Dolphins Draft Strategy - They Will Move Up... for a QB

"Fin D wrote:

Don't care.

I see Tua as Steve Young mixed with Drew Brees. Give them our entire first round for all I care.

Fortune favors the bold.

I’m with ya as long as the medical outlook is thru a 2nd contract. As in his rookie deal and the 2nd contract extension at tail end. 10 years yep

I watched that kids sophomore tape last year at season end and came away with I will gladly go 0 and 16 in 2019 with the dolphins if it ensures me that qb.

This is going to come across badly with you all but if this is their mentality that without question we have to have one of these picks so bad that we are now going to trade away all our draft capital we gained when all we had to do once we were out of any contention was to evaluate talent and not win games which hurt our chances at said pick than I hope this blows up in their face.

You don’t build teams for 5-11 marks nothing is gained nothing. ReHard less of what people say there is no tangible victory from 3-13 team to a 5-11 team they both suck.

If the goal was to get a top rated qb and we put ourselves out of contention to win 5 games I have a real problem with who’s running things.

As for TUA I’m going on record as not wanting him unless he falls to us. We have plenty of holes and depth and these draft picks are to valuable for us this year to waste on an often injured undersized quarterback IMHO.

Going another year with Fitz would be a critical mistake for this teams future.

I'm really hoping that you guys, Hoops and FinD, are right about Tua. I never got that feeling, BUT, I don't consider myself to be some sort of awesome evaluator.

"resnor wrote:

I'm really hoping that you guys, Hoops and FinD, are right about Tua. I never got that feeling, BUT, I don't consider myself to be some sort of awesome evaluator.

Me neither. Most of us aren't really - but we can watch some college ball, pre-draft process (senior bowl, combine, etc), pull up highlights/lowlights, go through some statlines, listen to the media around college teams instead of just national, go through mocks, etc.

I love the draft and the process and offseason, team building and maneuvering just appeals to me. So while I am not going to pretend I am a tape junkie who can intricately break down a QB throwing motion, WR route tree or defender's gap assignments, I hear all the buzz and try to match it with the info I have seen on and off the field.

It's just about having fun and having good debate imo. As for Tua, the talent is there, the leadership and personality seem good. Yeah, he had a good team around him, but so did Montana, so did Manning, so does Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes.

"resnor wrote:

I'm really hoping that you guys, Hoops and FinD, are right about Tua. I never got that feeling, BUT, I don't consider myself to be some sort of awesome evaluator.

Given the poor records of professional talent evaluators (you know the ones that actually work in the NFL) I don't think anyone has proven to be an "awesome evaluator" of QB talent. Drafting QB's is a crapshoot, even with high 1st rounders.

So statistically speaking we should expect to see whoever we pick fail to be a consistently above average QB or better.

In any case, I want Tua because I prefer high floor more than high ceiling for high 1st rounders, and while I have no idea whether Tua will end up "great" it's hard for me to see him being just average or worse (despite historical probabilities). And that's good enough (statistically) to build a team around: consistently above average even if not great. Obviously injury concerns exist, but I'm not sacrificing talent for injury concerns at QB. I mean.. if he fails due to injury or otherwise, just try again!

"Fin D wrote:

I understand why people think Burrow is good.
I don't understand why people think Tua isn't.

Sone people do think that, but I think most of us just arent entirely sold on him.

I'm not entirely sold on Burrow either. I think they both have major risks.

I mean, I havent heard anyone say he isnt a great college QB. More just question how his abilities translate to the pro game or whether he will be injured constantly.

"cbrad wrote:

Given the poor records of professional talent evaluators (you know the ones that actually work in the NFL) I don't think anyone has proven to be an "awesome evaluator" of QB talent. Drafting QB's is a crapshoot, even with high 1st rounders.

The fact that it is this way across pretty much all sports is interesting to me. Makes you wonder if an owner would be financially best served just firing the entire scouting staff and going by crowdsource. :chuckle:

"texanphinatic wrote:

The fact that it is this way across pretty much all sports is interesting to me. Makes you wonder if an owner would be financially best served just firing the entire scouting staff and going by crowdsource. :chuckle:

Hell, Mitch Trubisky was actually rated higher than Patrick Mahomes if memories serves me correct.

How did that work out?

Absolutely not, my goal is to extend our draft capital over two drafts, kind of the opposite of what you're saying. I'm pick greedy, and the Fins need to be that. So...

Somebody want to move up to 27? Good give us your 2021 1st and a 4th.

Somebody want to move up to pick 39? Good give us your 2021 2nd and a conditional 4th (could become 3rd depending on where they end up picking I'm 2021)

With our remaining 3 first day picks 1. Tua 2. OL 3 Bpa(OL, DE, LB, S)

Then we see what holes we fill in free agency, come back in 2021 with still strong draft capital with two 1s and two 2s.

Thus we can plug some holes this year, hopefully have a successful FA, come back in 2021 reevaluate and have a better idea where to put those 4 first day picks in the next draft. That would give us the best chance at FINALLY building a long term serious contender.

Granted if we can't find teams to trade 2021 draft picks to us, then simply trade down this year or stay where we are.

But my ultimate goal would be to get what we need out of this draft and extending our draft capital into the next one.

In a nutshell that gives us 3 first day picks to spend in 2020 and 4 first day picks to spend in 2021.. when we have a better idea where we need to put those 2021 picks.

