When it comes to Week 14’s Monday game, the Dolphins will be in the spotlight as they host the Tennessee Titans (+13). A game that the oddsmakers do not seem to think will be close
on Sunday while the Titans fell to 4-8 with an overtime loss to the Indianapolis Colts (-1).
Miami is looking more and more like a threat to make a deep run in the playoffs this year, with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the conversation for league MVP. The Titans are struggling, but they are also getting rookie quarterback Will Levis the experience he needs this year to continue to grow and develop into a potential franchise quarterback.
With the two teams headed in seemingly opposite directions this year, the oddsmakers installed Miami as big favorites to open the week’s betting lines. According to the DraftKings Sportsbook opening lines the Dolphins were initially 12.5-point favorites for the game. The line increased to 13 points by Monday morning, and could continue to grow as Titans star running back Derrick Henry is dealing with a head injury from Sunday’s loss to the Colts. The moneyline has Miami listed at -800 and the Titans at +550.
The point total for the game is 47 combined points.
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If Jeffery Simmons is out, then Miami can run all over them. This game will not be close.
dolphin25 likes this. -
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Spread is now at -13.5. Together with a 47 total points that's predicting a 30-17 or 31-17 final outcome, which is realistic (those are very common final scores). If I had to I'd bet on total points being higher and Miami covering the spread. The 17 given up seems reasonable but I think it's more likely we put up more than 30 and beat them by 14+.
Not actually betting of course, but this offense is really good against (most) weaker teams. -
Looking at the defensive stats for the Titans is confusing me. They are one of the best rush defences in the league at 3.6ypc but their pass defence is pretty terrible, it’s near the bottom in rating given up, ypa, adjusted ypa etc but they have only given up 14 pass TD’s and are mid table for points against. I would have expected them to have given up more points based on that pass defence.
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Yeah I think that's probably more on the right track.
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Two years ago, we went into Tennessee with a 5-game win streak on a win-or-go-home final stretch to the season. Tua was on a rip in his second season and they shut him and the team down. I'm okay with believing we should win but I'm not going to presume it's time to start game planning for next week until the game's been played.
dolphin25 likes this. -
Back then Tennessee was the best team in the AFC, this year they're the 2nd worst. We're not only going 10-3 we're going 11-3. The big question mark this year is how this team will play the final three games against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. Yeah I'm looking ahead. In fact, I'm more interested in whether KC, Ravens, Jags can lose a few during that time.KeyFin likes this.
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Looks like Tennessee is ranked 7th in 1st half points allowed (9.4) but ranked 22nd in 2nd half points allowed (11.3), so this hypothesis doesn't work. Note that those two averages add up to 20.7 which is less than overall points allowed per game (21.3) because of two OT games.KeyFin likes this.
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Fresh off a stress-free 45-15 victory over the Commanders, the Dolphins have taken hold of the AFC East, sitting as the overwhelming favorites to win the division for the first time since 2008.
Meanwhile, the Titans suffered their fourth-straight loss last week, surrendering a 10-point lead thanks to several special teams miscues. Although the winner of Monday night's matchup seems rather straightforward, the point spread is always the great equalizer, which makes picking the ATS winner a challenging task.
With the Dolphins owning a +117 scoring margin (32.9 ppg) in their eight wins over sub-.500 foes, a nearly two-touchdown spread in favor of the home team is justified. Being 13.5-point favorites isn't exactly uncharted waters for Mike McDaniel's squad this year, as Monday night marks the fourth time this year Miami has been at least a 13-point home favorite.
The Dolphins are 2-1 ATS in those contests, covering against the Giants (-13; 31-16) and Panthers (-14; 42-21), with their lone non-cover coming in their last home game against the Raiders (-14; 20-13).
Conversely, Monday night marks the first time the Titans are double-digit underdogs this season, with their previous highest spread coming in their Week 11 road matchup in Jacksonville (+6.5; 14-34). Will a Tennessee defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency be able to generate enough stops to stay within the 13.5-point spread?
With Miami averaging nearly 40 points per game in their eight wins against sub-.500 opponents, getting to 47 total points between both squads appears to be an attainable task. OVER bettors likely need 14-17 points from the Titans. Although Tennessee's offense has had its struggles, especially along the offensive line, they've averaged 18.2 points per game since Will Levis took over as the starting QB.
