Understanding where everyone is at with Herbert

"tirty8 wrote:

It cracks me up that this is a post about "what cloth Herbert is cut from" and everyone but Rafael resorted back to giving a scouting report but not naming a comparable prospect.

I'm not trying to be difficult or picky. Just give me one.

Rafael said Tannehill and gave me a detailed explanation of why he sees him in that light. I can now clearly see where he's coming from.

To be fair I said similar to Roethlisberger in physical ability but slightly different in play.

Alex

I am not saying Herbert is Lazy, or Stupid, or incapable of leading. I am just pointing out that no Qb in this draft works harder, has overcome more or is a better leader than Hurts.

Hurts led Bama to a national championship. Hurts gets replaced by Tua... He does not get mad or upset... He went to the coaches and asked to work on his throwing motion and arm strength... When Tua got hurt in the playoffs Hurts came in off the bench and won them a playoff game. Selfless...

All of the coaches and players on Bama regarded Hurts as the hardest working player on the team... The top football program in the nation ( arguably )... Practice field, film room, weight room... Even Tua has spoke about how amazing Hurts is.

So Hurts gets a chance to go to Oklahoma... and he blows the coaches there away... They did not know his arm was that good....They did not have to change the air raid offense for Hurts...

Hurts learns a new offense... He starts throwing the ball down the field airing it out... With incredible results... He was a top 3 college QB last year....

All of the while he led in the weight room and film room... Players marvelled watching Hurts squat 600 pounds... out lifting linemen...

He took the Sooners to the playoffs and was within a game of the national championship... Losing to the eventual national champions. And in that game a couple of perfectly thrown footballs were dropped for easy touchdowns... On paper it looks like a rout... But the game was really much closer.... And even against the best college team in maybe the last decade... Hurts still put points on the board.

I want to bring something else up also

Tua could not beat LSU... They made him look normal
Lawrence could not beat LSU...They made him look normal.

But when Hurts lost to LSU There was this commentary that he was exposed and overrated... ( Just incredible. )

Let's look at what Hurts did at Oklahoma.

70% pass completion QB rating of 191 5147 total yards... and 52 touchdowns with 8 picks.

Now you might say... Yeah but that offense is a gimmick.... No it is not... The air raid offense is a pro friendly offense and is a variation of the standard west coast offense that most NFL teams run. This is not Tim Tebow out there running a gimmick offense that is not adaptable to the NFL

Let's look at the last 2 record breaking QB's to play in that offense in Oklahoma

1. Baker Mayfield
2. Kyler Murray

Hurts beat Mayfield's touchdown total as a senior... bested his yard total... Threw for more yards per pass also. Hurts threw for 11.3 yards per pass... So no dinking and dunking.. He was looking down the field.

Okay onto Murray

Murray had a better senior season ever so slightly... The numbers are insane.

Murray 54 total touchdowns Hurts 52
Murray 5352 total yards Hurts 5147
Murray 11.6 Yards per pass Hurts 11.3
Murray and Hurts both completed 69% of their passes... Hurts was half a point higher
Murray QB rating of 199 Hurts 191

Murray and Mayfield were both first overall draft picks. Before Hurts went to the combine and blew people away by matching Herbert throw for throw... The talk was that Hurts was nothing more than a 5th round pick.

Hurts is 5 inches taller than Murray and a lot stronger. Hurts is a couple of inches taller than Mayfield and hell of a lot faster. ( Nothing but speculation with Murray and his 40... There was a report that he ran an unofficial 4.38 in college... But he has never been officially timed... ) Hurts ran a 4.47 in college So still very fast.

It is more than just the fact that he has won in college... It was about how he won. Perfect teammate... Leader on and off the field... He was willing to put the work in to improve his mechanics.. to get stronger... To increase his velocity ... and accuracy on his throws... He was willing to leave Bama... and learn a completely new offense.

The proof is on the field... He is a fundamentally different QB now than he was when he was at Bama... Lots of QB's try to get stronger and improve their throwing motion.... 99% fail.

