I think Ireland has done a pretty good job so far in filling needs so that for the majority of picks in the draft, he can draft the BPA.
I'm looking to list the most likely candidates for each of our 5 picks in the first round and give a little insight to why I think it could happen.
If you disagree or have another idea then they can be added too.
Round 1 - #12 Overall
I think this is a really difficult pick for Ireland to make. Due to the lack of top talent in the draft and especially at the Dolphin's needs, it makes it even harder. Ireland can stick to his guns and pick someone who is bound to fall out of the top 10, or he can make a slight reach and address a real need.
Because of this, I also think there's a possibility that we trade up, to get a top player at a position, or trade down and try and get better value.
OG Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina
This could be considered a reach because guards aren't usually taken this high, but Jonathan Cooper is incredibly agile for his size and would open up the run game for the Dolphins. Ireland would love to play it safe with this pick may struggle to find value in it.
OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Jones is considered as one of the top 5 players in the whole draft but is falling due to his spinal issue and recently had a poor showing at the Georgia pro day. The Dolphins have revamped their linebacker core recently to get more aggressive and be better at blitzing. Jones would be a 3 down player, going to end on 3rd downs, a la Von Miller. The concern with this pick is that it isn't an immediate need, considering CB, DE and TE hasn't been addressed yet.
CB Desmond Trufant, Washington
Trufant is a perfect scheme fit, fast and competitive. Until a great senior bowl and combine, he was seen as a 2nd round pick but has recently been crawling up the 1st round mocks. 12 could be a little too high for Trufant but the Dolphins have a huge need there and I don't think Xavier Rhodes is someone that they target.
DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
Werner is a big strong pass rusher who is great against the run. He is exactly what Coyle wants from his RDE position. I love this pick at 12 but Werner seems to be losing steam after a bad combine.
WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
Everyone who is following the draft has to be in love with Tavon Austin. The reason I didn't put him as an option at 12 was because of the FA acquisitions, but as Ireland said last year when drafting Lamar Miller, he likes to continue building on the strength of a position, so it's a possibility that they draft Austin here. I'm still not sold on the Dolphins drafting Austin at 12, I think people's man crushes are not allowing them to dismiss the possibility, but I guess we'll know come April.
CB Xavier Rhodes - Florida State
I keep dismissing Xavier Rhodes as an option, because I think that if we wanted a tall, good in press guy then we would have kept Sean Smith. But Rhodes may well be very good in zone too. There's no doubt that he's an unbelievable athlete, and probably the 2nd best corner in the draft. Ireland likes his corners to have a long frame and Rhodes certainly is that.
Trade Up
I only see 2 players that may cause the Dolphins to trade up:
- CB Dee Milliner - The undeniable #1 cornerback in the draft. Not a blue chip player but if he gets past Detroit then we may pull the trigger. It all depends on whether Ireland has enough conviction that he's the guy.
- OT Lane Johnson - If Winston or Moore don't sign during FA then RT will be a need. The big, athletic tackle won't be there at 12 and the Dolphins would have to go up to get him.
Trade Down
Ireland loves trading down. Especially in a pretty deep draft with minimal top players, this would be his dream situation. I just can't see many teams wanting to come to the top of the first round to get their guy.
- TE Tyler Eifert - I think this would be the favourite if we were to trade down. Eifert is the #1 TE in the draft and not expected to get into the 2nd round. A TE who can block is a big need now Fasano is gone and a position that is likely to be addressed during the draft.
- DE Tank Carradine - Probably my favourite DE in the draft. Incredibly explosive, strong and fast, everything you want from a 4-3 defensive end. But I don't think it's justifyable to draft him at 12 after having 1 good season and ending it being injured. I don't think he makes it to the 2nd and is more likely to go in the late-20's-early-30's.
Round 2 - #42 Overall
S Jonathan Cyprien, Florida International
I'm not sure that Cyprien makes it this far considering all the hype that he has been getting recently. He's terrific against both the run and the pass and I believe that he can play both free and strong safety. The local product is a Philbin type guy, extremely hard worker, hard-hitter and moves like a 'football player'.
