Most of us seem to be aware that when Mike Tannenbaum was hired, he was going to bring an analytics emphasis to the Miami Dolphins’ front office. The team has since hired a staff of people to man that department in Davie.
There have been some gripes about the N. Suh signing on the grounds that he will absorb too great a percentage of the team’s cap, that perhaps only a quarterback should do so, given the quarterback’s importance in today’s game.
And that’s a decent argument because, from an analytics perspective, the quarterback indeed does have by far the greatest effect on the game, if we’re talking about only a single player on the field.
Notice the findings from the following two webpages, for example:
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2007/07/what-makes-teams-win-3.html
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2007/07/what-makes-teams-win-4.html
So, while it would seem prudent to seek, obtain, and pay a quarterback as though he’s the most important player on the field, given that defensive variables are equal to offensive variables in importance when both running and passing defense are considered, it seems just as prudent to pay a player perhaps just as much money if he can improve both a team’s run defense and its pass defense.
Now, let’s turn to Suh specifically.
Since entering the league in 2010, Suh has been selected to four Pro Bowls and has been named a first-team All-Pro on three occasions. In 2014, he was credited with 57 combined sacks, hits, and quarterback hurries, the most of any defensive tackle in the league. In 2014, he was also graded by Pro Football Focus as the second-best run-stopping defensive tackle in football.
Consider also the following by Greg Cosell:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-s...-why-ndamukong-suh-is-dominant-230715709.html
Moreover, lest we have forgotten, note the following from the Dolphins’ 2014 season:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...tting-contract-with-dolphins-5-things-to-know
So again, while it may seem that the percentage of the Dolphins’ salary cap Suh will be absorbing should be relegated to the quarterback position, if in fact Suh can bolster both the run and the pass defense in Miami – two areas that were poor in the second half of the 2014 season – his presence could be responsible for an increased number of wins in 2015 that is customarily obtained only from a quarterback.
Page 1 of 3
-
-
I like your post from a pure information added point of view (better to have this info than not), but nothing in the analytics you linked to responds to the gripe you mention above: what % of a team's cap should a player with Suh's ability eat up at maximum?
According to your stats, a defensive player should improve pass defense at least twice as much as the run defense (seen very simplistically, without looking at all the other correlations). The value of Suh will probably go down if you take that into account because Suh improves both, but doesn't measurably improve pass defense twice as much as run defense (in other words, it's not the best distribution of abilities for a defensive player.. from this simplistic point of view).
Having said all that.. the Suh-nami and Earthq-wake (best monikers I've seen floating around the net) are IMO well worth their salary cap hit, with or without the analytics.RoninFin4 and Tannephins like this. -
All in fun dude.. Tannephins is an OK dude (though he can piss off some people without thick enough a skin).Tannephins likes this.
-
-
Then again, there is likely a trade-off in that area, in that the vast majority, if not almost all, defensive players improve one or the other, the run or the pass defense. The edge rushers and the defensive backs likely improve the pass defense (when they're good, of course) more than twice as much as they improve the run defense, while the remaining players improve the run defense more than the pass defense. Only a defensive tackle who rushes the passer very well -- and those are rare birds in the league, and even more rare at Suh's level -- play a position in which they can influence both the run and the pass defense to the degree that it parallels a quarterback's influence on the offensive side of the ball.
In essence what you have here is that the passing game is so much more important than the running game on the offensive side of the ball, and so much more important than either the pass or the run defense by themselves, that it makes all positions on the field pale in comparison to the importance of the quarterback. Only a defensive player who can improve both the run and the pass defense a great deal can possibly compare. A wide receiver who can take over a game on a regular basis may compare, as well (a Megatron, for example), but even a player like that may not be as impactful as someone like Suh. -
from a non stat standpoint, suh isnt worth the money but then no player is. the money would be better spent on getting multiple players at more reasonable salaries. having said that, Suh does have the type of talent that he can make the pain of overpaying more palatable. You always overpay for the best. Is a Lamborghini really worth what it costs? and suh is arguably the best at his position. If Suh plays to his capabilities for the next three years we will have overpaid but it may have been worth it still. If he gets injured or gets a season ending ban for misconduct then we are screwed royally
-
dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member
Bill Polian gave Suh a rating of A + , the only FA he has ever given that grade to . The reason? BEST player at his position in the NFL.