Tim Tebow tried several times to improve his throwing motion... He could not do it... Look at how hard he worked... Look at the leader he was... Hurts has done what Tebow could not. Hurts now throws the ball with authority down the field with accuracy.

With Hurts you have the coaches saying the kid is special that he works like no other. You have the players saying he is special and that he works like no other... and then you have the numbers he put up and the fact that he changed the type of QB he was from a run first and throw conservative to one that passes first and is to throw the ball down the field and attack a defense.

With Herbert we did not see any such progression or transformation Herbert did not win big games in college... He was not that kind of leader. It is not that he is a bad person or lazy.... Nobody has raved that Herbert is a gym rat... or lives in the weight room... or takes game film home with him at night.

I googled Herbert and work ethic and I read several articles that stated his work ethic was solid... That stated he had a positive attitude... So I am not in any way shape or form trying to knock the guy by saying he is lazy or a head case...

One thing that does bother me with Herbert is that he has this arm and that great size... and I did not see much improvement in him as a starter in college. He did not dominate... The numbers are good... Not great. And Herbert has never had to beat anyone and be the man to win the big game. Being a leader means you step up and perform at a high level when it matters. Herbert has never done that... Not yet.

If it was just about getting out a tape measure, a stop watch and set of weights... Yeah Herbert is the QB you draft first.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

Herbert is my #1 QB on the board in this draft and the only one I dont have massive questions about.

At the NFL level I think he could have a career similar to Roethlisberger on the field. The major difference being that Herbert has better short accuracy IMO similar intermediate accuracy and perhaps a tad worse deep accuracy but an equal arm.

He should be someone at this level that can avoid sacks and make plays with his legs when it's necessary.

His weaknesses are ones that can be improved and his strengths are ones that IMO you cant teach.

His career line is college is really good. He had one subpar season, last year, where he probably would have been a top 10 pick anyway despite that.

Hes produced exactly how I would expect him to based on the talent around him. Put him on LSU or Alabama and hes the one throwing 45-60 TD passes.

Big Ben is who I was thinking of too based on his size and arm more than anything else.

Herbert is a lot slimmer than Roethliberger ever was though, including in college. Herbert is built more like an athletic version of Joe Flacco.

"Etrius24 wrote:

Alex

I am not saying Herbert is Lazy, or Stupid, or incapable of leading. I am just pointing out that no Qb in this draft works harder, has overcome more or is a better leader than Hurts.

Hurts led Bama to a national championship. Hurts gets replaced by Tua... He does not get mad or upset... He went to the coaches and asked to work on his throwing motion and arm strength... When Tua got hurt in the playoffs Hurts came in off the bench and won them a playoff game. Selfless...

All of the coaches and players on Bama regarded Hurts as the hardest working player on the team... The top football program in the nation ( arguably )... Practice field, film room, weight room... Even Tua has spoke about how amazing Hurts is.

So Hurts gets a chance to go to Oklahoma... and he blows the coaches there away... They did not know his arm was that good....They did not have to change the air raid offense for Hurts...

Hurts learns a new offense... He starts throwing the ball down the field airing it out... With incredible results... He was a top 3 college QB last year....

All of the while he led in the weight room and film room... Players marvelled watching Hurts squat 600 pounds... out lifting linemen...

He took the Sooners to the playoffs and was within a game of the national championship... Losing to the eventual national champions. And in that game a couple of perfectly thrown footballs were dropped for easy touchdowns... On paper it looks like a rout... But the game was really much closer.... And even against the best college team in maybe the last decade... Hurts still put points on the board.

I want to bring something else up also

Tua could not beat LSU... They made him look normal
Lawrence could not beat LSU...They made him look normal.

But when Hurts lost to LSU There was this commentary that he was exposed and overrated... ( Just incredible. )

Let's look at what Hurts did at Oklahoma.

70% pass completion QB rating of 191 5147 total yards... and 52 touchdowns with 8 picks.

