If we look here:
http://live.advancednflstats.com/afa/index.php/home/tools/live-wp-graph/index.php?gameid1=2014101204
...we see the Dolphins were 91% likely to win the game today following the sack of Ryan Tannehill at the 3:15 mark in the 4th quarter. Following the punt that put the Packers on their own 40 yard line with 2:04 to play, the Dolphins were 62% likely to win.
From there, Aaron Rodgers engineered a drive that catapulted Green Bay from being only 38% likely to win with just over two minutes to play, to winning the game outright. During that drive, Olivier Vernon's sack of Rodgers on the Miami 48 yard line made the Dolphins 86% likely to win, with only 1:44 left to play. However, following that, the plays made by Rodgers ultimately made the Packers 100% likely to win, obviously.
What's astounding is that Rodgers's win probability added, or WPA, for the game was 0.93, with the maximum figure being 1.00. He nearly singlehandedly gave his team a one hundred percent chance of winning.
If we look here:
http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...players/index.php?year=2013&pos=QB&season=all
...we see that last year's leaders in the league had a WPA per game in the 0.35 range. A single-game WPA of 0.93 is almost unheard of, and it really illustrates just what Rodgers did during the final two minutes of the game today. He took a team fairly unlikely to win and essentially made it win.
Now, this is not uncharacteristic of Rodgers. He's one of the best QBs of all time, and he led the league in 2013 and 2012 in WPA per game. In 2011 he was third in the league. In 2010 he was fourth. In 2009 he was fifth.
So, rather than attribute today's loss to other factors, I think we should give serious consideration to the fact that we simply got outdueled in the clutch by a QB who is very good in the clutch.
When you're a fan of a team, the tendency is to focus on your own team a great deal, and to therefore attribute the things that happens to it to things it does, rather than to what its opposing team does.
I think in this case we need to focus in on what the Packers have that almost no other team does, and that is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game, and one who plays very well in the clutch.
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DPlus47 likes this.
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
You and your passer rating spreadsheets...try watching a game.
Yes Rodgers played great...but we certainly set it up for him, no matter what stats you try to fling out there.
The reason that WPA may be almost unheard of, is because teams don't give them a free pass to do it...like we did. He took what we gave him...and we gave him a LOT.
Not everything can be answered with passer rating and WPA...no matter how much you think it so. -
I saw this thread on Finheaven. The OP concluded that because Davone Bess had a higher WPA than Calvin Johnson, he was a better playmaker.
PhinFan1968 likes this. -
Actually we were set to 100% lose the game when we gave the ball back to Rodgers.
Seriously we have seen it time in time again. You cannot give the ball back to a great team because you will lose. Team is no better off than it was 5-10 years ago. Its truly sad. Still need a head coach. -
PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
I wonder if Marino threw something when the fake spike happened.... -
No matter what the stats say, Rodgers plays at an entirely different level than other QB's in the game. If it was Manning in that pocket, he was sacked 10 times today. If it was Rivers or Brees or almost anyone else, they'd gain 1-5 yards on each scramble or throw an incomplete pass. Despite us shutting down Rodgers over and over again, he was just too good to be denied.
Does that make me happy? Hell no! I can live with it though.ElNino, mullingan, DOLPHAN1 and 1 other person like this. -
ASOT and BlameItOnTheHenne like this.
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ASOT likes this.
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vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
I think those are pretty cool stats.....to be honest, and yeh...Rogers is amazing.
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The biggest reason the Packers won today, if you watched the game, was our own inability to control the game a the end with good, effective playcalling, and execution to run out the clock. Everyone knows if Rodgers got the ball back Green Bay would likely win. Everyone but our coaches, who really didnt seem very interested in calling effective plays to try and wind down the clock. Stats... pfft..thisperishedmin, gunn34, ASOT and 2 others like this. -
Needed a long analytic post to tell us why they won. Lol
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This loss wasn't all on him but you can't throw 2 INT's and expect to win football games. You can't miss wide open players on the goal line. You can't have a passer rating of 15 through half of a game.
I don't think anyone here wants RTH to fail. We all need him to be a franchise QB if Miami is ever going to be good. The reality is he is not a franchise QB. -
I am not happy about the loss, but the way we started the game and played the first half, I did not think we would be winning the game with 3 seconds to go... and letting Rodgers have about 3 minutes to operate a comeback, was really my issue... You needed to put them away and getting a 1st down was a priority, but our coaching staff decided to not to win... and punted... I am sure non of the offensive guys approved of being conservative on that last O drive of the game... -
My point had nothing to do with Tannehill, my point was that our coaching staff, failed to put us in a good position to win the game, all we really needed was a first down. Instead we were as stupid and as vanilla as we could be, and content to punt the ball and give the best QB in the game the opportunity to beat us.
Again, that point, has nothing to do with Tannehill... he's irrelevant in this to me. When it mattered, in the second half, he did enough to put us in position to win, after a miserable start. It was our poor coaching, clock management, and playcalling that put the ball back into the hands of Aaron Rodgers to put the nail in the coffin. I get that the players didn't execute on that drive, but we didnt exactly put them in the best positions to succeed. -
Tannehill played a bad first half and we were down by 3. Rodgers played an incredible first half and he was up by 3. In the 4th quarter, Rodgers outplayed Tannehill by a wide margin, yet we were up by 7. So you can't place this solely on a quarterback- there were many factors involved with this loss....including a Green Bay team that was simply better than us.PhinFan1968 likes this. -
PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
KeyFin likes this. -
It was an across the board loss. The of really, really needed a 1st down that involved a couple of rushing plays. The ST can't give up a 15ish yard return on that punt. The first play, the D give up 11 yards on a rush that took almost no time off of the clock. Give up anything less than a first down and the clock is still running.
PhinFan1968 likes this. -
Finnegan deserves some horns for not protecting the boundary on the fake spike play, IMO.
100% of the Hall of Fame quarterbacks who started at Sun Life today walked out with victories. That's an underrated stat.Piston Honda likes this. -
PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
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We shouldn't let the coverage called overtake the responsibility of the cornerback on the play, IMO. Protect the boundary and make the tackle. Cover 3 vs. Cover 1 press or whatever isn't going to change what happens on that play if the corner doesn't make the play that is right there for him to make.
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I was actually mad at the Packers for running so much clock all the way down and not taking a timeout. They did the fake spike and let it run all the way down to 6 seconds. I mean it was like you have to give us time to run a couple more plays.
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The drive where we were tied 10-10 and Rodgers made that throw for a first down was amazing.
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I had thought we had one left.
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
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roy_miami likes this.
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You and I both know that if Finnegan was in press and allowed a TD there would be millions of posts about how he should have given a cushion ms kept the play in front of him at all costs. -
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Going man-to-man at the goal line against Rodgers is an awful idea. They scored like it was a practice or pick up game on that game winning TD, like it was the easiest thing in the world. We can hate on Wheeler but that was an awful scheme to be in. Lots of questionable decisions helped the Packers regardless of stats.
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