I posted something similar to this at the end of the season, but I've since refined the formulas.
I wanted to see how good a receiver was with the ball in their hands so I came up with the following system. Its all based off of catches. I only used receivers who caught 50 or more passes. So I found the average TD, Yards, YAC, 1st Dwns & Fumbles...per catch for each WR. I then weighted and normalized those numbers based on the league averages of each category. I added 3 points overall for 100+ catches and i subtracted 3 points for under 51 catches. Here is what the table looks like for the average numbers for 51-99 catches:
[table="width: 700, class: grid"]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[td][/td]
[td]Rec[/td]
[td]TD[/td]
[td]TD/Rec[/td]
[td]Yrds[/td]
[td]Yrds/Rec[/td]
[td]YAC[/td]
[td]YAC/Rec[/td]
[td]1st[/td]
[td]1st/Rec[/td]
[td]Fum[/td]
[td]Fum/Rec[/td]
[td]Score[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]League Avg[/td]
[td]70[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]0.0828[/td]
[td]943[/td]
[td]13.5[/td]
[td]311[/td]
[td]4.4530[/td]
[td]46[/td]
[td].6586[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]0.0143[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td]4.01[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]4.01[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]4.01[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]4.01[/td]
[td][/td]
[td].3580[/td]
[td]15.68[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
***I ask that you remember this is only to gauge what the receiver does once he's already caught the ball, that's why I didn't include drops or targets.***
[table="width: 350, class: grid"]
[tr][td] James Jones [/td] [td] 21.85 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Vincent Jackson [/td] [td] 21.18 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Cecil Shorts [/td] [td] 21.13 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Mike Williams [/td] [td] 20.88 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Julio Jones [/td] [td] 20.50 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] T.Y. Hilton [/td] [td] 19.54 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Denarius Moore [/td] [td] 19.13 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Michael Crabtree [/td] [td] 18.76 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Dez Bryant [/td] [td] 18.35 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Eric Decker [/td] [td] 17.93 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Demaryius Thomas [/td] [td] 17.93 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Andre Johnson [/td] [td] 17.70 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Calvin Johnson [/td] [td] 17.62 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Wes Welker [/td] [td] 17.52 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Brandon Marshall [/td] [td] 17.51 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Randall Cobb [/td] [td] 17.21 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] A. J. Green [/td] [td] 16.91 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Marques Colston [/td] [td] 16.86 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Miles Austin [/td] [td] 16.74 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Lance Moore [/td] [td] 16.63 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Josh Gordon [/td] [td] 16.62 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Victor Cruz [/td] [td] 16.57 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Percy Harvin [/td] [td] 16.51 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Reggie Wayne [/td] [td] 16.19 [/td][/tr]
[TR="bgcolor: #009ca5"][td] Mike Wallace [/td] [td] 16.18 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Roddy White [/td] [td] 16.00 [/td][/tr]
[TR="bgcolor: #009ca5"][td] Brandon Gibson [/td] [td] 15.96 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Malcolm Floyd [/td] [td] 15.72 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Sidney Rice [/td] [td] 15.69 [/td][/tr]
[TR="bgcolor: #000000"][td] League Average [/td] [td] 15.68 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Steve Johnson [/td] [td] 15.65 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Andrew Hawkins [/td] [td] 15.48 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Justin Blackmon [/td] [td] 15.31 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Antonio Brown [/td] [td] 15.12 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Anaquan Boldin [/td] [td] 15.11 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Jeremy Maclin [/td] [td] 15.09 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Steve Smith [/td] [td] 14.99 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Greg Little [/td] [td] 14.65 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Hakeem Nicks [/td] [td] 14.30 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Dwayne Bowe [/td] [td] 14.28 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Andre Roberts [/td] [td] 14.02 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Kendall Wright [/td] [td] 13.80 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Jeremy Kerley [/td] [td] 13.61 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Larry Fitzgerald [/td] [td] 13.44 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Donnie Avery [/td] [td] 12.82 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Brandon Lloyd [/td] [td] 12.73 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Danny Amendola [/td] [td] 12.09 [/td][/tr]
[TR="bgcolor: #009ca5"][td] Davone Bess [/td] [td] 11.91 [/td][/tr]
[TR="bgcolor: #009ca5"][td] Brian Hartline [/td] [td] 11.81 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Jason Avant [/td] [td] 9.67 [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] Dexter McCluster [/td] [td] 9.55 [/td][/tr]
[/table]
I highlighted Dolphins receivers last year and this year. I think the thing that is striking to me, is just how much we've upgraded or receiving corp. We added 2 above league average receivers to a group that was clearly very, very poor with the ball.
