I was thinking about this recently. When the Phins drafted Tannehill with the #8 pick, my main objection was that i felt he was not worthy of a #8 pick on account of his rawness.
However thinking about it, and assuming he would have had the same numbers this year, as he had his last college season, where would Ryan Tannehill be ranked in this draft?
It is interesting, because he could arguably be the #1 QB prospect in this draft. Geno Smith is the default #1 QB prospect and likely #1 overall pick in the draft. Would Tannehill be above him? I think he could.
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I think Tannehill would be. I've made an argument for Miami to draft him last year comparing him to the last few draft classes:
2012: Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden
2011: Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder (All 3 other QBs had questions. Would say that Tannehill would have gone a little after Newton)
2010: Bradford, Tebow (Bradford was getting pub. Doubtful Tannehill would have gone before him, but clearly is the #2 QB in this draft)
2009: Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman (Think if he went in this draft, Tannehill would be a Jet)
2008: Ryan, Flacco (Ryan wasn't an elite QB. Quite possible Tannehill could have been in the conversation for 1st QB off the board)
2007: Jamarcus Russel, Brady Quinn (Think most media pundits would rank Tanny over Russel, though who knows what Davis would do)
2006: Young, Leinart, Cutler (Hard to say where he'd rank here. Probably between Young and Leinart. Though all these guys were even)
2005: Smith, Rodgers, Campbell (Think Tannehill would have gone 1st off the board here)
2004: Manning, Rivers, Big Ben, Losman (Think he'd be ranked between Rivers and Ben here. Forgot Losman went 1st round!)
2003: Palmer, Leftwhich, Boller, Grossman (He'd be right after Palmer. Top 3-5 pick easily)
2002: Carr, Harrington, Ramsey (Was a little guy during this draft... Don't quite remember. Would he have gone over Carr?)
Overall, the history of the draft classes the last ten years indicates that he could have gone 1st four times possibly. Though I think the only other class he'd be the 3rd QB taken, would be in the Eli, Rivers draft class. As for the 2013 class, it's kind of hard to tell right now, since the draft buzz is the reason Tannehill rose so high in the same place, so who knows who gets hype within the next few months. As of now, seeing how Tannehill has looked and seeing how lackluster the QB class seems early on... There's no way I'd trade Tannehill for anybody in this draft class.SICK and NolesNPhinsFan like this. -
djphinfan likes this.
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The best thing about Tannehill so far IMO is that you can already say his floor is high enough that he can be a starter in the NFL and perform at least at the level of the game manager. His awareness, decision-making, and command of the offense are clearly that good IMO.
I think it's too early to tell how high his ceiling is, but his floor is already at the level of the game manager, and you can't say that about every QB in his rookie season. Look at how John Beck performed, for example, or even Jamarcus Russell (#1 overall). Guys like that have a floor so low they can't even be starters. They lose too many games for you to even be game managers.NolesNPhinsFan, Boomer, Bpk and 2 others like this. -
His upside scenario to me seems at Eli Manning.
In the same way Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees are the top 4 with Eli nipping on their heels, I think the next wave once Rodgers is done will be Luck, Griffin, Stafford and Tannehill with Ryan, Wilson, and Freeman right behind him. -
Guy has a lifetime rating of 82 and in the best year hits 93. Starting in week 7 he went a whole month where he threw 1 TD (yes I said 1) and 6 INTs. Last week 0 TD, 2 INTs. Eli is not elite, he's nowhere near elite, he's just occasionally good, esp. in the playoffs.
There is no Eli in Elite.
Ok there is but you know what I mean ;) -
And seeing as he only threw 29 TDs all year you're telling me he threw 13 TDs through the first 3 quarters? That's the definition of elite now? -
Yea, I don't see Eli as elite. I think he's in the second tier with Rivers, Schaub, Ryan and maybe other QBs I'm forgetting.
I would be pretty happy if Tannehill ends up in that category but for now I'm holding out hope he's the next Aaron Rodgers. -
Also how is Eli not Elit? seriously have you seen the two super bowls he won? 2007 he had to go on the road and beat a decent Bucs team, a good Cowboy team, that had the Giants number all season, and a great Packer team, who had Brett Favre and looked like the clear favorite to go to the super bowl team, then he had to play the best team ever. 18-0 New England Patriots. He went in as a 12 point dog and had the greatest drive in Super Bowl history to win the super bowl. Then last year, did the same thing, Won all their games on the road, beat a great Falcon team, the heavy favorite Packer team, and beat the New England Patriots on another final drive. How is that not Elite?Last edited: Dec 22, 2012 -
I would take him over any QB that's going to be available in the '13 draft, and considering if we didn't take him last year we'd probably still be looking this year (unless we happened to rate Wilson higher than Seattle) then we definitely chose right.
Bpk likes this. -
If he's not a second tier QB, neither is Eli. -
I don't see how anyone can say Rivers wasn't an elite QB at one point. I guess it depends on your definition of elite. He was certainly one of the top five to seven guys at one point and to me that is elite.
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But yes, he did decline. From elite category to second tier category. -
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Eli teeters the elite category, he's in the closet to it one,which is a different category, which is not the category that rivers has been in for three years.
Bree's..Manning..Roth..Brady..Rodgers..elite..
Next level..stafford..Eli..Griffin..Luck..Wilson..
Next level...whoever you want..doesn't matter. -
You didn't predict anything. You have been saying for years he's going to decline. Year after year you were wrong. You're more lucky than logical. Good job on that, I guess. -
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Rivers needs some weapons, he is a an upper echelon QB.
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Qbs I would take over Rivers moving forward..young or old.
Manning..Brady..Rodgers..Roth..Bree's. Matt Ryan...Luck..Wilson..RG..Ckap..Tannehill...Flacco..Eli..Alex Smith..Carson Palmer..Matt shaub..Tony Romo..Josh freeman..Cam newton..
Am I missing anyone.. -
As for Tannehill in 2013 draft. It makes no sense. I despise fictional what if threads. Ryan is the Dolphins QB and will be playing tomorrow.djphinfan likes this.
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