Now you might say... Yeah but that offense is a gimmick.... No it is not... The air raid offense is a pro friendly offense and is a variation of the standard west coast offense that most NFL teams run. This is not Tim Tebow out there running a gimmick offense that is not adaptable to the NFL

Let's look at the last 2 record breaking QB's to play in that offense in Oklahoma

1. Baker Mayfield
2. Kyler Murray

Hurts beat Mayfield's touchdown total as a senior... bested his yard total... Threw for more yards per pass also. Hurts threw for 11.3 yards per pass... So no dinking and dunking.. He was looking down the field.

Okay onto Murray

Murray had a better senior season ever so slightly... The numbers are insane.

Murray 54 total touchdowns Hurts 52
Murray 5352 total yards Hurts 5147
Murray 11.6 Yards per pass Hurts 11.3
Murray and Hurts both completed 69% of their passes... Hurts was half a point higher
Murray QB rating of 199 Hurts 191

Murray and Mayfield were both first overall draft picks. Before Hurts went to the combine and blew people away by matching Herbert throw for throw... The talk was that Hurts was nothing more than a 5th round pick.

Hurts is 5 inches taller than Murray and a lot stronger. Hurts is a couple of inches taller than Mayfield and hell of a lot faster. ( Nothing but speculation with Murray and his 40... There was a report that he ran an unofficial 4.38 in college... But he has never been officially timed... ) Hurts ran a 4.47 in college So still very fast.

It is more than just the fact that he has won in college... It was about how he won. Perfect teammate... Leader on and off the field... He was willing to put the work in to improve his mechanics.. to get stronger... To increase his velocity ... and accuracy on his throws... He was willing to leave Bama... and learn a completely new offense.

The proof is on the field... He is a fundamentally different QB now than he was when he was at Bama... Lots of QB's try to get stronger and improve their throwing motion.... 99% fail.

Tim Tebow tried several times to improve his throwing motion... He could not do it... Look at how hard he worked... Look at the leader he was... Hurts has done what Tebow could not. Hurts now throws the ball with authority down the field with accuracy.

With Hurts you have the coaches saying the kid is special that he works like no other. You have the players saying he is special and that he works like no other... and then you have the numbers he put up and the fact that he changed the type of QB he was from a run first and throw conservative to one that passes first and is to throw the ball down the field and attack a defense.

With Herbert we did not see any such progression or transformation Herbert did not win big games in college... He was not that kind of leader. It is not that he is a bad person or lazy.... Nobody has raved that Herbert is a gym rat... or lives in the weight room... or takes game film home with him at night.

I googled Herbert and work ethic and I read several articles that stated his work ethic was solid... That stated he had a positive attitude... So I am not in any way shape or form trying to knock the guy by saying he is lazy or a head case...

One thing that does bother me with Herbert is that he has this arm and that great size... and I did not see much improvement in him as a starter in college. He did not dominate... The numbers are good... Not great. And Herbert has never had to beat anyone and be the man to win the big game. Being a leader means you step up and perform at a high level when it matters. Herbert has never done that... Not yet.

If it was just about getting out a tape measure, a stop watch and set of weights... Yeah Herbert is the QB you draft first.

Like I said, you dont have to convince me on Hurts. I like him too. You can also say it another way though.

Hurts lost his job but was a strong enough player another top school was interested. It's not all that rare, there are a lot of transfers these days and it was never something to overcome or be ashamed of. Everyone knew he would be a starter somewhere.

I like him as a player like I said, but I wouldnt say hes overcome some insurmountable circumstance to get here. He was a top QB at a top program, it's not surprising hed end up on another high profile team.

I wouldn't just be disappointed if we drafted Hurts.

I'd be disgusted.

"KeyFin wrote:

Yup, I got the same feel when researching him. I wouldn't hate it if we draft the kid, but if we're going to grab someone that fits the Tannehill mold almost exactly, then that makes me question this entire organization for letting Tannehill walk a year ago. I see the exact same pros/cons but at the same time, Tannehill is an NFL veteran that we know can play at NFL speed, complete passes at high percentages and generally play error-free football in the passing game. We can't say the same thing about Herbert or any rookie....they're still unknowns.

For me Herbert would be a hard pass...but again, I'll support him if we do end up drafting him. It's not like I dislike his game or anything else about him- the kid's a solid player. But his struggles in the pocket under pressure makes me think that we've all already watched that movie and most of you HATED IT.