OT Menelik Watson, Florida State
Watson is a beast of a run blocker and an unbelievable athlete. He is very raw but so athletic that he could be a fantastic tackle in the NFL. This all depends on what happens towards the end of FA with Winston and Moore but could be an option. I'm not sure if Watson is still available here but if he is then I would take him in a heartbeat.
DE Alex Okafor, Texas
I really like Okafor as a pass-rusher. I think he is one of the best 4-3 DE prospects in the draft and have him graded as a 1st-2nd rounder. Most people hav ehim mocked in the mid-2nd round so he might be there when the Dolphins pick.
Round 2 - #54 Overall
TE Travis Kelce, Cincinnati
Probably my favourite player in the draft, but he's only had 1 really productive season since moving from QB to full-time TE in 2009. This could be a little early for him but I think he becomes the all-around TE for the next decade for the Dolphins. He's nasty, aggressive and angry in his blocking and the guy can move too. Has really soft hands for a bigger guy and will only get better in the NFL. Definition of a 'football player'.
CB Robert Alford, Southeastern Louisianna
Again someone that I think might be available in the 3rd round but my man crush doesn't want to let him go before the Dolphins pick. Alford is a small school guy that lit up the combine with a huge KO return and an interception. He's only 5'10 but ran a 4.39, really good in zone, very physical, and very good ball skills.
OT Terron Armstead - Arkansas Pine Bluff
Terron Armstead had an unbelievable combine, causing scouts from teams to consider him as a tight end. The 6'5, 306lb'er ran a 4.71, which is ridiculous for a tackle, and that straight speed shows on tape. He's a monster in the run game, getting downfield quickly and sealing the hole. He's very raw however, his feet aren't great in pass pro. and he would need alot of work to be a day 1 starter.
Round 3 - #77 Overall
CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, UCONN
Again, a corner that would fit the zone scheme perfectly. Wreh-Wilson seems to do everything well, but nothing spectacularly. He has great ball skills and is decent against the run.
TE Gavin Escobar, San Diego State
Escobar is a pass-catching tight end with limited blocking skill. He was lined up alot in the slot but did more blocking than Egnew did in college, as well as being more productive. The 6'6 target would give Tannehill something to aim for in the red-zone and would be a lethal seam threat.
OG Brian Schwenke, California
Schwenke is a center but could easily play guard in the NFL. He anchors really well, has very good feet and would be perfect for the zone blocking scheme. A real blue-collar guy who had an awesome Senior Bowl.
Round 3 - #82 Overall
CB DJ Hayden, Houston
After Milliner and Trufant, Hayden is my favourite corner. Since seeing CK draft him in MockTwo I've fallen in love with this guy. I haven't a clue what's going to happen on draft day and where he goes. He's a 2nd round talent but only the teams really know where he's at medically.
CB Josh Johnson, Purdue
Johnson probably wouldn't fall this far if he was a few inches taller, but at 5'9, he's one of the shorter corners in the draft. A very solid corner for Purdue, Johnson is a hard-hitting tackler and decent ball skills. He's very athletic but had a nightmare when trying to cover Tyler Eifert, which is understandable as he towered above him at 6'6. I'm not sure if Ireland targets Johnson due to his height, there isn't a corner on the Dolphin's roster under 5'10.
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Thanks for the list, Peakz.
Here's three Round 1 additions, or primary targets actually:
Tavon Austin
Cornellius Carradine
Sheldon Richardson
If I had to prioritize them now it'd be Austin as the primary choice and Carradine as the fall back. -
Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member
Pretty good list.
I would add Tavon Austin to #1. And, I'd add Keenan Allen to a trade down possibility (he could go anywhere from around 12 to even early round 2!).
But, in terms of both talent and availability - I would also flip rounds with Kelce and Escobar. I would guess that Escobar is likely to be gone in round 2 and Kelce should be there in round 3. -
Tough list to make, but I like the idea. Barry Jackson's latest (http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/) says we're showing 'considerable interest' in Gio Bernard as well, fwiw - and Gio's probably my favortie guy in the draft, so I was real glad to read that.
