I know we're a long way off from the draft ...but ... just to get a new discussion going ... :up:
1. After 7 games & in order of priority, what do you see as the Phins top 5 draft needs as of today:
A: My thoughts are:
1. WR
2. ILB
3. S
4. OLB
5. TE
2. If the draft were held today & based on your positions of need, who would you be inclined to draft with our first 2 picks? Target 3 to 4 players (Let's just assume we end up in the 10-15 range over all pick)
A: My choice's
Round 1 - WR Dez Brant, LB Brandon Spikes, WR Brandon Lafell, TE Jermaine Gresham
Round 2 - WR Eric Decker, LB Eric Norwood, FS Nate Allen, LB Sergio Kindle
Let the fun begin! :shifty:
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Let's say we're picking 16th, thus removing any conjecture here or there as we're bang in the middle, I'd certainly be inclined to look at a WR if Bryant fell, although I don't see him going that far. Jermaine Gresham would be an option, but his inability to block and the injury would be a concern, especially to a coach like Sparano who likes the all round TE. But he taught Witten how to block, so no reason he couldn't do the same with Gresh. Depending on Ferguson, I'd think a NT might be an option. I think Paul Soliai is beginning to show why a few of us round here had him pegged much higher than the 4th round. But another big man in the rotation.......
I think Morgan Burnett is a very, very good playmaking safety and has CB versatility. I think Brandon Spikes and Rolando McClain have to be right there in the mix. McClain's lack of footspeed might hurt him, but the kid just makes plays and you can cover him up in the 3-4 a little more in terms of speed limitations. I also think the wealth of OLB's might be hard to overcome. That position needs some serious analysis. Jasn Taylor may have lost half a step, but he has what, 6 sacks this season and at least 2 forced fumbles and a fumble recovery for 6. I don't see a significant drop off between now and 2010. Porter I'm not so sure about. That hammy is killing him and we have to look at Cameron Wake and wonder whether he just abused appalling tackle play against the Bills or whether he really can play. I don't ever see Moses or Charlie Anderson as anything more than depth. So guys like Jerry Hughes, Pierre-Paul, Morgan at Georgia Tech, Hardy, Wooton, the kid at Michigan, Greg Romeus, the kid at USC, etc.
A wildcard might be CJ Spiller who has the skills to pay the bills.
In the second round.....there is a wealth of talent at OLB that is going to fall. That might be a prime area. Plus you have receivers like Mike Williams of Syracuse that will tumble, although whether he's a risk for Jeff Ireland remains to be seen.skippysphins, The Rev, ToddsPhins and 5 others like this. -
Also, I see a lot of talk about Spiller being just a scat back that can't carry the full load at the pro level ... is that pretty much correct or is their more to him then they are seeing? How does he compare to guys like DSproles, LWashington & RBush? -
Gunner likes this.
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Needs are different from value. The Dolphins could use immediate contributors at ILB, TE, WR, and perhaps RB depending on what we do with Ronnie Brown.
If you need an immediate contribution at a spot, and you decide to get it through the draft, that's when I think you have to double-bag it like we did with Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, Phil Merling and Kendall Langford, Shawn Murphy and Donald Thomas, etc.
I'm not giving up on JT or JP yet. I think JT has been very good and JP is just going through hamstring issues, not necessarily just a downard spiral into retirement type thing. I think somewhere they HAVE to make the decision to use Wake more, because IMO he has a very bright future. Very bright. And so, with Quentin Moses providing additional depth, I really don't see the OLB position as a big need. I think you could target it but perhaps a little later in the draft where you try and polish up a guy like C.J. Wilson (big favorite of mine).
Yet, as I said, needs are different from value and you have to ask yourself where the value is at #16 (or hopefully more like #25-30). Are we going to get our impact ILB, TE, WR or RB at that spot? And from among those four positions, which ones will we satisfy to some degree in free agency? If we retain Ronnie Brown, and let's say we acquire a WR, can we get an impact ILB or TE at those mid-to-late stages of the draft?