I think we also need to consider that this is a new organization in terms of coaches and players. Grier is the carry over and so far it looks like he knows what he is doing in terms of VP and GM, based on getting our cap under control in one year and simultaneously setting us up for almost twice as many draft picks for the next two years. This draft should eliminate any question as to his drafting abilities.

Let them run with whoever they want for QB and if they want to test the water with a lot of them before Fitz runs out of steam, they should!

So, what are some of ya'll saying? Hold at #5 and if Tua isn't there wait and grab Hurts in round 2?

P.S. Not asking Alex or Unlucky. I know Alex wants Herbert, and Unlucky will be pissed if we take Hurts. :-)

Alex

It is not extraordinary that a QB transfers... absolutely correct. What is extraordinary is asking that QB to change systems completely and to re-invent himself.... And then to have the QB grow and develop to be able to pull it off.

Mayfield did not have to change his approach at all transferring to Oklahoma... He was running something close to the same type of offense at Texas Tech. This is one reason why I see the change and success of Hurts to be noteworthy. For hurts to pull it off he had to grow physically and mentally. He had to read defenses... make more than one look... Balance when to run and when to throw. ( Something the NFL is transitioning to with all of these dual-threat QB's coming into the league. )

Hurts proved he could be a pass-first QB that pushed the ball downfield.

Surfs

If it was me.... Yeah Refuse to trade up for Tua... If he is there at 5.... Take him.

If he is gone... Draft Simmons Then Kinlaw or McKinney at 18 and Mims at 26

Second round you have to look at a Offensive lineman and a safety if you do not get one in the first round. Wanogho and Delpit ( If you get lucky )

Third round grab Hurts... and if Cushenberry is there in the second half of round 3... trade up and snag him... ( Really bolstering the offensive line. )

Round 4... gotta grab a RB.... Dillon

So here is a hypothetical

5. Simmons
18 Kinlaw
26 Mims
39 Delpit
56 Wanogho
70 Hurts
??? Cushenberry
141 Dillon

This gives Miami the pieces to build TOP 3 defense in the NFL It adds two studs to the offensive line.... It adds an elite #1 wide receiver... and a 250 pound running back with speed and power.

Roll with Fitzmagic this year and win 10 games make the playoffs... Continue to coach up Rosen and Hurts... Next year let Hurts and Rosen fight for the starting job.

If Tua is there at 5 and we take Tua...

5. Tua
18. Kinlaw
26. Mims
39. Delpit
56. Wanogho
70. Cushenberry
??? Duvarney
141. Dillon

I am still all for using the handful of picks we have after the 4th round to trade back into the end of the 3rd or at the start of the 4th round to grab a player we identify as filling a need like Duvarney and or Hurts... depending on how the draft shakes out.

Drafting Duvarney at the end of the third round means Gator and Wilson can be cut and we trim 10 million off of our cap space...

We roll with

Mims
Parker
Williams
Duvarney

That is as much talent at wide receiver as any team in the NFL... And if we are going to draft Tua... We better take advantage of this being a deep draft for wide receivers.

"Surfs Up 99 wrote:

So, what are some of ya'll saying? Hold at #5 and if Tua isn't there wait and grab Hurts in round 2?

P.S. Not asking Alex or Unlucky. I know Alex wants Herbert, and Unlucky will be pissed if we take Hurts. :-)

You have FIVE groups of fans here-

Group #1 wants Tua at all costs (possibly trading 1-2 additional picks to move up).
Group #2 wants Tua or Herbert at #5 (trade nothing, get who's there at 5).
Group #3 wants Burrow at #1 overall (trade 2-3 first rounders plus other picks/players).
Group #4 wants the best player available throughout the 1st round and take Hurts early 2nd.
Group #5 wants to trade out of the #5 pick, build value and grab even more blue chip players on the first two days of the draft (or possibly in next year's draft).

Groups #1-3 are all in....that's their guy and we should plan on starting him ASAP.