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For me,
12. Bjoern Werner, Tavon Austin, Jarvis Jones, Cordarrelle Paterson, Tank Carradine, Tyler Eifert -
I honestly can't see why we'd even look at receivers like Patterson or Keenan Allen as a high draft pick after the FA signings. Austin is different because he's a gadget player and could give some depth at RB and be used differently to a standard receiver. Maybe a late round flier to add some bodies and competition but not one of our first 100.
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Larry Little and Bpk like this.
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Bpk likes this.
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Other possibilities:
- Ezekiel Ansah. I can see Jeff saying "Let's roll the dice on more upside" in this draft. Zeke probably goes sooner, but if he is there at 12, you don't pass.
- Chance Warmack. Possible, not likely. That said, solidifying RG in this scheme would give us a very good interior, allowing a consistent run game, second level blocks, screens, and time to deliver short-passes the WCVO calls for on three step drops. On longer drops, a great interior line always lets your QB step up to avoid edge pressure. We don;t want to leak in the middle of the line.
What a horrendous decision this would be. First of all, I think what we've seen from Miami is that they don't believe high resources should be allocated to our CB position. It's more of a B-resource level. As such, I'd be very surprised if we traded UP for a CB. Secondly, Milliner may have more measurables, but by all accounts he is more a man cover CB than a zone CB. I don't know where all these reports came from that we want zone CBs more than man CBs, but that's what I keep hearing. If it's true, maybe Milliner is less compelling. I tend to think teams who priroritize man-cover corners put them high on the resource-spending list to get those rare Revis players... but zone cover can hide a lot of deficiencies in terms of speed, etc of a corner... so you can get away with signing B-level guys more so in zone than in man. Seeing our lack of big movement in free agency on CBs, I feel like we are allocating B-level resources to it.. agin, that seems to say zone.. which is not Milliner, nor does it need to be a #12 overall player. It also sounds like Milliner is closer to his ceiling already, playing with good technique and not needing as much coaching up, thus less upside. With CBs like Banks and CK's boy Hayden further down in the draft, I cannot imagine us trading UP to get a CB.
- I wouldn;t complain if we selected Tank Carradine here. It sounds insane, given his injury, but no one I watched on film, no one, presented as complete a pro-level DE package as this guy. He plays day one and you never look back. The only catch? Doctors have to get it right on the knee.
- We could also trade down to 18 and select Chance Warmack, or Sheldon Richardson, if he is there.
- If we trade even lower, into the 20's, I could see us considering Tavon Austin (if he remains) or even Johnthan Banks.
I'm always a little leery when I like a guy as a great value in round 3 or 4, and then everyone notices him, he climbs and suddenly you're considering using a 42nd overall on what used to be a 'value' pick. He's good. Is he THIS good? Not sure I am on board with Cyprien this high.
You've overlooked a possibility here.
- Stedman Bailey: Some think this is overdrafting Stedman because he is not 6'3", he does not run a 4.4. No, he just scores touchdowns. inside. Outside. Contested. Wide open. Beating guys in the open field. Beating guys deep over the top. This guy is Reggie Wayne in a smaller body. He's short Jerry Rice. I have not seen a WR in this draft with a higher FLOOR than this guy. I would be shocked if he is not, at least, a productive, average Pro receiver. At best, I think he is a Pro Bowl guy. He may last until 3a (and if he does, I will be an instant fan of whatever team is smart enough to selct him). Ireland and the Dolphins have extensively scouted WVU, and everyone assumes it's for Tavon Austin. I think they are ACTUALLY targeting Stedman Bailey. Hey, I can hope.
Round 2 - #54 Overall
A guy who is ABSOLUTLEY worth this pick is Corey Lemonier, if he remains. A deadly, explosive pas rusher who can bend the arc, he's the poor mans Jarvis Jones. Pick him up, rotate him in instead of Olivier Vernon and enjoy the sacks.
Also Datone Jones - a real good loookng pass rusher, good value here.
- Cornelius Washington would be interesting here too.
