The Miami Dolphins moved to 7-3 through Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders this past Sunday. It was not Miami’s typical offensive explosion that pushed them over the top during the game, but rather a suffocating defensive performance that shut down much of what the Raiders were attempting to do. Miami came away with the 20-13 win - good enough for the straight-up victory, but not enough to cover what was a 14-point line ahead of the game.
How do the oddsmakers see the Dolphins performing in Week 12 when they meet the New York Jets for the first of two games this year? New York fell 32-6 to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football, dropping to a 4-6 record for the season. The oddsmakers opened the line for Miami and New York in Week 12 with the Dolphins clearly favored in the contest.
For Week 12, the DraftKings Sportsbook opening lines had Miami favored by 7 points, a line that almost immediately moved to 7.5 points, then shifted again on Monday morning to an 8-point spread. The moneyline has Miami listed at -375 and the Jets at +295.
The point total for the game is 41 combined points.
Miami is in control of the AFC East as the season moves into the final six weeks. The Jets are falling out of the playoff picture and are watching their pre-season expectations collapse. The storyline surrounding the Dolphins this year is that they beat the teams with losing records and lose to teams with a winning record. Whether that is an accurate portrayal of who the Dolphins will be when the season - and the playoffs - come to a close we will have to wait to see. In Week 12, the season-long storyline does not matter - Miami has an opportunity to beat up on a struggling Jets team, keeping a losing team from rebounding and finding hope in the AFC playoff picture and the AFC East divisional standings. The oddsmakers seem to think the Dolphins are poised to do exactly that.
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Spread is 9.5 now
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I get that the Jets offense can't beat a Pop Warner team, but that defense is scary. I'm hoping that their defense has just thrown in the towel at this point and have said F U to the offense and realize it's not worth risking injury playing all out for a losing season.
Jets are banged up after their game against the Bills. Which is good for us.KeyFin and Springveldt like this. -
So when both teams have a good defense, while one has the #1 offense in the league and the other is #31 and starting a new QB, the line shouldn't be that surprising. -
The Jets are about ready to implode and I hope the Dolphins set it off.Unlucky 13 likes this. -
If Miami wins the turnover battle:
Miami 23
Jets 9
If Miami loses the turnover battle:
Miami 17
Jets 10 -
Points is at 41? I'm taking the under :chuckle:
If our offence stops turning the ball over inside our 35 yard line this horrible Jets offence is going to struggle to put up 10 points. The front 4 will be able to get a ton of pressure without any help as their OL is horrific, Ramsey has basically taken away one side of the field, I'll be surprised if they even throw at him so just keep an eye on Wilson and they will struggle to move the ball.Unlucky 13 and danmarino like this. -
Division game, I think anything can happen. As of right now, I think this game and our week 17 game against the hated Ravens are two of the most important games remaining on our schedule. This is a must win game for us in my opinion. We have an opportunity to start running away with the division if we can take this game. Buffalo has a mountain of a schedule remaining against teams that can beat them. Hopefully, the Eagles do us another favor this weekend by beating them. Maybe the Raiders can pull off the upset against the Chiefs? It would be nice to see the Chargers beat the Ravens as well. Getting things like that to go our way are bigger than most think. The main thing though is that we continue to get wins against the teams we're supposed to beat. We should beat the Jets on Friday. It won't be easy, don't expect a huge scoring output either. Some of ya'll are gonna cry when Tua doesn't throw for 500 yards and 5 TD's against a very good defense and that's fine. We come out with a win and i'll be happy. If the final score is 10-6 and we win, I'll be happy. This will not be an easy game for us. If we somehow lose this game, I'll be concerned because it's such a tight race right now in the league. We absolutely need to win this game.
danmarino and Springveldt like this. -
I'm expecting this to be a very tight, frustrating game. Would be huge if Hunt is back for this, the running game is really struggling right now with the backup backup guards in there.danmarino likes this. -
Springveldt and KeyFin like this.
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I agree with the majority here, I'd never bet against the Jets playing hard and being competitive against us. I don't think they have enough firepower to beat us unless it happens through defensive turnovers.
However, I'm expecting a blowout close to the point spread, maybe 37-3 Miami or something like that.Unlucky 13 likes this. -
I still expect us to win but more like 20-9 or something like that. I'm assuming it's going to be a very noisy game, it's at a very weird time (is that 3PM eastern on Friday? It's 8pm GMT, what the hell) so I guess it's a national holiday Friday? There are going to be lots of drunk, hungover from the day before, obnoxious New Yorkers there. -
Last week, we played down to Oakland and left a lot of points on the field. I think we improve this week and punch it in a few more times. -
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17-10 Miami with a defensive score by each team.
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I said in another thread that if neither team turns the ball over, I think we'll win something along the lines of 24-9.
If we can get to +2 or better in turnover margin, then it could look like a blowout on paper due to short fields and punching it in.
If we're reckless or unlucky with the ball, then it could be one of those games that looks a lot closer than it really was. Something like 18-12. -
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Unlucky 13 likes this.
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I think the under on points is a very safe bet.
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