I think Flores should have a meeting with the brass and determine whether his performance has impressed them enough for them all to agree that the remaining games won’t serve that purpose, and that losing them would be best for all concerned.

If you can get that sort of agreement among them, then obviously starting Rosen becomes the key ingredient in that strategy.

 

You may have seen this already but Flores declared that Fitz will be the starter next week... although I suppose that could change this week.

 

I hope we NEVER give Rosen a 2nd look unless it's deliberately to lose a game (which incidentally is the topic here lol). The rarity of being the only starting QB we know of whose first 16 games were all below average statistically should be a massive red flag. I've said before I can't say with absolutely certainty there has been no other starting QB with that stat because I don't have all starters in my database, but I have almost all since 1978, and not even Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell did that.

Our QB situation next year should be whoever we pick in the draft (probably Tua if Burrows is out of reach.. though there is still technically a way for us to luck into the #1 pick) and Fitz who is an excellent backup QB. Rosen should be cut or (if lucky) traded.

 

This is one of those times when I don't believe stats tell the real story. I went back a few months ago and watched every Rosen throw from his rookie year...he was constantly under pressure, his receivers weren't dependable and that team just generally stunk. I think we do end up with Tua but I also believe that he shouldn't play next season due to his injury. And if we roll with Fitz, I have absolutely no problem with that since he's such a stand-up guy.

Rosen deserves a real chance in the NFL though and I genuinely hope it's with the Dolphins. I'm personally tired of seeing our players go off and have great careers elsewhere because statistically they weren't good enough. Tannehill is the perfect example- below average with Gase's Dolphins and elite with Tennessee...does anyone really think it's the scenery or the air quality in Tennessee that's causing the difference? It's clearly the coaching and the surrounding cast. We tanked this season to completely overhaul that surrounding cast, so it would be ridiculous not to audition Rosen with some legitimate protection and talent around him.

 

Rosen against the Bengals sounds like a good plan to me.

 

I'd like to see if Rosen shows any progress in an actual game. He'll be around as the #2 QB in 2020, backing up Fitzmagic, unless we end up with Burrow, then Fitzmagic is the #2 (after starting the first month or so) and Rosen gets traded for a late pick.

If Tua is drafted you have to sit him most of the year, maybe he could play some games in December 2020, but that would be the soonest given his injury. He has to be completely healed with excellent conditioning and a good handle on the plays and at-the-line calls.

 

I mentioned this in another thread but your post warrants it’s repeating. If this is indeed the case, why in Gods name would I as a college star want to come play for a pathetically weak team? You’re losing on purpose? Bunk that, I’ll play elsewhere

 

I would like to see Rosen start the last 2 games if for nothing else to see if he has any trade value. After that Giants mess how much worse could it get?

 

No point. Rosen will be with the team in 2020 for camp. He'll start fresh with a better roster.

 

I think we'll see Fitz for the rest of the year. Remember....the idea is to tank while making it look like the idea of actually "tanking" is just the most hilariously absurd, preposterous, harebrained idea a person could ever even imagine! Like..."HOW DARE YOU ACCUSE USSSS OF TANKING!" I can see it now, Brian Flores at the podium pumping his fist while making a thunderous speech about how we will always try to win at all costs! Meanwhile in the back room, Grier is rolling his eyes and emphatically nodding his head while Ross sits there and looks confused. We get it Brian....We're not tanking "wink" "wink". The whole claim is stale at this point....Just start Rose and lose these last two games for crying out loud! Our future and potential draft status desperately depends on it in my opinion. It's a must that we get a crack at one of the top three guys in this draft! Burrow, Young, or Tua...Has to happen. TANK.

Oh and one more thing......I love how they're like "oh, we're protecting Rosen by not playing him." Actually....NO....Rosen is just flat out awful and had we stuck with him as our QB this team would have been historically horrific, and would have probably gone down as the absolute worst team in all of sports since the history of sporting events. To avoid being a flaming laughing stock of the universe and a cemented in time punchline....We started Fitz....and won a couple games. So you people that are championing another look at Rosen just for good ole evaluation sake....I see what you're really wanting. I see you.

 

Not sure if serious...

If serious...that's all complete speculation.

 

I can get behind starting him for one more look, but not as an effort to just help the draft position. We have survived the season and played hard. If Rosen can't come in and make plays and keep the team playing hard then keep him on the sidelines.

 

I respect your point of view, but I think we should be very wary of angling toward being in the position of thinking we can get another quarterback the surroundings he needs to be successful. As you probably realize, I’m not entirely sold that whatever is responsible for Tannehill’s recent performance is sustainable.

 

Why? I didn’t see anything out of him that showed me he’s ready when he did play. There’s a pretty wide gap between level of play and results with Fitz and Rosen. If Flores hasn’t either, then I’ll trust our HC

 

Here's my argument. Who cares? They're 3-11.

 

We need an offensive line regardless, and if that's not in the plan then it really doesn't make sense to draft any QB ever again.

Your argument about Tannehill is basically a moot point by now- he went from #22 overall last season (playing hurt) to #1 this year. Maybe he does regress next season and he's the #5 or even the #9 QB...that's still good enough for a SB win with the right pieces around you. But for now, he's the best in the league....better than Wilson. Better than Rodgers. Better than Brady, Jackson, etc. How often is the top passer in the league just a one-year fluke?

 

That's fair.

My personal opinion is that there should be a -fair- competition with whoever we draft this year.

If he is truly as bad as statistics suggest, the new rookie should be able to beat him out handily. If not, that either says the rookie isnt good enough, isnt ready, or Rosen was prematurely judged.

