We were 6-10 with Cutler last year and our offense never really seemed to gel. With Tannehill and our recent additions my expectations are much higher this year. I really don't care what Vegas or any of the so-called experts think. If we work hard, and take one game at a time, I think good things are going to happen.

 

Until the team puts together a consistent performance and prove they know how to win,Vegas has the right to feel that way.That being said they could be better than the prediction if things fall their way.

 

I have felt since last season that it is going to take the Dolphins two or three drafts to build a team which is a legitimate playoff team. So 6-10 appears about right when you consider that the DL, LB, Corp and OL are still huge question marks at this time.

I also feel that to get beyond mediocre in the future, the Dolphins are going to have to upgrade the QB position over the next few years.

 

Not really sure why they would have us any higher but always nice to beat the odds makers and I think that we're more than capable of doing as much.

 

Sounds about right to me. The Phins lost some good players in free agency and have a a lot of question marks even with the draft completed. It's up to the coaching staff to make this thing work.

 

If Tannehill comes play and plays at least 10 games at his late 2016 level? That's waaaaaaaay to low.

If Tannehill comes back and gets injured early and/or is a trainwreck for half the season due to time off? That could be pretty optimistic.

Bottom line - Tannehill's health and gameplay will likely have the largest effect on our win total good or bad. Right now, all we know is he is coming off 2 years without playing, it's easy to see why people outside the organization aren't optimistic. He will get the chance to show them they were wrong.

 

He's not been gone for two years. Injured in December 2017, right? So, basically he's missed one season. He was in training camp last year, so he had been rehabbing prior to the second injury, so it's not even like he's been away from the gym or football for that entire time.

 

Well, if the team is right about the overall team chemistry improving then that should help some as well.
I think they will be better than 6-10 but it makes sense why Vegas would think that way. They have to show something on the field before anyone will be able to take them seriously.

 

entire season relies on tannehills health

 

Definitely.

 

Well you see that's the thing, even through all those years where he was getting pounded and the beating he took he never missed a game.
I am really not too worried about his health. They all messed up last year and he should have had the surgery, he didn't and two weeks in it was all over. Had they went ahead and done the surgery when they should have he may have made the season opener.

 

They also had us pegged at 6-10 two years ago when we went 10-6. I don't pay attention to those odds until we're well into preseason; at this point it's basically a guess. For instance, my uneducated guess at this point is another 10-6 season...and I'll be the first to tell you that I am basing that on thin air, fairy dust and my personal (highly biased) thoughts on this team.

But hey, I have a 1 in 16 chance of being dead on right! (until my buddy cBrad brings up ties...)

 

Some else here said that the knee injury was non-related and in a different area. Don't know if that's true or not, but if so then the surgery may not have prevented anything.

 

It was an ACL right? You only have one in each knee.

 

I think it was Dan that explained it last year....he's in the medical field so I took him at his word.

 

I will have to look it up then. Like to read his explanation.

 

No offense, but the totals they out out are far from being an "uneducated" guess.

They don't build all those fancy things by blindly guessing.

One kicker folks don't factor in is the insanely high juice for some teams. For example if we are OV 6 win -180 they are basically telling you in that cost that they too think Miami will be at 7W+, but are not confident enough in that to NOT dangle that carrot in front of the fans of these teams.

Every fan base generally overrates his own team and their players. So vegas is like...why not profit on that.

While these guy's are far from perfect, they are right more than they are not, as far as making money. They also know more about this team than 4 CK's and 5 Boomer's, so essentially more than anyone.

All that being said?? I'll be betting the over when I head out there early June. :)

 

Like I said, two seasons ago they had us at 6 wins....they really blew that one. Last year they had us at 8 wins, they blew that one too. Of course, I've said many times that everyone deserves a pass on Miami last season because of RT and the hurricane- acts of nature are impossible to predict. But that's still two years in a row that they weren't even within +/- 2 wins.

In essence, we have our 2016 team back with about a half-dozen key additions and subtractions. The LB corp is way better, the D line is quite a bit worse without Suh. Meanwhile, our secondary, o line, RB's, WR's, TE's and corners are all stronger than 2016 and 2017, but we're expected to match Cutler's careless attitude from last season? Because that's the biggest change of all- we're swapping a washed-up has been for a Tannehill that's extremely eager to prove 2016's 9-game win streak wasn't a fluke.