Possibly not. I'd take Gresham in a heartbeat but aside from him, I'm not in love with any of the others and if we don't get Jermaine then I would start rolling the dice on later guys like Jimmy Graham. At ILB I would love to grab Brandon Spikes but I'm sure so too would a number of teams that will pick above us. I'm not sure how much I'm buying on Rolondo McClain. It's not that I wouldn't be happy to see him come here I just think he could be overrated. Then again I thought Vontae was overrated, so what do I know.
Despite it not being a need, I see a lot of value in the OLBs in that area of the draft, right around the first round. There could be an opportunity at WR as well.
I'm no longer a believer in Terrence Cody, I think he's too fat and he exemplifies the old scouts' saying that "fat guys like being fat". I don't think he could even make the headway that Paul Soliai has made under this regime's guidance and motivation. But, when it comes to the defensive line, what if you're staring at an Arthur Jones or Gerald McCoy right in front of you? What if Allen Bailey comes out and you're staring at him available? I must reiterate that you can't possibly be too good at that DE position. Or the NT position...and all of those guys have tremendous upside.ToddsPhins and Gunner like this. -
I have a huge debate right now between wanting Jerry Hughes and Rolondo McClain with our first pick. I am willing to roll the dice and say Chris Clemons is our answer at FS for next year (see how he does rest of season) WR and TE I think can wait till round two or so. The big question to me is if Hughes and McClain are gone by the time we pick, do we go with replacement picks or do we go BPA which would probably be one of a number of DTs that would still be available. DT is loaded this year and we need someone to back up Soliai. Do we waste a need pick for a backup pick?
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I think Spiller probably can't carry a full load, but he's a weapon, especially in our offense. He has good hands, he runs with pace and power, he will get up in between the tackles and he can protect.skippysphins and Gunner like this. -
It would be ridiculously hard to say no to C.J. Spiller, depending on what we do with Ronnie Brown. If we don't take him, NE will.
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I think we're not even at the mid portion of the draft process and so many things are yet to happen. I would't worry too much about wasted picks or if McClain and Hughes aren't there. Trust me. ;)adamprez2003 likes this. -
skippysphins and ToddsPhins like this.
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I don't know what the deal is going to be with the CBA and which teams will retain who, etc...but I can tell you that KFFL has the following LBers as UFAs next year.
Keith Bulluck
Thomas Howard
Clint Ingram
D'Qwell Jackson
Rashad Jeanty
Derrick Johnson
Rocky McIntosh
Kirk Morrison
Barrett Ruud
Demeco Ryans
Lofa Tatupu
D.J. Williams
Some big names in there. Not all of it fits our system, but you know what? Some of it might.adamprez2003 and Gunner like this. -
I don't see Ronnie Brown as locked up as you do. If you notice, Ricky Williams has been taking more snaps as the Wildcat QB and I think these guys know that Ricky can run it. I see no real reason to assume Ronnie is the only back we have capable of running the Wildcat. They love Ricky Williams, he's going to retire a Dolphin. I'm convinced of that. He's cheap talent. They won't toss away cheap talent just to get rid of it. Ronnie Brown is about to demand a huge contract. Do we even know what his demands will be? As the QB of a formation that constitutes a large part of our offense, will his agent demand something that is over and above what you could expect to pay a Pro Bowl RB?
I'll say this. I wouldn't make Ronnie Brown the richest RB in the NFL. I don't see enough reason to do that. -
I know they love Ricky, but he has a plan and that plan involves retiring at the end of next season. I think 85% of players could be persuaded to change their mind, but Ricky isn't 85% of players. He's a percentile all to himself. I also think Brown's leadership ability, his all round talent, especially given our system and his relative youth make him a prime candidate to be locked up. Let's be honest here, Williams is very good. Brown is elite.
I think I'd be thinking long and hard about giving him a contract that reflected just how good he is. And I think I'd fall down on the side of paying the man. -
My priority positions are
1. WR
2. ILB
3. TE
I have a lot of faith in Clemons, so depending on what we see the rest of the year, S may or not make the list. NT is also a possibility but Soliai is looking good enough that I may be willing to just take a developmental type later.
I don't believe in reaching for positions though. So if a great talent is available early then I think you should go for the talent. In this draft I think that could mean taking an OLB or CJ spiller.