That's pretty bottom line. Should easily improve those around him.Tannephins and RoninFin4 like this. -
There are certainly counterpoints here, folks: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ong-suh-deal-will-be-a-disaster-for-dolphins/
-
Why don't you just weight whatever stat you are using to measure Suh's value added in pass defense by twice his value added in run defense to get an overall estimate of what the man brings? If you do that for every defensive player, then you have an estimate of how valuable Suh is GIVEN the stats you posted.
-
You know.. we've had multiple players at "more reasonable salaries" for quite awhile (ignore whether ahem.. Ireland overpaid.. they're still way less than Suh). I think it's time to try something new.Springveldt and Ducken like this.
-
This whole "passing is twice as important as running thing" isn't taking into account that it is better for an offense to be balanced than one-dimensional, and vice-versa for the defense. When you pass as well as you run, it poses a threat for the defense to have to account for all areas of the field and provides an element of surprise.
So you can have a defender who is great against the pass and mediocre against the run, and these overall stats are going to tell you he is better than someone who is equally solid at both things, but that's going to be wrong most times. You can be a great pass defense, but if you cannot stop the run as well, you are going to lose games in this league, look none other than the Dolphins in the second half of the season.cbrad likes this. -
dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member
To be clear , Polian rated Suh the only A+ free agent ever . This was prior to him "signing" . The salient point to me is him being ranked best player at his position in the entire league.
Lots of money to be sure , but LOTS to like as well . Now it's up the management and coaching , I really believe in 17 , adding Suh to Wake and Vernon and Mitchell really makes that a strength , we still need pieces , let's make some astute signings and draft picks . The division we're in isn't getting easier, we need to step up to even think we have a chance . Obviously this was a huge step , but just one step. -
I read that earlier..not sure what to say...its about residual impact on the team, its about intimidation effect..its about accountability..its about game, and his game is the best..there are things that he will do for us that will not show up on the stat sheet or dollar value...he's a tremendous force that will always account for multiple offenders thinking about him.
-
Interesting.. he is basically saying that "expected points added per game" = EPA/G correlates with salary, and that Suh's salary is more than where that regression line (best-fitting line to the data) is; thus, he's overpaid.
I think statistically speaking, you'd want to know how added EPA/G (by adding a new player to a team) increases the EPA/G for the other players. These can't just add because it's a team game. The key argument in our case being that Wake and Suh will compliment each other, so the resulting EPA/G for Suh might end up being a lot higher than it was with Detroit. That would change the analysis there..2socks and Tannephins like this. -
Absolutely true.
It also doesn't tell you what the best distribution of abilities are for any given position (given the type of defense etc..), since this is a team game. So a priori there's no reason to think any player should have the distribution of run vs pass defense abilities based on an overall team stat.Brasfin likes this. -
A little too labor intensive for me. Right here I'm just focused on how a defensive tackle who defends the run and rushes the passer very well is your "quarterback" of the defense, in terms of the impact of the position and the salary he warrants, theoretically speaking. And notice those guys are now your highest-paid players in the league behind the best QBs -- JJ Watt, Gerald McCoy, and now Suh. Those guys have now eclipsed the edge rushers and the corners in terms of salary.
-
...and why I went with my analysis over theirs. You definitely get a synergistic effect of Suh in my opinion, and it encompasses both the run and the pass defense.
