Clock ticking on Tannehill: What has changed and what people say about him
SUNDAY BUZZ COLUMN
Mostly Dolphins talk on the opening weekend of the season:
### Ryan Tannehill’s renewed mission to prove he’s a playoff-caliber franchise quarterback begins Sunday, and he’s unusually blunt about what he will demand from himself.
“I am at the point in my career now where progression has to be made fast and there are no more rookie mistakes,” he said. “You can’t play quarterback and have excuses.”
So much rides on this season for Tannehill, for both his team and his financial outlook.
Tannehill has 2014 and 2015 remaining on his four-year, $12.68 million rookie contract.
But the Dolphins must decide by next May whether to exercise his fifth-year option. Because he was a top-10 pick, that option would entail paying him, in 2016, the average salary of the NFL’s 10 highest-paid quarterbacks, a figure of about $15 million.
If the Dolphins pick up the fifth-year option (which is very, very likely if he plays well this season) but he bombs in 2015, the Dolphins could still escape paying any of that 2016 salary unless he sustains an injury that sidelines him all of 2016.
But if he plays great this season, the Dolphins might offer a long-term contract after the season. The Bengals did that after three seasons with Andy Dalton (given six years, $96 million) and the 49ers did it with Colin Kaepernick (six years, $126 million), although they did not have fifth-year options because they weren’t first-round picks.
The fascinating question is how much new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor can elevate Tannehill, who said the new system has been challenging but enjoyable.
Asked if he needed a new voice at this point in his career, Tannehill politely shrugged off the question, out of respect to Mike Sherman, his coach at Texas A&M and coordinator with the Dolphins.
He said he is “making the best of” the change, noting diplomatically it has altered his “perspective on some plays." He calls the system "challenging" but said he has enjoyed the new approach.
Backup Matt Moore said Lazor “has opened up Ryan’s eyes to some things” and is “more demanding” than Sherman was: “He sets the bar high and lets you know if you’re not reaching it.”
Former NFL coach Dan Reeves told me Lazor might be the smartest assistant he has ever had. And as Dan Le Batard noted, Joe Gibbs has called him the brightest young assistant in football.
Lazor made it a priority to polish Tannehill’s footwork, which Tannehill believes will improve his accuracy.
And this is key: Tannehill was the NFL’s fifth-most effective quarterback when he left the pocket the past two seasons, according to ESPN. But he inexplicably did it less often than the league average. Lazor is expected to roll him out more.
But can Tannehill, who was drafted 80 spots before Nick Foles, achieve anything close to what Foles did last season (27 touchdowns and two interceptions) under Lazor and Chip Kelly in Philadelphia?
“Before last year, Tannehill had more consistency on accuracy and decision-making than Foles,” former Texans and ex-Redskins general manager Charley Casserly said.
“Can Tannehill do what Foles did? In theory, yes. But Foles had a hell of a line, a Pro Bowl receiver, great running back. Tannehill doesn’t have those things.”
Nobody is expecting a 27/2 TD/INT ratio from Tannehill, who said this week: “I’m not Nick Foles!”
But the most optimistic comparison might be Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, whose second-season numbers were very similar to Tannehill’s.
Tannehill had an 81.7 rating last season, with 24 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and a 60.4 completion percentage. Ryan, in his second season, was at 80.9, with 22 touchdowns, 14 picks and a 58.3 completion percentage.
But Ryan improved dramatically in his third season, finishing with a 91.0 rating, 28 touchdowns and nine picks. The Dolphins would love that type of growth.
But also consider this: Of the 18 quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 from 2000 to 2011, seven experienced drops in their QB rating in their third season.
Eli Manning, Mark Sanchez and Cam Newton improved their QB ratings slightly in year three. Ryan, Sam Bradford and mediocre quarterbacks David Carr, Joey Harrington and Byron Leftwich improved a lot.
There’s a lot of faith in Tannehill around the league. Some of the feedback from other NFL coaches:
### Saints coach Sean Payton: “You're seeing someone who hasn't had a ton of reps at the position who may not have had the same amount of work a lot of his peers had, based on his college playing time. He's very smart.
“When we prepared to play them last season, we saw him as someone who is very athletic and can move. Time will tell, but his future is bright. I've heard nothing but good things from people who have been there that have worked with him.”
Payton, who I spoke to earlier this offseason, isn’t convinced that definitive judgment can be formed during a quarterback’s third season.
“I don’t think that was the case for Kurt Warner [or] Trent Green,” Payton said. “I think it varies based on players and situation. It's a position that may be one that can have success later than earlier, a little more so than other positions.”
### Falcons coach Mike Smith: “I think Tannehill is a very good quarterback. He can create when the play breaks down. That's one of his strongest traits, that he has the ability to run and create.”
### Redskins coach Jay Gruden told me: “No question he’s got all the tools you want. Great arm, quick release, can get out of trouble with his legs. He’s on the right track, no doubt.”
### Patriots coach Bill Belichick said Tannehill is "excellent" in the two-minute offense and Chargers coach Mike McCoy said: “I think he has a bright future. Remember, any young player is going to have some ups and downs.”
### ESPN’s Ron Jaworski, who ranked him 23rd among all quarterbacks: “I really expected more out of Tannehill last season. I loved what I saw his rookie season and thought he was a potential superstar. In 2013 he held on to the ball too long and wasn't decisive with his reads.
“To be fair, he also had a historically bad offensive line blocking for him and was sacked 58 times (10 more than any other QB). That certainly had an impact. Lazor will help him with an up-tempo offense, and Tannehill should be improved this season.”
Though Andrew Luck has been the better player, Tannehill’s career rating isn’t substantially lower than Luck’s (81.5 to 79.1). And even with his deep-ball struggles, Tannehill’s 7207 passing yards --- albeit in a passer-friendly league --- are the fifth-most in NFL history by a quarterback in his first two seasons, behind Luck, Cam Newton, Peyton Manning and Dan Marino (7294).
Where has Tannehill improved most? “He’s seeing his reads a lot faster than last year,” receiver Mike Wallace said. “And his confidence in the pocket has improved.”
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