My short list:
Round 1: WR Dez Bryant, LB Brandon Spikes, WR Brandon Lafell, TE Jermaine Gresham, RB CJ Spiller (in no particular order).Gunner likes this. -
I would bet large money on them not picking a running back in the first round while Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are both scheduled to be here for 2010...regardless of how much of a homerun threat Spiller is. I love the talent, and they'll have respect for his talent, but they will go in a different direction if Ronnie and Ricky are still here, regardless of whether Ricky is schedule to retire after the year is through. -
Assuming they have a high opinion of Spiller, I'm not sure they'd pass on him b/c RB and RW are here. I really believe that Harvin would have been our choice last draft if he were available. I think they had 'offensive play maker' high on their priority list and I think that this regime will prioritize 'offensive play makers' this coming off season. I think it comes down to whether or not they see a special talent available. I think they saw that in Harvin. If they see that with Spiller then he may well be the choice regardless of RB and RW's status.
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Aside from maybe Polite none of those guys are Pro Bowl players if you know what I mean.
Plus there's the pipe dream factor. There's no way the Titans will let go of Keith Bulluck. Not gonna happen. No way the the Browns let D'Qwell Jackson walk. Even if you're rebuilding he's a core player you build around.
Its also very unlikely that Thomas Howard, Kirk Morrison, Clint Ingram, Barrett Ruud, Demeco Ryans, Lofa Tatupu, and D.J. Williams hit the open market. Those guys are all in the their prime. Look at it from the flip side. If any of them were playing for the Dolphins would we let them go?
That leaves Rashad Jeanty, Rocky McIntosh, and Derrick Johnson. Johnson is an interesting possibility but by no means a sure thing even if we were to sign him as a free agent.Gunner likes this. -
As for tight ends, I still like Aaron Hernandez of UF. He impresses me. He's more of an H-Back but I like him.
Re: CJ Spiller - He's a impressive player but I don't want a tailback that early. I'll take Ben Tate of Auburn in the 90-120 range and I'll be happy. Plus I question Spillers toughness. He gets dinged up so easily.
I was going to ask you yesterday but I forgot to; have you seen Jaiquawn Jarrett of Temple yet? He's not a bad looking safety for the late rounds IMO. Big, physical, instinctive, loves to hit but he will bite on the PA and he looks to lack elite foot speed IMO. He runs very well laterally though and I know Temple has used him in a Cover 1 centerfielder role. Doesn't look too bad.
Another late round Temple linebacker could be Alex Joseph. Stiff in the hips when dropping but he's a pretty good downhill linebacker who takes on blocks well, doesn't struggle much with trash at his feet, reads the game well and can make plays laterally. I think he's like 6'2", 250?
Last, I watched a re-run of Temple-Navy yesterday and defensive tackle Andre Neblett is a load. Very strong and is quick off the line. Though sometimes he makes the wrong read and leaves a gaping hole up the middle. I don't know if he gets drafted but at 6'2", 300 or so, he's a load and has some potential IMO.Gunner likes this. -
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Neblett I liked. He's kind of hard to ignore and Alex Joseph, the ILB, is in on every single play, literally. If he's not the making a solo tackle then he's assisting on it. -
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To expand on the Morrison story, I've heard that he's been unimpressive because he's really struggled against the run. Word is that he is lighter than his actual listed weight of 240. I've heard that he's more around 225-230 and that he's struggled taking on blocks. You can contribute some of his struggles to the piss-poor defensive line that Oakland has assembled but it's still a worry. To add, I know the Raiders moved an OLB to MLB to compete with Morrison, to try and get more out of him.
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http://www.owlsports.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=2831&path=footballalen1 likes this. -
adamprez2003 likes this.
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They're indicative of the type of players you can usually find in free agency. Quality starters. Role players. If Grove and Smiley make the Pro Bowl then I stand corrected.
I know Chad Pennington came in second for Offensive MVP voting. That's why I called him a success. However he also had a season-ending injury that was a surprise to absolutely nobody. Next year he will probably be released. Not traded. Not re-signed. Cut. I don't mean to sound heartless but I don't see them erecting a statue outside of Landshark for him anytime soon.
I also called Randy Starks a success. If we sign a free agent who is as good an inside linebacker as Randy Starks is a defensive end then I stand corrected.