The other thing this gives us insight to, is just how little help Tannehill received from the WR position last year. Once again these numbers are based on the QB already doing his job and getting the ball to the receiver. Is it the end all, be all? No. But I think its a fairly strong indication that our offense and Tannehill specifically should have dramatically better numbers.
Discuss.
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Interesting that Fitz ranked so low, but then he is usually wrapped up tighter than Wake's jersey... not surprised to see where Bess and Hartline were at all with the lack of speed and poor balance.
Fin D likes this. -
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Gibson averages a measly 2.2 YAC per reception, which is one of the worst in the league. I don't think he's an above average receiver with or without the ball in his hands.
We have one dynamic receiver. No defense is scared of Hartline or Gibson. Let's pray Wallace stays healthy throughout the year. -
Also, after reviewing a few games from last yr, hartline makes the comeback routes look easy. If tannehill can improve his long ball accuracy and hit hartline on a few of those bombs he missed last yr, the opposing CB may be forced to give hartline a couple of more yards of space which will make quick throws like the outs and slants there for the taking. :)
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Thanks for a great post and thread!
It's obvious that we improved our receivers in the area of producing after the catch. I expect that Gibson will become a fan favorite here for his ability to move the chains. I wonder how much Keller improves the same category over Fasano. I also wonder how much we could get from other players on our roster that I see as likely to provide some after the catch production. I'm thinking of Thigpen, Matthews and Bumphis. I know we don't have stats on all those guys, so I'm asking more in a theoretical opinion sense. -
Look at the Wr's and who was throwing them the ball, it looks like only Antonio Brown had an upper echelon "proven" Qb tossing him passes and underperforming.
Take Fitz for example, elite Wr, guys tossing him passes were dreadful..on the high side, only Cecil Shorts took a crappy Qb situation and performed at a high level.
That suggests Shorts is going to be one hell of a Wr if he stays healthy. -
IMO that is a huge factor in people's opinions on QBs. Luck and Kaepernick, for example, seemed to get so many big plays out of their targets (Davis, Crabtree, Hilton, Wayne). As I watched their games I often thought that if RT had thrown the same pass or made the exact same play, that his target (Hartline, Bess or Fasano) would have not provided anything after the catch. The result is that fans think look at how great one QB is as a play maker or at the 4th quarter comeback compared to another QB even though they are doing the same thing.
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Interesting to see so many good receivers under the league average even if a few did have poor QB situations (not that it stopped Shorts).
Just shows that different receivers have different strengths, adding someone like Wallace with his big play ability and speed with the ball in his hands to someone like Hartline who's more sure handed and a good route runner gives us a much more interesting attack than everyone having similar skills like last year.Fin D likes this. -
That's a key point that many ignored during the Hartline discussions earlier. The best passing attacks have WRs that can attack different areas of the field and different types of defenses and defenders. Sure it would be great to have a core made out of five Calvin Johnsons, but that's not realistic.Fin D likes this.
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
I think some of you guys are reading too much into this formula. It basically shows one phase of the receiver's game, albeit an important one. It doesn't prove or disprove anybody is performing well for his team or not, because it doesn't factor in the multitude of other areas that go into the passing game (QB skill, broken play or not, double/single coverage, down and distance, o-line, who the other receiver was, secondary skill, etc etc on and on forever). It's a great microscope on those particular areas he focused on with the statistics though...good stuff, thanks for the work!
Fin D likes this. -
Hmm, Freeman maybe, but he put 2 Wr's at the top of the list, otherwise it looks like a who is who of NFL Qb's
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Guest
I banged the drum insanely hard for him this off season. He represented a young inexpensive option in my opinion.
With Binns and Matthews out, if we struggle or suffer another injury I'd love us to go after him.
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Guest
Aaron Rodgers
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well if that's the case let's call up Denver and ask about Demaryius and Decker. if they reject us we can try New Orleans to check Colston's availability...with hall of fame QB's those teams don't really even need these guys.Fin-Omenal likes this.
Guest
James Jones is a third receiver with a third receiver reputation. Color me shocked your argument is on a tangent. The Packers also could use defensive help. The right defensive player could possibly entice them.
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