Meanwhile, NE lost several key pieces on both sides of the ball. Buffalo and NY are betting the farm on rookie QB's. Our schedule looks the most favorable it's been in years yet we're only going to match Smokin' Jay's laid back snoozefest? I just don't buy it for one second.

As I said earlier, I don't make predictions until around week 3 of pre-season. I would bet the farm though that we will win 7+ this year.

 

In terms of closing lines they had us at 7 wins in both 2016 and 2017 so they were within +-2 last year:
http://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-win/?y=2017&sa=nfl&t=win&o=t

Since 2010, the distribution of the differences between predicted win totals and actual win totals has a mean of 0.143 and a standard deviation of 2.69. And the mean absolute difference is 2.2 from predicted (either above or below), so on average they do get to around +-2 over time. They've also done better for the Dolphins since 2010 with the mean absolute difference being only 1.25, in large part due to predicting our win totals exactly right in 2012, 2013 and 2014. So I wouldn't criticize Vegas too much, at least until a better method is found.

 

I don’t believe I said different area. If I used those words I didn’t mean a different ligament and just used poor wording. What I mean is, his second tear may have been in a different area, on the same ligament, however. What I said was recent evidence has shown that partial tears don’t necessarily respond any better to surgery than just doing physical therapy. I said that even if RT hadn’t of had a previous tear he most likely would have suffered an injury due to the mechanism of injury of his second (and I presume) complete tear.

Basically, there is nothing to suggest that surgery would have prevented his second injury. It’s possible, of course, but there is not one ounce of evidence to suggest that. And as I mentioned previously, new studies show that partial tears respond just as well, and sometimes better, to non-surgical treatments.

 

I feel better about him having surgery and not reinjuring the same ligament but I’m not a dr......Ill go on record and say we win 10 games......I want to say 11 but wouldn’t be surprised with 9......6 would piss me off and I think that’s just talking heads looking at suh and Landry gone.....I don’t think that’s necessarily the loss it looks like......we will see, and these words will be here, but I’m optimistic about the upcoming season if tanny plays it, espeacialy with the way our draft went down.......I think at worst we are 8-8.

 

If I had the money to burn I would take that bet.

 

Vegas sets there line off last season performance......phins win there first 3 games and the line changes....if they go 5-2 it changes again....i get were its at now....guarantee if I’m right it will change in the first 3-4 weeks.....phins are the under in week one.....they win that and Vegas will adjust for the next week.....its all odds and the more our team wins or looses the more the odds change.....

 

I'm starting to get pretty annoyed with these projections for Miami next season. Remaining as unbiased as a fan possibly can, I don't see how the hell we aren't a better team than the 2016 playoff squad.

• Ryan Tannehill is healthy
• Kenyan Drake is more versatile than Jay Ajayi, and our RB's as a whole are a deeper group
• Our WR and TE corps are deeper and more athletic
• Our OL is improved, at least on paper
• Our DE's are better and deeper
• Our LB's are better and more balanced (speed vs. strength)
• Our DB's are vastly superior
• Most players are in the third year of Gase's system, and experience might be the most important factor in a team's success

The only knock I can see on this group is that our DT's aren't as strong since the Suh transaction, but I'm not worried about Phillips and Godchaux as liabilities, especially with the depth of our DE's in a wide-9.

Too many pundits are disregarding Miami's monumental 2016 season and summing up the group based on their 2017 performance. This is unfair given that our schedule was among the league's toughest and Jay Cutler was our quarterback. Beyond this, our 2018 schedule is favorable.

I will be floored if this team doesn't win 10+ games.

 

Thanks Doc! I appreciate the info on that.

 

It's only just turned May, right?

Just checking...

 

Thing is, not much will change barring injury.

The only way it changes? Is if the public pounds one side.

 

lol..I'm not a Dr., but I did stay in a Holiday Inn express last night!

 

:chuckle:

 

Well I'm at a Sheraton.. in Hawaii! So I think that trumps your situation lol.

 

You probably didn't say "different area"- I probably phrased it wrong. I knew you implied that one didn't have anything to do with the other and vise versa and I believed ya.