Braylon Edwards was traded. He was not a free agent. If you want to talk about Bulluck being traded then sure I could see that happening but there's no way they let him walk.
I trust Alen's opinion 100% so if he says Kirk Morrison is on the outs then its probably true. However Morrison is also currently 3rd in the league for total tackles and 2nd in the league for solo tackles. Maybe the Raiders will let him walk. Maybe they won't. We'll see.
Obviously I don't know how many of those linebackers will make it to market. However we can look at history. Last year the top six linebackers Ray Lewis, Karlos Dansby, Leroy Hill, Jonathan Vilma, Channing Crowder, and Takeo Spikes were all re-signed or franchised by their respective teams. Bart Scott was signed by the Jets but that was because of Rex Ryan taking over in New York. The "big names" that signed with new teams? Andra Davis, Keith Brooking, Michael Boley, Angelo Crowell, and Marques Harris. The best two were Davis and Brooking. Both of them are over 30. That's free agency.
An Albert Haynesworth or Asante Samuel don't come along very often and when they do they cost an arm and leg. -
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I pretty much agree with Boomer, CK, and Raf about our needs etc. MLB, WR, TE and depth at OLB, NT, HB playmaker, maybe CB.
I really wish we had two 1sts for this draft to open up possibilities for McClain & Spiller/ Dez/ or Gresh.
If we draft McClain in the 1st, then the next 4 rounds need to be on finding an offensive weapon. IMO McClain and Derrick Johnson would make a PERFECT combo in the middle of our D. They'd be our defensive "thunder and lightening". LOL.
I'm not worried about Safety right now. Clemons has potential and he's been unactive until last week, so adding another Safety before Vontae, Sean, Clemons, and Gibril have a chance to gel & mature would be silly IMO. If our D line can keep it going through 4 qtrs then there is no need to focus on our Secondary right now.
Speaking of DLine..... this is the strength of our Defense. Like I always feel... you find a strength and develop it. One important aspect of this draft would be to add an extra penetrating, havoc-wreaking DLineman to help carry over our defensive dominance into the 3rd and 4th qtrs. One of the sleepers I think might be a perfect complement to Starks, Merling, and Soliai is Al Woods. He's used to playing in a talented rotation at LSU, and is very explosive for a big guy. I like Vince Oghobaase from Duke for this role also. I'm not sure who else you guys like, but I feel this is something that should be addressed this year.
It would be nice to give a guy like Spiller a year to groom and add a little more size. He has the frame for it. He doesn't have to be RW's replacement to be draftable by us. Do you guys want to keep seeing Polite split wide?..... or is CJ more enticing? He's an immediate upgrade to Bess in KR and is the explosive 3rd down back we desperately need who can block, run or catch. Teams don't game plan against Cobbs. I doubt he's even an after thought to opposing DCs. Spiller has to be game planned for and having him on the team adds 1 extra dimension to a spuddering offense. Independantly game planning for Spiller, Ronnie, the Ronnie WC, the Pat WC, and Henne (with decent receivers) would put every DC we face in the looney bin.
IMO it seems like there is a lot of athletic OLBs this draft so there should be some talent available in 2-4th round. If Sintim and Ev Brown went in the 2nd last draft, then Hughes, JPP and a few others probably will, too, this year. The only pass rusher I'd take in the 1st round so far is Derrick Morgan (and maybe Ricky Sapp).... but that's just me, and like Boomer wisely put it- there's a lot of football to play so players will still be emerging and demerging as the months go by. I'm wondering if Dennis Pitta can be the smart playmaking Dallas Clark type???? I'm also wondering how Noel Devine's hands are. I'm really liking this kid as a poor man's Spiller. If he runs a sub 4.3 and can be gotten in the 4th round, then I'm looking hard at him as a playmaker. Who else besides him and Brandon James?rafael likes this. -
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It is tough to tell who they may acquire this offseason, we have a host of FA already, including Matt Roth and JT, and no one can say if JT wants to play another season and if he does wish to play, I doubt we get away with paying him 1.5 million.
And to further cloud the discussion, Y Bell and G Wilson both signed large contracts, do we sit one of them and take a rookie S?
Looking at this strategically, to me we go with a Te or a Wr, more than likely a Te though as Sparano is a fan of do it all types of Te's.