-
-
There's an interesting counterpoint to this, however. Note the following:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...or-mistake-by-breaking-bank-for-ndamukong-suh
One solution would be in trading back in the draft, accumulating more picks, and having a greater percentage of the roster comprised of young players who can (hopefully) play well but are earning peanuts. Notice the Patriots have done this routinely during Belichick's reign, while frequently jettisoning very good but expensive veteran players (Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law, Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel, Wes Welker, Logan Mankins, etc.).
If the Dolphins are going to sink so much into one player, they're going to have to find a way to keep a large percentage of the rest of the roster from being inadequate. Trading back in the draft is one solution. -
The problem is with that Bleacher Report piece is that the major holes the Dolphins have left OG & #2 CB are not big money positions. The other problem with that article is that it states the LB corps are mess which isn't even close to the truth, and quite frankly, Suh improves them as well.
Random DT Player X makes the DT position not the most important, however, when you have a generational talent at DT, the position instantly becomes THE most important position on defense.
Plugging in a player of Suh's caliber, changes everything on defense and one the most immediate differences i that it makes the LBs better. -
The larger thing I was getting at there is that there stands a decent chance of having a bimodal salary distribution on the team, where a small group of players like Suh, Tannehill, Albert, and Wallace (or his replacement) soak up a great deal of the salary cap, leaving only peanuts for the rest of the roster.
There are essentially only two possible options with regard to the rest of the roster in that scenario: 1) low-paid veterans, who by definition are poorer players who have reached their (relatively low) ceilings in the league and can't command any bigger salary than they do, or 2) low-paid young players on their first (cheap) contracts in the league, who have at least a chance of developing into good players and playing for the team during at least part of that first, cheap contract. Obviously those two options can be combined to some degree, as well.
Trading back in the draft is really the only way of having more shots than normal at landing the latter of those two types of players, and if you're going to pay a small group of players an uncommonly large percentage of your cap, you may in fact force yourself to trade back in the draft to compensate, from a salary structure point of view. -
Great players cost money. The problem doesn't exist with Suh, the problem exists when you pay the WRONG player big money. You have to pay to have talent, unless your plan is to dump players regardless of how good they are after their rookie deals are over.
Now, of the four players you mentioned the only one that is questionable by size of contract and importance of position is Wallace. QB, LT, DT (of Suh's caliber) are far and away the most important positions on the field, so you might as well spend big on those.
The majority of each given team is filled with the average players after all, the difference is where they have their best players and how many they have. That's another reason why rookies are so important and why trading back is not automatically the best idea. We are not the Raiders, we don't need quantity, we need quality.
There's only so many great players in a given draft, the further from #1 you get the less likely you'll grab a great player. Does it happen? Yes. But the odds are against it. We are in a position where the draft needs to be a sniper strike not a shotgun blast. -
That actually isn't true. Note the following:
http://www.thephins.com/forums/show...-Teams-Sign-Superstars-for-Very-High-Salaries
The greater the number of superstar salaries, the lower the likelihood of winning. I suspect that has something to do with the bimodal salary (and talent) distribution I was talking about.2socks and Clark Kent like this. -
You're forgetting Free Safety, for which we have none starting opposite Jones. While we have three major holes, we also have a ton of leaks that could turn major. Namely TE and WR. In addition, Miami needs upgrades at MLB, maybe OLB (Jordan?), WR (even without Wallace), and DE.
As for OP's question, is Suh worth the money? No. Of course not. He's an incredible player and I'm happy we have someone of his talent and ability. But outside the position of QB, there is no player worth $20 million a season. Any player getting paid beyond his original deal is likely overpaid. Do you think Belichick would ever dish out this kind of cash for one player? Given the years and guarantees Suh has on his new deal, it's going to make the next half decade a salary cap juggling act. All we can hope for is Suh to continue playing at a high level and making the most impact possible. I think we'll get that much.2socks likes this. -
I can't view that article, but I wonder how much is being considered. Again, raw numbers are not the issue, its who those numbers are spent on. Tom Brady was the highest QB at one time. As was Manning. Those worked out.
