Dolphins vs Chiefs - Can We Win? - GAME THREAD!

There is always a chance.

I doubt Miami will win but it is not impossible

I think this one is a W for the Dolphins, but I do think they need to lay low this week and not give KC any bulletin board material.

I said in another post that if the same Miami defense from the 2nd half of the Cinci game shows up, I would not bet against the Dolphins playing any team.

I really liked what the commentator last night said, the Dolphins need to start thinking like, "They have to play us." We need that mentality that our defense is the one to be feared, the one that opponents dread on the calendar. I mean, think about this- through most of the 4th quarter, Cinci had negative yards ON THE ENTIRE HALF. They were at -6 yards entering that final drive...FOR THE HALF. I know it was a 3rd string QB but still, that's unheard of these days.

The game plan is very similar to Arizona, contain the QB and force him to beat your secondary. I think we can be very successful on defense even with KC's run game. It all comes down to the offense and how they produce...or if that D and special teams can have another legendary performance.

If that same team from the 2nd half of last week shows up, if they keep that fire and anger all week, I think that it will be our game to win. That's a massive ask but I'm really starting to believe in what the baseline of this team can be on a weekly basis...and I think #80 of the Bengals unlocked that true potential for all of us to see yesterday.

We're past that "prove it" stage in Miami now, message received. We're seeing the birth of some true superstars that attack the field like a pack of junkyard dogs. I'm done being worried about the opponent- they have to play us!

In my mind, the Chiefs now HAVE TO PLAY US to prove they're legit. Miami has nothing left to prove in 2020 since they've showed the same thing all year long. Savage brutality...that's who we are out there. Let's see how the Chiefs answer.

Toughest job for the Phins' D?

Kelce?

"Galant wrote:

Toughest job for the Phins' D?

Kelce?

Mahomes and the fact the Chiefs have enough weapons that you can blank Kelce and Hill then still give up a bunch of yards to the other weapons on the field.

"Galant wrote:

Toughest job for the Phins' D?

Kelce?

Mahomes extending plays.

Hill's speed

It'll be something of a chicken/egg question - will the secondary cover the receivers long enough for the lines to bring him down or will the lines apply enough pressure to keep him from finding targets?

What might be the Dolphins' biggest weakness on D?

Run game?
Pass rush?

So the title ismt how I would phrase the question. Of course we -can- beat the Chiefs, that doesnt mean it's a likely outcome.

In order to beat them we need to do a few things we arent particularly good at.

The first is that we need to keep the clock moving and shorten the game. We cant allow this to become a shootout because that will be the absolute worst possible scenario for us. It doesnt matter how we keep the clock running, short passes or the run game, but it has to happen.

The second thing ties into the first. We need to convert on third downs. If we are repeatedly giving them chances to put drives together we could be out of the game by halftime.

Depends on how the offense does.. Looks like it’s gonna be a hot one down there on Sunday (at least for those not from South Florida), so hopefully that plays to Miami’s advantage.

The Chiefs are a great team but, they are far from invulnerable. The key to beating the Chiefs is containing Patrick Mahomes. The question becomes how to contain him? The Dolphins faced this same dilemma a number of years ago playing the Falcons...and how to contain Michael Vick.

Like Vick, Mahomes is most dangerous when he's outside the pocket and able to extend plays. Miami implemented a strategy that no one suspected...they kept Vick in the pocket and let that pocket collapse around him. This is what Miami is going to have to do against KC and with the Cover Zero defense, I think they can do it. By having the "Mosh Pit" all up at the line of scrimmage, and Mahomes not able to lock in on who's rushing and who's dropping back, that in itself can keep Mahomes off balance.

Miami needs to study closely the game film on last season's to Indianapolis, Houston, Green Bay and this season's loss to the Raiders. In the loss to Indianapolis, Mahomes was 22/39 for 321 yards but only 1TD. What did the Colts do to keep Mahomes that far off balance and implement it.

Miami can match up with any TE with how McCain and Rowe have been playing.

The key to this game will be how our LB's can shed blocks that often get Tyreek free and in space. If we can hold Tyreek to subpar game and if Miami can put a spy on Mahomes I like our chances.