The Titans' 22nd-ranked pass defense just allowed two Colts' WRs, Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce, to post 100-plus receiving yards while letting Colts QB Gardner Minshew throw for 312 yards with two TDs in Week 13. Miami's elite receiving tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have to be licking their proverbial chops facing one of the league's least efficient coverage units.
To make matters worse, the Titans' front seven struggles to generate pressure, ranking 26th in pressure rate (19.4 percent). That doesn't bode well against a Dolphins offensive line that kept Tua Tagovailoa squeaky clean in Week 13, as Tagovailoa was neither sacked nor pressured. A high percentage of clean pockets for Tagovailoa spells trouble for the Titans' prospects of staying within the number.
That said, on the other side of the ball, Tennessee's ground game could have an efficient day. Although star running back Derrick Henry left this past Sunday's matchup with a head injury, he wasn't placed in the league's concussion protocol, all but confirming his availability for MNF.
While the Dolphins' pass defense just held Sam Howell, the league's passing leader, to 127 yards with a lackluster 50.5 passer rating, Miami was gashed on the ground (138 yards, 4.9 YPC, two TDs). Relying on Henry and fellow RB Tyaje Spears, who's fresh off his best rushing game as a pro (16 carries, 75 yards), could help Tennessee methodically move the ball on Miami's defense. However, even if Tennessee can put together a strong rushing output, it won't matter much if they're playing from behind and have to resort to airing things out.
Miami's high-octane offense leads us to lean toward the OVER 46.5 (-110). We think Levis and company can put up 17-plus points, a number they've reached in three of six games since Levis took over QB1 duties. They'll figure to have plenty of opportunities to generate some scoring drives in garbage time, and Miami's quick-strike offense is always a plus for OVER backers. -
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So Derrick Henry didn't enter concussion protocols this week and is already practicing and will likely play this week. Where is the media outcry after him taking this hit last week and obviously getting knocked out on the play. Helmet to helmet then head to ground.
resnor, KeyFin, Pennington's Limp Arm and 2 others like this. -
On a somewhat related note, I love how Tua is proving to be more durable this season than so many QBs that are out for the season due to injury:
- Aaron Rodgers
- Deshaun Watson
- Joe Burrow
- Kirk Cousins
- Daniel Jones
- Anthony Richardson
lol.. and now we're waiting to see how much Lawrence's injury affects the Jags playoff chances (Jags are only one game ahead of Indy and Houston in their division). -
Maybe I'm wrong but I thought last year they changed the rules mid season in regards to concussions because of what happened to Tua in Cincy. Specifically in game if a player displayed any symptoms of a concussion they were to be taken out for the game. Last week Josh Allen went into the tent to be evaluated for a concussion and came right back in the game. The league is all talk in regards to player safety.KeyFin, Fishhead, JJ_79 and 1 other person like this.
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Like the Commanders defense last week…. This Titans team is terrible against the pass.
Sets us up for another air show. Bombs away. Dolphins (-13.5) and the points!dolphin25 likes this. -
I believe Chris Olave has already had 3 documented concussions (2 this year for sure).
He went through the protocols and played last week without missing a game.
Thing was New Orleans was already missing Michael Thomas and Shaheed. So they really needed Olave to field atleast one NFL quality reciever. Have to wonder if that played a factor.Springveldt likes this. -
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Head coach Mike Vrabel said later in the day that Henry had not been cleared to return before the end of the game by medical personnel, but that he was actually not placed in the concussion protocol. On Thursday, Henry said he “got my bell rung a little bit” but feels good now and felt well enough to return against the Colts as well.
KeyFin likes this. -
It's a game we should win. This is not the same Titan team that spanked us a couple years ago and we are not the same Brian Flores coached Miami team. We got this. Of course it won't be handed to us, but we're on a roll this year.
dolphin25 likes this. -
Just happened to find it. I was laughing my a$$ off when I posted it. I hope Brad takes the humor in it.KeyFin likes this.
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I'm not sure why you would show this play and compare it to Tua. What freaked everyone out was Tua having the "fencing response."
It does seem incredibly unlikely that Henry wasn't concussed on that play. -
It shows NE isn't dead yet, which is good for us. They play KC, Denver and Bills next. Might as well have slightly more credible competition than a sure win for those 3 teams.Tuanon4Life and KeyFin like this.
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It's still a sure win. Pittsburgh just sucks that bad. -
Let next year take care of next year. I'm worried about this season.
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