Also, the cap is fluid year to year and so are what constitutes big contracts. -
The idea that you shouldn't pay superstars big money is a little short-sighted. You can only argue that if you can legitimately say that your front office is able to always replace that high salary's production with a cheaper alternative, such as a draft pick. If you're picking up cheap free agents, well, there's a reason they're cheap. If they were really good, they'd be costing a bunch of money. We've played the game over the past 12 years or so, of trying to get by with average talent. We've even gone the route of upgrading our below average talent with talent that was above average (but we paid through the nose, I'm thinking guys like Ellerbe, Wheeler, Hartline, etc). Neither of those has worked. I get that Suh is a ton of money, but for a game-changing talent like him, a guy who single-handedly changes how the defense as a whole plays, I think it's worth it.
-
I think there's a good rationale for paying big for players like these when they can truly have wide-ranging effects on one or the other side of the ball. The quarterback of course has that sort of effect on offense, and Suh -- again with his likely improvement of both the run and the pass defense -- can have that sort of effect on defense.
I think you want to make sure that when you're paying players like this you're getting someone who can uplift the play (or mitigate the weaknesses) of the players around him and have that sort of synergistic effect. That way there isn't as much of a need to have as much talent elsewhere.
Several years ago Ireland made the splash on day one of free agency with Mike Wallace and Dannell Ellerbe. People were making a somewhat similar fuss at the time about Ellerbe, as though he was going to provide a marked improvement of the defense, whereas with the talent he had displayed previously, and at the position he played (MLB), that really shouldn't have been warranted.
Contrast that with Suh, with his track record, and with the impact he can have on the game and the players around him from his position.djphinfan likes this. -
I can't believe this is even a question. As far as player acquisition moves in the history of the Miami Dolphins it's #3 behind drafting Dan Marino and trading for Paul Warfield.
-
Its like playing the lottery only with a slightly larger chance of winning. What happens when those players who are got on the cheap deservedly wants more money? Does anyone think we just gave Tannehill a raise from what he would have gotten. Does anyone think his agent, knowing QB's importance, will ask for more dollars??
-
Jason Taylor came to mind when the Suh deal seemed confirmed. Slightly different position of course. But we're looking for that same impact, someone who can consistently pressure the QB. Though with Suh, we're looking for that and someone who can lead a solid run defense. So while Jason was probably the better pass rusher, Suh could possibly make up for that with his run defense. Jason's HOF-level production is what we're paying for.
In a vacuum, a DT (even a HOFer) isn't as valuable or worth the money a really good QB is. But we've pretty much decided that we have a really good QB who will likely agree to sign a long term deal to stay with the team. For all intents and purposes, we've got the QB thing taken care of. So we should look at the Suh deal a little differently than comparing him to a top paid QB. I think the better comparison are Suh's defensive peers, such as JJ Watt. Watt's probably better. But Houston extended him from his rookie deal, thus getting a slight discount. If Watt hits the market he probably gets what Suh did, maybe more.
So given our QB situation and market factors, I think Suh has a chance to be worth the money. Sure, it's going to be more difficult to bring in a wider range of good players because there are less resources to allocate. But perhaps Suh can make up for the marginally worse players we might be getting because we can't pay them as much.Tannephins likes this. -
What makes it a worthwhile question is the fact that there is a salary cap and therefore a limited amount of resources allotted to every team to manage and improve its talent.
Certainly for the sake of argument, if the Dolphins would've given Suh let's say $50 million a year, it would've been a bad deal, correct, because of what it would've done to the rest of the roster? So at what particular salary is it not a bad deal? And why does Suh deserve that salary and not some other player?
These are all legitimate questions, and ones the people running NFL teams should be asking themselves if they want to win. It doesn't mean the deal was bad, but all of these things should be evaluated. Presumably if the Dolphins are making use of the salaries they're paying their analytics folks, they've been fast at work on these issues and have provided some concrete data for use in the development of Suh's contract.
Page 1 of 3