I know, I know....Miami's not going to the playoffs. Even if they win out and finish the year 9-7, there's only a 5.6% chance that they'd take a wild card spot. But since they're not officially eliminated yet, I figured that I'd share the miracles that would need to happen for us to get in.
First off, we are sitting in the 10th position in the conference and there's not a single tie-breaker that goes our way. So that means even if we do win all 4 games, we need all but one of these teams to finish 8-8 or worse-
Serious Contenders-
- Chiefs (currently 7-5, 3 tough games left)
- Jets (currently 7-5, 2 tough games left- Pats/Bills)
- Steelers (currently 7-5, 3 tough games left)
Outside Possibilities-
- Texans (currently 6-6, 2 tough games left)
- Bills (currently 6-6, 1 tough game left- Jets)
- Raiders (currently 5-7, 2 tough games left)
My equation for "tough games" is a division rival that's also in the playoff race OR any team 3+ games over .500. (NE, GB, Den, Cinci, etc.)
Here's the problem though; most of these teams have heads-up games against each other, so it's not like they can lose all of their tough games remaining. And from the way it looks today, the Steelers and the Chiefs SHOULD take the final two slots. So we're definitely rooting against those two from here on out....but Pitt has looked legendary in recent weeks. So they're about as close as a lock as you get four weeks out...which leaves one spot up for grabs.
Now let's look at the division...the Pats have all but clinched (they need 1 more win and 1 Jets loss), so they're not in this conversation. The Bills and the Jets should fall between 8-9 wins....if either gets to 9, our season is over. So naturally, we're rooting for both of these teams to lose the rest of the way as well.
That leaves the Raiders, which almost certainly won't win 9 games, and the Texans, who should finish 7-9 or 8-8. So for now, we're not sweating these teams and we're rooting for them to win against the Steelers, Jets, Bills and Chiefs.
And granted, we need to win all 4 of our football games, which feels next to impossible at this point. But the Pats often rest Brady in week 17 and many of their starters, and the Giants, Chargers and Colts are all struggling like us. So 9-7 isn't completely crazy if Tannehill steps up just a little bit in these final weeks.
Now, it would be nicer to say, "Win and We're In!" but that just wasn't in the cards this season. But hey, if the Chiefs, Jets and Texans choke down the stretch (I'm assuming Pittsburgh won't), then the door is open for us to take that remaining slot.
Is it probable? Nope. But we're Dolphins fans...to hell with the probable. As long as we're still in contention, then we may as well cross our fingers and hope for the best.
My Best Guess
I'm not saying that we won't go 9-7...it's actually a real possibility. But I have a feeling that the Bills are going to sweep Wash, Dallas, and Philly to reach win #9 and I'm really liking the Steelers offense at this point as well. The Jets should also have a good shot at the 9 win mark so I'm saying the season is over....but at least we're still mathematically in this.
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Really there's only a 5.6% chance we get a spot if we go 9-7? That's more grim than I thought.
I thought it would be higher than that if they miraculously managed to win out. But our season may end on Monday Night.dolphin25 likes this. -
There was also like a 0.4% chance we make it in with 8 wins and a tie, but I wasn't even considering an attempt at writing those scenarios out.Kud_II likes this. -
For me the record no longer matters (except for draft position) because playoffs are nearly impossible anyway. I'm primarily interested in player evaluation (Tannehill, and some rookies) the rest of the season. I think the best possible scenario for the future of this team is if Tannehill and the rooks play really well but we lose enough games to get a top 5 draft pick (our strength of schedule is really helpful in tiebreakers for the draft). But the key thing is that they play well.. if they do, I'm fine if we win out and don't make the playoffs.
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The only real way we get in is if we finish ahead of both the Jets and Bills, and that would mean they would have to go 8-8 and we'd have to win out. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
Just last week we had a 20 percent chance if we win out...but yeh looks like around 7 percent or something..here's a cool site to check it out
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...n&sd-mia-15=loss&mia-ind-16=win&mia-ne-17=win
Odds change dramatically though based on who wins or loses ...our wins are all that matters...everything else will sort itself outKeyFin likes this. -
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Even if we win out the chances of all those teams in front of us collapsing are as slim as anything. I just want to see some good progress from the young guys over the last four games. Hopefully win all four too.
number21 likes this. -
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MikeHoncho likes this.
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Monday night is our season. If we lose I hope we lose out. Id also love for RT to start a great streak to end the season so maybe a good OC or two might be suckered into coming to Miami. Other than that, Ill just be watching sundays to see Parkers development.
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That being said, there are a lot of games today where the AFC teams ahead of Miami in the WC hunt are underdogs. It could very well happen then we still go into the MNF game with a sense of hope for the playoffs. Still, its highly unlikely that we make it in. As others have said, I'm just looking for the team to play well now. -
dolphin25 likes this. -
So know that I'm talking about a very brief time in his career...once or twice in 2012 and 2013, then that small stretch in 2014. And I think that's why so many here absolutely love him...they just can't get past those 5 or 6 contests to see his entire body of work. -
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To clarify, I'm not saying that Tanne didn't do a good job in the games you're referring to, I just think the Manning comparison is off, pre-snap Manning is among the best ever, it's like he's creating plays out there at times, he starts moving everyone around so much that by the time he's through you've got a LT lined up as a WR and the water boy in the backfield, lol. -
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Best to hope for great individual performances but that we lose the games.. top 5 vs. 10-15 in the draft makes a difference, especially if we want a QB. -
- 6th Seed - Miami
Wins tie break over Pittsburgh based on best win percentage in common games.
cbrad likes this. - 6th Seed - Miami
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http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
Dolphins at best would be 1-5 in division if we win out, and Pitt and KC already have more division wins, so someone's right/wrong.. not sure who.
EDIT: I see.. wild card is different. OK my mistake. -
We still talking playoffs ?
Let's talk draft. That's next important thing for Miami. We are done after week 17. Period.
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http://youtu.be/p3-eavMSBnk
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[video=youtube_share;U7fjDS0jKiE]http://youtu.be/U7fjDS0jKiE[/video]
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The Bills lost again so I think they're on their way to being out of the picture...we just need 2 of the 3 to stall from here on out. Pitt is playing their best football in awhile and someone mentioned we do have a single tie-break over them, so we're really just rooting for KC and the Jets to finish 0-3. That probably won't happen, but hey...it's something to root for anyway.
By the way folks, I'll update the original post tonight after the Fins play. -
While Pittsburgh has been playing well as of late, they play the Broncos this week and two back-to-back away division games, I don't think it's that far fetched to say they can lose 2 out of 3.
PS: Don't bother updating this if we lose, I think we'll be mathematically eliminated with a loss today. -
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