Gases offense. I think in his situation you can look at last year more than other years because it was with a different coach and system. Other years he was playing for Philban who i think hurt him with what he made him do, and did not allow him to do. This is the same team with almost the same exact players looking like complete garbage %75 percent of the time with the QB being almost the only change.

 

Thanks for explaining this to him. I replied to him with a "sigh" because it seems every time I explain something to some people here I'm labeled as a "know it all". lol

 

To further that lesson.

The Top 10 QBs in YPA last year who also had a player in Top 10 in YAC:

Thill
Brady
Wilson
Brees

Other QBs that had a Top 10 YAC getter:
Big Rape
Smith
Palmer
Stafford
Eli
Carr

So yeah...outside of Rodgers all of the best QBs in the league had Top 10 YAC guys.