After that, it really is a toss up, what we know about Sparano and Co, is the put massive stock in thier player evaluation ability, what they decide privately about a player is just the way it is going to be.
For example, we could trade Ted Ginn and then draft a Spiller to take his on his roles, or we could keep Ginn, but go large Wr. -
Wow. We're really getting off the subject here. Your original point was that we might be able to sign a top notch linebacker via free agency next year so then we won't need to draft a guy. All I'm saying is that's easier said than done. Check out this list of some of the top linebackers this year.
Patrick Willis
Jonathan Vilma
Curtis Lofton
Jerod Mayo
Barrett Ruud
David Harris
Ray Lewis
DeMeco Ryans
Jon Beason
Karlos Dansby
Lance Briggs
Bradie James
Ray Lewis
James Farrior
None of them were free agent acquistions. The only top linebacker I can think of who was a free agent is London Fletcher.
Keith Bulluck - top tackler on his team
D'Qwell Jackson - top tackler on his team
Barrett Ruud - top tackler on his team
DeMeco Ryans - top tackler on his team
Lofa Tatupu - top tackler on his team (when he's not injured)
D.J. Williams - top tackler on his team
Kirk Morrison - top tackler on his team
Thomas Howard - 2nd top tackler on his team and a top tackler in the league
Andra Davis, Keith Brooking, Michael Boley, Angelo Crowell, and Marques Harris are not as good as D.J. Williams, Lofa Tatupu, Thomas Howard, DeMeco Ryans, and Barrett Ruud.
Tell you what. I'll concede Clint Ingram. Maybe he will get away from the Jaguars. Quentin Groves is his backup. However that only proves my point. The only reason a team would let a player go is because they feel they've got a more talented player to take his place. Where do those more talented players come from? The draft. -
I used to believe in the concept of "luxury picks". Now I only believe in who will or will not make a team better. The Cardinals drafting Dez, however, would still be an example of a luxury pick IMO. If we drafted someone in the 1st or 2nd round who is exactly like someone (of quality) we already have, it would be considered as grounds for a luxury pick, especially if there's depth involved. Spiller is like no one we have on this team, so I really can't call him a luxury pick personally, but I understand where you're coming from Ash. ;). However, I'd call Jonathan Dwyer a luxury pick bc he is in a very similar mold to Ronnie.
Posted via Mobile DeviceAnonymous likes this. -
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We're in the same boat. We need an offensive playmaker.... one who can help take the pressure off of us from having to always play mistake free, 10 yard at a time, low 3rd down conversion percentage, field goal football. Spiller has 19 plays of 50 or more yards despite teams rarely kicking the ball to him and having a crappy line. We need a guy like CJ who can help our offense put up points early while our defense is dominating the 1st half. Our D is setting us up to really put a team away early, but we're squandering opportunities up the wazoo. One quality playmaker couldve probably been the edge needed to beat Indy, NO, and SD.
I dont see Spiller as a RB. I see him as a playmaker and ultimate teammate.... and if we had a guy like him at the start of the season, we might be a 1 loss team right now. IMO of course.
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All I know is we need a consistent, explosive, offensive weapon of any kind, because right now our offense is about as explosive as constipation..... when we need to be more like Taco Bell diarrhea-- fast, quick through the hole, spraying who knows where, and impossible to contain.
Hell, I'd settle for the occasional squirts right now. Even a regular poo is better than constipation where you're sitting on the crapper for 45 minutes but nothing comes out. Yes that's a metaphor to the Indy game. (Simile?)
What's so hard about adding a guy like Spiller who can help us poo quicker with the occasional break away runs? We've got our fiber in Ronnie to keep us balanced and regular; now we need our laxitive. :shifty:adamprez2003 likes this. -
After the season was over nobody called him a luxury pick.
Now as far as the Dolphins and C.J. Spiller go I don't know. It would depend who was still available. Considering our needs and the fact that we already have Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams it would be pretty hard to pass up an Eric Berry, Chad Jones, Dez Bryant, Arrelious Benn, Rolando McClain, Brandon Spikes, Jerry Hughes, Arthur Jones, or Jermaine Gresham if they were still on the board.
That being said I wouldn't exactly cry if we drafted C.J. Spiller.
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