Fourth and Fifth Round Guys:
- Ryan Swope
- Jordan Reed
- Shamarko Thomas -
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Actually, I was watching for Tank and Werner kept 'robbing' him of sacks. Tank would beat the RT, have a beeline on the QB, and Werner would reach him 0.5 seconds sooner. -
Add Terron Armstead to round 2, he is a possibility there
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Good list. Just to add one other name... I'd add Xavier Rhodes as a possibility at #12.
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Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member
Here's just a guess of some targets by pick (highlighted are the players I would like) for 7 rounds (excluding the last pick) - just got tired:
- • 1 – 12
- o Austin, WR
- o Lane Johnson, OT
- o Cooper, OG
- o Rhodes, CB
- o Werner, DE
- o Keenan Allen, WR
- o Star Lotulelei, DT
- o Carradine, DE
- o
- o
- • 2 – 42
- o Carradine, DE (a bit of wishful thinking – but several have him in this round)
- o Trufant, CB (see above)
- o Eifert, TE (see above)
- o Allen, WR (see above)
- o DeAndre Hopkins, WR (if no Austin in round 1 – I like this)
- o Banks, CB
- o Hayden, CB
- o D. Moore, DE
- o Okafor, DE
- o Armstead, OT
- o Warford, OG
- o
- o
- • 2 – 54
- o Banks, CB
[*]o Armstead, OT
- o Hayden, CB
- o Escobar, TE
- o Okafor, DE
- o Watson, OT
- o Lacy, RB
- o Fluker, OT
- o Q Patton, WR
- o
- o
- • 3 – 77
- o Long, OG / RT
- o Hayden, CB
- o Kelce, TE
- o Escobar, TE
- o C. Washington, DE
- o Jenkins, DE
- o Bailey, WR
- o Wreh-Wilson, CB
- o Hunt, DE
- o Ball, RB
- o
- o
- • 3 – 82
- o Kelce, TE
- o Long, OG
- o Brandon Williams, DT
- o C. Washington, DE
- o Hunt, DE
- o Ball, DE
- o Bailey, WR
- o Reid, S
- o Shamarko Thomas, S
- o
- o
- • 4 – 111
- o Shamarko Thomas, SS/FS
- o Jonathan Franklin, RB
- o Christine Michael, RB
- o Dennis Johnson, RB
- o Hugh Thornton, OG
- o Brandon Williams, DT
- o
- o
- • 5 – 146
- o Hugh Thornton, OG
- o Sanders Commings, CB
- o Knile Davis, RB
- o Dennis Johnson, RB
- o Michael Williams, TE
- o Jon Bostic, LB
- o
- o
- • 5 – 166 ©
- o Knile Davis, RB
- o Michael Williams, TE
- o Jon Bostic, LB
- o
- o
- • 7 – 217
- o Jon Bostic, LB (probably will go higher - rd. 4-5 - but he's rated at NFL.Com in the 200's)
- o Melvin White, CB
- o
- o
- o 7 – 224
- o Melvin White, CB (could be a steal in later rounds - Richard Sherman type size. Big hitter).
- o
- o
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Anyone think Jonathan Banks could be there at 2A? The guy has some size (6'2) and obvious ability (Jim Thorpe award winner, 16 career INTs) and is a primarily zone corner. He was many people's number 2 corner before the combine but his performance there (4.61 40) will drop him. I think with the rumors of us moving to more of a quarters scheme and what that does in terms of masking speed problems with corners and his other skills he could be a good pick if he's there.
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Also Kelce in the 3rd would be a great pick up to replace Fasano -
Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member
I don't think the CB's will go all that high (other than Milliner) and would be surprised if Banks went high in round 2. I think he'll be there in the middle of the round. May not make it to 2.54 but should land at 2.42 or after, imo. The speed factor is the issue that knocks him down.
Then again, as they say, it only requires one team to like you. -
I see Milliner, Rhodes and Trufant going in the first as CBs, think Banks will be gone by 54 though too many teams needing secondary help.
Another guy i like a 42 is Alex Okafor providing he gets there, he's got the frame to put on a bit more weight and play RDE in our system and still provide and upgrade in the pass rush.