The Bills played their 'Super Bowl' last week, at home vs the evil empire. Fell behind early, expended a ton of energy in a furious come back only to fall short. Experience tells me there's little chance of Buffalo bringing their A game to Miami, especially in the September heat. Miami is playing their home opener, in a revamped stadium, off a sobering loss. The chances of them being flat are about nil. I expect the Dolphins to play like their season is on the line. Will it be enough?
The Bills present unique challenges in all three phases. Offensively, they have a wealth of big play threats, Harvin, Watkins, McCoy, Clay, can all turn routine plays into back breakers. Their weakness is the OL and the QB. Tyrod Taylor is not impressive at all when it comes to delivering accurately from the pocket, if Miami can get pressure in his face while keeping contain Taylor will struggle. But in order for that to work the Dolphins must slow down or stop McCoy and impressive rookie RB Karlin Williams. Expect a lot of zone from the D this week, Coyle simply doesn't have the personell to keep up with Buffalo's skill guys. Jones and Aikens will be in the box early and often to stop the run and play the quick pass game, Miami's corners will have to hold their own outside w minimal safety help and after last week's showing I have to think the Bills are scheming up various ways to attack deep down the field.
Defensively the Bills are a nightmare. Lazor must find ways to stay on schedule and avoid obvious passing situations as much as possible. So far Miami has struggled running the ball and attacking down field, the two things that slow down aggressive defenses. A big question mark will be whether Rex goes heavy w man coverage and blitz schemes, his MO, or if he relies on his front four and plays coverage to take away the short game behind it. Tannehill's performance vs Jax last week may discourage a typical coach from playing zone but Ryan has never shied away from doing whatever he feels and accepting the consequences. The Dolphins must be prepared for any and everything. Sunday would a good time to finally make a commitment to the run game. Miller has yet to get on track and 40+ passes vs the Bills is courting disaster.
This game is a virtual tossup. The match ups favor Buffalo slightly, the intangibles are definitely in Miami's favor. The fan in me won't let me pick the Bills, I'm going Dolphins 23 Bills 17. Though I am not at all confident about it.
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Springveldt likes this.
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I think the difference will come down to Tannehill's injuries. Predicting our offense will be nonexistent.
Piston Honda likes this. -
Miami is going to get smoked on Sunday. I hate saying it but I can't see how they win.
Miami 10 Buffalo 24Piston Honda likes this. -
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It's reasonable to think that the "furious rally" they had against the Patriots also gave them some confidence.
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I think this game comes down to whether we fixed our run defense or not. Buffalo is averaging 150+ rushing yards per game so far this year (2nd in the league), and we're giving up 140+ rushing yards per game (6th worst in the league).
If that pattern holds, we're dead. If we stop the run and force Tyrod Taylor to beat us, we'll win (their WR's are impressive, but that means little with who they have at QB). So Coyle better go all out in stopping in the run. We'll see.. if there's ever a game where Suh can say the first 2 games were just anomalies, this one's it.
Go Dolphins!Piston Honda likes this. -
Or they are physically and emotionally exhausted.
We had better win the special teams battle or we have no chance. The D can give up a bunch of rushing yards if we can limit big plays, and the O better put up some points, most likely through the air, to give us a much needed "W." -
Did you see the Skins vs Rams game? Rams arguably have an even better front 7 and Washington totally dominated them. I'm reassessing whether the D was flat in week 1.
It's the home opener in a revamped Park vs a hated rival. I can't see them coming out flat.77FinFan likes this. -
I definitely agree stopping the run will be key. Buffalo struggled to run vs NE but some of that had to do w falling behind early.
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That's a good point.
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I think both teams have about an equal chance of winning. Don't let how the team played, or didn't play, on the road vs lesser opponents steer you off course.
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We're talking about Miami here, not the Redskins or the Rams. Miami's calling card under Joe Philbin has been coming out flat. Even in games Miami's won, Miami comes out pretty flat. How many times have opponents scored on their first drive? How many times, especially when it's the opening possession, has Miami's opponent scored on their first drive? Based on what we've seen Miami do under Joe Philbin, what in the world would make you expect them to come out not flat?
Regarding the D, specifically, I think Buffalo's personnel are setup pretty well to mash Miami. You've got Earl Mitchell banged up, and he was playing like the Dallas Thomas of the defense (I'm not joking) the first two weeks. Cameron Wake's historically had trouble against bigger OTs, including Seantrel Henderson in the past. Kelvin Sheppard isn't a world beater at MLB and Misi isn't 100%. I think the only way Miami counters this is if Kevin Coyle figures out he needs to play C.J. Mosley and Jordan Phillips at 1-technique FAR more than Earl Mitchell and Suh (leave Suh at 3-technique). I'd almost argue that you need to play Shelby or Fede over Wake in the base this week. On top of that, Miami hasn't fared all that well against mobile QBs either.
I think for Miami to win, they're going to have to make Tyrod Taylor pass, and get lucky with him giving the ball away several times. At this juncture, I don't see Miami's run defense being good enough not to get mashed by Buffalo's run game.Springveldt likes this. -
Apparently you have not watched the bills play this year. Don't blame you I hate them with a passion.
Tyrod Taylor can beat us
In two games this season, Taylor has thrown for 437 yards on 75.5-percent completions with four touchdowns and three interceptions. He has also rushed 14 times for 84 yards with a score.
his play making ability with his feet is what worries me -
I watched him last Sunday for the first 3 quarters of the game. Did you watch that? Tyrod Taylor SUCKED!