 

Tannehill isn't #1 right now, Brees is #1 after breaking the all-time TD record yesterday (beating out Peyton Manning).
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm

To answer your question though, a "fluke" #1 ranked starting QB happens maybe about once every 6 years or so. Recent examples: Nick Foles in 2013, Steve McNair in 2003, and Brian Griese in 2000.

 

Griese is the flukey-est fluke in the history of flukes lol

At least with Foles and McNair they had strengths you can imagine being exploited to produce numbers in the right system.

I have no idea how Brian Griese did it.

 

What that demonstrates in each case is that average or even below-average quarterbacks can perform well if the stars align, and that when the stars align for them, they likely won’t remain aligned for long.

And that is exactly what’s left to be determined with Tannehill, which we will know only with more time and data.

Regardless of Tannehill however, this demonstrates that the strategy should be to obtain an elite quarterback if possible, and not to try to surround an average one with the variables necessary for him to perform at that level. This is precisely why Arizona jettisoned Rosen for Murray after only 13 games.

 

Him and Tommy Kramer who somehow beat out Marino by 0.1 passer rating points to be #1 in 1986:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1986/passing.htm

 

CBrad showed one QB in the last 15 years that applied to (Nick Foles), who took his team on several deep playoff runs and won a Super Bowl. Even if that is a "fluke", I'd gladly take it in Miami or Tennessee.

Your actual post though is rubbish...it demonstrates nothing. One SB-winning QB who was traded to a trash team demonstrates Tannehill has to prove himself to show this season was legit? Sorry, not buying that when 14 of the last 15 #1 rated QB's ended up being legit...there's a 93.3% chance his production is real (if you want to try and twist cBrad's post into an argument that he'll regress).

It's happened 6.7% of the time over the past 15 years and again- the ONLY example is wearing a SB ring and was named SB MVP. I don't think that's anyone's definition of a bad player.

 

How do you know Tannehill will follow a different path than Brian Griese did after the year 2000? In terms of their career trajectories, how do you know this season for Tannehill isn’t similar to the one Andy Dalton experienced in 2015?

I don’t know the answer to either one of those questions, but it sounds like you feel like you do.

 

I think the problem is that none of us know. We are all just using our best intuition to determine what the future holds.

Until Tannehill has been consistently great there will always be people who doubt him when he has a bad game. There will also be people who attribute every bad game to his cast, pointing out how great this stretch has been.

I think I'm starting to agree with Bumrush that this horse has been beaten to death and we just keep clubbing.

Edit: Wrong thread oops lol

 

If nothing matters, why is it important to see the backup QB?

 

Well past time to give Rosen a real look. They botched this fitz gave us 2 wins! Wow yippie yahoo! Josh needed a real fair look and a chance to grow with this team if they were serious about keeping him. Now he’s going to be given another shot in training camp but he’s lost valuable time IMHO.

we also dropped to third place currently for a QB and rumors now that Washington might jump to 2 to grab one. I don’t want TUA he’s not going to be long for the NFL 2 years to injuries and welcome to the NFL he’s undersized and that hips going to be an issue

 

Uh, because he's 22 and not 38.

 

Plus it matters if you're concerned with draft number.

 

He also posted an abysmal QBR and didn’t show anything that would lead anyone to believe he’s ready. What do you think has changed in 2 months?

 

Again, who cares? They're 3-11. Great, Fitzpatrick proved he can still win a game or two in this league. I don't care if his feelings get hurt. He has no future here. He got Devante Parker a contract and made Gesicki not look like a total doofus out there.

Rosen seems like he doesn't either, but it's way more beneficial to give him another shot these last two games. They did invest a high draft pick on him. If he plays great he deserves a shot at the job next year. If he stinks they cut bait with him and finish 3-13.

 

I honestly believe in today's NFL a true pocket passer needs to sit until he learns to read an NFL defense efficiently.

Immediate productivity is more likely for a dual threat QB who can make plays when everything breaks down.

If a pocket passer cant trust his pre snap read along with identifying what happens after the snap quickly he is going to look bad.

I honestly DO want to see Rosen again but only when he is comfortable in the offense and with NFL defenses. I'm leaning towards drafting someone like Hurts and having a truly unbiased competition to start next season.

 

Well with what Lamar Jackson is doing to help the Ravens be so dominant, I think you can start to entertain the argument that pocket passers may soon be an anachronism, especially if the modal one requires so much time to become successful.

 

I'm honestly still not convinced Jackson will sustain his play.

I basically compare him to a one man version of the Wildcat currently, defenses arent sure how to defend him yet.

Once they are able to shut his legs down his arm wont be half as dangerous.

If he sustains this level of play into next year I'll have some crow to eat.

 

But just think how successful the Wildcat could be if the player getting the snap could pass the ball as well as Jackson?

 

Well I'm not saying he wont continue to be greatly successful. Much like your view on Tannehill I just want to see it sustained.

Hes had an incredible season, I'm just curious how he will play if teams can limit his legs. If he can he make it so that is impossible or show he can succeed without having to run all the time I'll have to accept hes legit.

I'm not trying fight reality after all.

 

Wasn't Alex Smith the top rated QB a few years ago before he was traded?

 

Even if they can limit his legs his arm has improved tenfold over last year.

Jackson has a heck of an arm. NFL MVP IMO.

 

Yup.. Smith was #1 in 2017. However, I left guys like him out because you could argue it wasn't a "fluke" when he had a 2nd year (2012) where he played really well. In terms of z-scores, 2017 for Alex Smith was 1.8 while it was 1.61 in 2012.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03.htm

Similarly with Pennington who was #1 in 2002 (z-score = 2.54) but did really well in 2008 where he came in #2 with a z-score = 1.4.

So the ones I listed are ones where there was only 1 year like that.