Group #4 is a little different though because we're not expecting Hurts to play year one. Since we're not wasting that #5 overall pick on a QB, group #4 is also okay if Rosen turns out to be the guy...let him start late 2020 and it doesn't matter. Hurts said he'd play QB, RB, TE, WR or anything the team needs, so he has a lot more potential to not be a bust than any of the QB's named. And if it takes a few seasons with him only playing Wildcat downs, he's good with that.

And group #5...I can completely understand that logic as well since it's the same path as #4 with a few extra picks thrown in. If someone really wants Tua/Herbert and will pay dearly to pick #5, it's hard to argue with that logic unless you believe that we have to have our franchise QB immediately. They may or may not take someone like Hurts with the extra 2nd/3rd we acquire (which is eerily similar to the Rosen scenario!)

There's no right or wrong answer here...we all have opinions and we rank risks differently. For instance, I'm terrified Tua will get hurt again...others say that's dumb...and that's okay. We can't know what we don't know. To me personally though, Hurts is the safest pick since he could convert to a fantastic slot receiver or eventually turn into another Lamar Jackson. He has multiple paths to make this roster as a 2nd round pick and I personally like safe. He's dynamic as can be though as well...you will enjoy watching him play.

Burrow, Tua and Herbert will all cost more and therefore have more risk involved, but I won't be upset regardless of who we pick. At this point I trust our front office to get the right player for this offense. Personally though, I'm in group #4 or 5 with us grabbing Hurts in the 2nd or 3rd.

I'm not in any of your groups, Key! I want to trade down, no matter who is there at 5. And I wouldn't draft Hurts in the 7th round.

I'm definitely group #2, albeit leaning towards Tua.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I'm not in any of your groups, Key! I want to trade down, no matter who is there at 5. And I wouldn't draft Hurts in the 7th round.

LOL, so you don't want a QB at all? Or are you hoping to trade back a few spots and land Herbert/Love at a lower pick? Either way, I edited my post for you and presented the "group #5" argument.

I like Herbert, he seems like he's a tough SOB, but I don't know. I'd still probably take Tua over him if we end up having to choose between the two of them. I'm not going to be mad at all though if Herbert ends up being our pick. I like him quite a bit, I know we were super high on him last year, I know we have scouted him, I know this organization has had their eye on him. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we drafted him.

I think at this point...Last year...and going into the fall of 2019, Tua was the clear cut number one pick for the 2020 draft and had the hip injury not happened, he may never have given up that crown. So....ignoring the injury and rolling the dice with the situation, I would snatch Tua up at five if he's there over Herbert. That's where i'm at with it right now, but again...I'm not going to be upset in the slightest if we end up drafting Herbert. I may raise an eyebrow if we draft him and Tua is still available, but again, i'll get over it quickly.

If we do in fact take a quarterback this coming draft, the debates are going to rage on for quite some time in regards to who we should have picked, and why we picked who we picked. I expect a lot of knee jerk reactions after the very first games of the year are played (if some of these rookie QB's are opening day starters). It's going to be interesting, it's going to be fun. I'm team Burrow, team Tua, and team Herbert all the way. Hell i'm team Love and Hurts as of right now too. Any one of those five are going to excite me. I just don't want us reaching or getting "cute" with the pick.
1. Burrow
2. Tua
2A Herbert
3. Hurts
4. Love
That's my personal order as far as rankings go.

I also am in Group 2 - except I want Herbert. I fear that Tua is an accident waiting for the other party to arrive at the scene, as in one of the nastier CB or LB on the opposing team when he gets out of the pocket.

It's clear where I'm at on Herbert. I don't think the Tanne comparison is a good one. That's not a knock on Tanne nor anyone making the comparison. I just don't think it's an accurate comparison, but I understand why it's made by some people. However, I won't get into why I feel It's inaccurate because Tanne is like crack on this board and it's best to put that pipe down for a bit.

I do think that Herbert will end up being the best of this QB class. I think he has the highest ceiling.

Tannehill was a fantastic athlete... Herbert could not start at wide receiver

Using data from PFF's draft guide I did a quick table on their grades. I realize some people don't put much stock in their analysis, but it might be interesting to see how the QB's compare, in their view.