His stats looked a lot better after his comeback in the 4th. I admit I didn't see the 4th quarter (turned the game off after it was basically won by NE), but I really doubt he just wasn't himself the first 3 quarters and only showed who he really was in the 4th. We'll see on Sunday. Based on what I saw, I'm not at all worried about the Bills QB. -
My view on Taylor is that if he's being asked to convert long yardage situations he will struggle big time. If he's allowed to hand off 30+ times, use play action and throw in favorable situations then he's plenty good enough to manage the offense.
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Great analysis. I'd feel a lot better about this game if Cameron and Albert were 100%. They'd be really handy vs the Bills in particular. It sounds like Cameron has a fair shot of playing and hopefully he isn't slowed up because he's the 1 true mismatch we have on O. He's a guy I think would give the Bills trouble and he get you big chunk plays without a lot of time to throw. Sure would be nice to have he and Sims in this game. I think this O is at its best with a 2te set. Might help our run offense as well. Anybody have an expert opinion on groin injuries? Anybody know how serious Cameron's is?
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I don't disagree with you in general but I do think perhaps you're over emphasizing Miami's weaknesses and downplaying Buffalo's just a bit.
I brought up the Rams bc they're DL is very good also and Wash had no trouble running up and down the field on them so perhaps they're better than we all thought.
I totally agree Miami has a habit of falling behind early. They were behind early vs Buffalo the last three matchups. However in both home games they came from behind to take the lead, one game they won, the other was the Clabo vs Williams sack strip fiasco that led to a loss.
Overall I agree, gotta make Taylor the focal point of their offense by stopping the run. But it has to be done without giving their receivers too many one on one matchups, which will be difficult. -
Agree 100%. Sims and the two TE set is definitely the best run formation, especially since Philbin doesn't seem to believe in having a fullback on the roster. In addition, Buffalo has a very good Nickel back in Nickel Roby #27, he and Landry are going to be a key matchup. TBH if Sims was able to go I'd prefer the 2TE set and keeping Roby on the sideline. He's that good.
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Hope you're wrong is all I can say.
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If we win the toss, I'd defer. I know it hasn't worked out yet, but with it being the home opener in a newly renovated stadium, putting the defense on the field first gets the crowd into it right away. Then if we can get a quick stop, it could do wonders confidence wise.
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First off, being that this is a division game, anything can happen, but imo, Tanne will have to connect downfield for us to win this game, the Bills will lean heavy on short routes and the run game forcing Tanne to try to throw deep, he has to connect when he has the chance for us to have a chance in this game.
The Bills look like they're better, the Fins look like they're worse, and they finished with a better record than us last year as it is. -
Can't string together an oline worth a single damn and we now can't even win the line of scrimmage on defense either?
Oh yeah, I think we win this one handsomely.
MIA 35
BUF 21
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
That may work if our crowd was in the seats in force before 20 min into the game. -
I'm interested to see how the renovations affect the crowd noise and atmosphere. Hoping for a boost there.
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The Patriots were able to attack down field with their TE and RB. Darby, the Bills CB2 has had some issues with the deep ball as well. Honestly though, I think Buffalo has a better shot at connecting deep on paper. On the field it'll come down to which team can get a run game going.
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
Personally, I think it is IMPERATIVE that we strike deep. Get a PI call, or a connection, or at least move SOMEBODY on that defense away from the line. If they can squat on the short stuff all game long, we have no prayer. -
We have to successfully run the ball, and hit on a deep throw. This would be the perfect game to try it with Devante Parker.
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All good points. I'm hoping this will be the week Kenny Stills makes an appearance, Lamar Miller too.77FinFan likes this.
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Our D line better show up. Biggest disappointment of the season and a big reason why we are 1-1.
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Wake and Vernon are nursing injuries. They'd better eat their Wheaties or spinach or whatever it is they eat before the game Sunday.
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
Before the season started, after what they did to Atlanta, I had visions of this line just demolishing OLs across the league. Now I'm at the point I'm just hoping for a 3rd down sack or two, maybe, please? -
Understood completely. But keep in mind the rest of the league is looking at the same things we are seeing. Offenses are going to game plan ways to neutralize Miami's DL. The Pats completely took Buffalo's D apart last week. It happens. Does anyone think the Bills D isn't any good based on what happened in one game? I hope not. And the same goes for Miami. They're still working to get things in order, that much is obvious. It's a long season though, I'm confident they'll start to play better.
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This defense and especially defensive line looked dominant in the preseason against other teams starters. Offense and mainly the run game was looking a lot better too. I was expecting a big year after watching that. It was preseason but still against the starting teams.
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I've learned preseason is very rarely a good barometer, good or bad. I also don't think the general fan attitude matches what's going on w the players, and they're the ones who matter. We will find out what the team is made of these next two weeks vs division rivals. I can forgive subpar efforts vs Wash and Jax but the Bills and Jets are up next, no excuses IMO.
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I normally don't put a lot of stock into preseason either but this year they looked really good.
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I don't know what would make you think this year's preseason would be any different from years' past.
In the regular season, the goal is to win. In the preseason the goal is to evaluate and focus on execution, not end results ...... each player has very different reasons for being out there. The veterans are playing not to get hurt and the future UPS drivers are out there trying to knock someone's block off to make the team. You add in the fact that teams are RARELY scheming and you have a concoction of illusion.
Of course we splurged in free agency again, reeling in the most expensive defensive player in NFL history and loaded up on WR's ...... so naturally the average fan was inclined to think it was different this time.Piston Honda likes this. -
Agreed. I think the preseason and off season reports created a level of expectations that have obviously not been met in the first two weeks. At the same time I think the first two weeks have created a new level of expectations that is equally off base. The next few weeks will tell the real story. For two years Miami's been perceived as the team that can't finish late in the season. For all the hand wringing early the successful teams are the ones playing well in December not September..
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