I'd also like to see the Phins run hurry up from the get go.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

The key to beating the Chiefs is containing Patrick Mahomes. The question becomes how to contain him?

This is correct, and so far the Dolphins defense has been relatively weak against mobile QB's. We couldn't contain Wilson, Murray, and even Cam Newton who is playing way below average for the year but had a field day against us.

If the Dolphins D is to be SB calibre, that's arguably the one weakness it absolutely needs to fix because those are the types of QB's you'll face in the playoffs — QB's that can extend drives by buying time or if necessary running for it.

Kelce doesn't worry me near as much as he would have last year. Eric Rowe in particular has done a fantastic job on TE's this year. While I expect Kelce is going to get his I don't think he will be the killer. Obviously containing and putting pressure on Mahomes will most likely be the biggest key, but if we try to go Cover Zero and the Pass Rush doesn't get there quickly, Mahomes to Hill is going to break records! Outside of Mahomes, Hill scares me the most. Sub 4.3 speed. We are going to need at least a single high safety all day.

They are going to have to find another way to pressure Mahomes.

Anything can happen on any given Sunday, and it's always possible that there could be a cascade of disasters for KC, but just going on talent alone, no.

"cbrad wrote:

This is correct, and so far the Dolphins defense has been relatively weak against mobile QB's. We couldn't contain Wilson, Murray, and even Cam Newton who is playing way below average for the year but had a field day against us.

If the Dolphins D is to be SB calibre, that's arguably the one weakness it absolutely needs to fix because those are the types of QB's you'll face in the playoffs — QB's that can extend drives by buying time or if necessary running for it.

I'd eliminate Newton from that group for the simple fact the first four or so weeks basically looked like preseason. I'm pretty sure if that game was run back again their gameplan wouldnt fly.

That said overall I agree. I'd argue our best defense this week would be shortening the game and limiting the number of KC possessions.

The issue is we arent particularly built to do that.

I’d give it a 20% chance but am fully expecting a beat down.

Would be gigantic for the growth of our organization to win this Sunday. Its going to be very difficult, but we can put the entire NFL on notice (and free agents) that Miami is legitimate and ready.

i think the Broncos showed yesterday that the best way to keep it competitive is to keep touching Mahomes. We gotta get after him, knock him on the ground as much as possible. And then just play efficiently on offense.

I think it is highly unlikely we win; but hey... anything is possible & the way the defense has played recently I have some faith.

If we're without Parker though, or there is some other fallout coming from yesterdays bush league game with Zach "I was just here for the tank job" Taylor's team of dirt bags then it's unlikely.

First and foremost though, aside from that Tua and the offense needs to play like Tua and the offense from the Cardinals game & the second half of yesterdays game (minus the Gaskin fumble) if we're going to have a realistic chance.

Always a chance albeit a slim to none one.I will hope for an upset but I'm not betting my Christmas budget on my beloved team against KC.

"mlb1399 wrote:

I’d give it a 20% chance but am fully expecting a beat down.

Good estimate! That's almost exactly what Vegas thinks right now. A +7.5 underdog translates to 21.9% win probability.

"cbrad wrote:

Good estimate! That's almost exactly what Vegas thinks right now. A +7.5 underdog translates to 21.9% win probability.

I just pulled that out of my a**. Would make my week it Miami win as I’m in KC fan country. I remember going to the game when Tony Gonzalez shredded our defense.

Since we are doing expectations and predictions now.

38-17 loss.

The Raiders and Broncos were able to hang with them, but those are divisional opponents so I don't think you can really go off of that. Denver did it by keeping the score as low as they possibly could. Drew Lock made some mistakes and I think that ultimately cost them the game. If we can play mistake free on offense and keep the score low, then I like our chances. Last thing this needs to turn into is a dance off with Patrick Mahomes. They will blow our doors off if we try to make this a shootout. I think this game will be very similar to the Seahawks game earlier this season. Quarterbacks that can extend plays and move around well in the pocket really seem to hurt us. I definitely do not expect us to win this game, but some encouraging signs out of Tua, some overall fight and competitiveness and i'll pretty much be happy. This was the one game on the remaining schedule that I figured we could 'afford' to lose. My expectations just aren't that high looking at the matchup. Definitely the biggest test for our defense yet.