Since we are talking about Hurts, if you look at the average grades, he ranks #2 behind Burrow. Why then is he ranked #10 in their guide? One reason might be is the following:

Hurts' slow decision making throughout his career is terrifying when projecting to the NFL. He's played behind some of the best offensive line situations in college football and when that's not the case in the NFL, things could get ugly.

I haven't watched one second of film, but the way I see it is PFF is dinging him pretty hard on his pocket presence. Some questions I have are: Is Hurts holding on to the ball because he doesn't understand what he sees? Or is he holding on to the ball because he is a football player trying to extend the play? Is this something he could be coached up in? Personally, I am intrigued. Give me a football player who is natural and intuitive on the field over the pure low football IQ athlete every day.

[ATTACH:full]

"Surfs Up 99 wrote:

Using data from PFF's draft guide I did a quick table on their grades. I realize some people don't put much stock in their analysis, but it might be interesting to see how the QB's compare, in their view.

Since we are talking about Hurts, if you look at the average grades, he ranks #2 behind Burrow. Why then is he ranked #10 in their guide? One reason might be is the following:



I haven't watched one second of film, but the way I see it is PFF is dinging him pretty hard on his pocket presence. Some questions I have are: Is Hurts holding on to the ball because he doesn't understand what he sees? Or is he holding on to the ball because he is a football player trying to extend the play? Is this something he could be coached up in? Personally, I am intrigued. Give me a football player who is natural and intuitive on the field over the pure low football IQ athlete every day.

[ATTACH:full]

Thanks for the information.

I find the difference between no pressure grade to the pressure grade to be the biggest "eye opener" for me.

I was also surprised at how low Tua is in so many of these categories compared to the other 9 QB's. It makes me wonder if he is as good an NFL prospect as most of the others.

I can see now why Jordan Love, Fromm, Herbert and Hurts are getting mentioned so much as the draft QB prospects. Look at how many categories they score as some shade of green.

"Surfs Up 99 wrote:

I haven't watched one second of film, but the way I see it is PFF is dinging him pretty hard on his pocket presence. Some questions I have are: Is Hurts holding on to the ball because he doesn't understand what he sees?

Yes, he's holding onto the ball...and running 50 yards for a TD on his own. If he's pressured, he either forces a pass into a tight window downfield (often with open receivers that he doesn't see) or he takes off running. Here's some highlights from his senior year-

"KeyFin wrote:

Yes, he's holding onto the ball...and running 50 yards for a TD on his own. If he's pressured, he either forces a pass into a tight window downfield (often with open receivers that he doesn't see) or he takes off running. Here's some highlights from his senior year-

I wish they did lowlights, too. That way, we could see where a QB might need some work. That said, Hurts sure does make things look easy, doesn't he? There probably isn't any chance that we won't take a QB in the 1st. If we didn't, then teams would guess who we are going after. Sucks, because he is growing on me.

"Surfs Up 99 wrote:

I wish they did lowlights, too. That way, we could see where a QB might need some work. That said, Hurts sure does make things look easy, doesn't he? There probably isn't any chance that we won't take a QB in the 1st. If we didn't, then teams would guess who we are going after. Sucks, because he is growing on me.

Well, there were plenty of "mistakes" in that film as well- not seeing outlet receivers and forcing throws deep. Abandoning the pocket when it was still holding up. Stuff like that is a bigger deal in the NFL and most coaches don't want a QB who thinks he's a RB once he passes the line of scrimmage.

Like I said, every glaring positive he does with his feet can also be viewed as a glaring negative...it all depends on what you want in a QB.

I am Pro Herbert. I think this board and most Dolfans are obsessed with Tua being our pick.

Pros: He's good in the pocket. Is capable of making all the throws. Can take off with the ball if he needs to. He's tall.
Cons: Goes through his read progressions too quickly sometimes(better than too slow I say.) Is a shotgun QB(Hasn't taken a lot of snaps under C that I know of and has to learn it)

Herb is my first choice. His throws make many of Tua's look like amateur (not pro) hour. I'm also not interested at trading away the farm from Burrow. Tank better next time.