"IdrA wrote:

Absolutely not, my goal is to extend our draft capital over two drafts, kind of the opposite of what you're saying. I'm pick greedy, and the Fins need to be that. So...

Somebody want to move up to 27? Good give us your 2021 1st and a 4th.

Somebody want to move up to pick 39? Good give us your 2021 2nd and a conditional 4th (could become 3rd depending on where they end up picking I'm 2021)

With our remaining 3 first day picks 1. Tua 2. OL 3 Bpa(OL, DE, LB, S)

Then we see what holes we fill in free agency, come back in 2021 with still strong draft capital with two 1s and two 2s.

Thus we can plug some holes this year, hopefully have a successful FA, come back in 2021 reevaluate and have a better idea where to put those 4 first day picks in the next draft. That would give us the best chance at FINALLY building a long term serious contender.

Granted if we can't find teams to trade 2021 draft picks to us, then simply trade down this year or stay where we are.

But my ultimate goal would be to get what we need out of this draft and extending our draft capital into the next one.

In a nutshell that gives us 3 first day picks to spend in 2020 and 4 first day picks to spend in 2021.. when we have a better idea where we need to put those 2021 picks.

Your notion of trading draft picks to stock pile for future drafts intrigues me and is something I have wondered if we might do. The Dolphins have been a hot mess for years and it's not going to get fixed overnight....nor in one draft.

"IdrA wrote:

Absolutely not, my goal is to extend our draft capital over two drafts, kind of the opposite of what you're saying. I'm pick greedy, and the Fins need to be that. So...

Somebody want to move up to 27? Good give us your 2021 1st and a 4th.

Somebody want to move up to pick 39? Good give us your 2021 2nd and a conditional 4th (could become 3rd depending on where they end up picking I'm 2021)

With our remaining 3 first day picks 1. Tua 2. OL 3 Bpa(OL, DE, LB, S)

Then we see what holes we fill in free agency, come back in 2021 with still strong draft capital with two 1s and two 2s.

Thus we can plug some holes this year, hopefully have a successful FA, come back in 2021 reevaluate and have a better idea where to put those 4 first day picks in the next draft. That would give us the best chance at FINALLY building a long term serious contender.

Granted if we can't find teams to trade 2021 draft picks to us, then simply trade down this year or stay where we are.

But my ultimate goal would be to get what we need out of this draft and extending our draft capital into the next one.

In a nutshell that gives us 3 first day picks to spend in 2020 and 4 first day picks to spend in 2021.. when we have a better idea where we need to put those 2021 picks.

I agree, trading back is the smarter move whenever possible since we're likely taking BPA regardless outside the first two picks (who I also believe will be Tua and an offensive lineman). I think we could just as easily take Tua at #7 or #10 though so if a trade opens for either of our earlier picks, I would personally take them in a heartbeat if it means an extra 1st next season.

"KeyFin wrote:

I agree, trading back is the smarter move whenever possible since we're likely taking BPA regardless outside the first two picks (who I also believe will be Tua and an offensive lineman). I think we could just as easily take Tua at #7 or #10 though so if a trade opens for either of our earlier picks, I would personally take them in a heartbeat if it means an extra 1st next season.

You want to bet that the Chargers, Jags and Panthers all pass on a franchise level QB if his medicals are looking good? I don't. Unless there is a setback before the draft, there is no way that happens.

"KeyFin wrote:

I agree, trading back is the smarter move whenever possible since we're likely taking BPA regardless outside the first two picks (who I also believe will be Tua and an offensive lineman). I think we could just as easily take Tua at #7 or #10 though so if a trade opens for either of our earlier picks, I would personally take them in a heartbeat if it means an extra 1st next season.

Tua wont be there at 7 unless the medicals pre-draft show a big problem. Someone will trade up with Detroit and get him, most likely. I don't agree with that, I think his injury is too big a risk, but I think a lot of teams are willing to take the risk.

There's ZERO change the bengals trade #1/Burrow. I'm not even sure why it's suggested in the OP here. There's no way they're that stupid.

As for us.. I'd rather stay put at our spot. We shipped out alot of talent to accumulate those picks, and we need everyone of them to start filling holes.

I dont buy that Detroit will look to trade down either. I wouldn't at all be surprised they stay put and draft themselves a QB. Stafford is done. If the coach and GM want to try and save their jobs a fresh new QB is one way to do that. Ownership won't stop them. She's insane as it is. If they were smart they'd have fired the GM and Patricia, started over and drafted a QB. They could still take one now, and just find a new HC next year if they wanted. I just dont see them passing up an opportunity to replace Stafford. His health is deteriorating, his wife has health issues too, and quite frankly he hasn't got it done there. It's time to move on.

I honestly can't believe that anybody is seriously advocating moving up to draft a banged up, undersized QB. We're a 5 win team, last in our division. Let's get a couple of guys on base first before swinging for the fences. IF Tua was completely healthy he would, at best, be the third rated QB on the horizon behind Burrow and Lawrence and, that's just the guys on the shiny teams. Is it wise to spend valuable draft capital to move up to draft an "also ran"? I sure hope Ross and the team are giving this some careful thought and not just going with the plan from last September.

"Hooligan wrote:

I honestly can't believe that anybody is seriously advocating moving up to draft a banged up, undersized QB. We're a 5 win team, last in our division. Let's get a couple of guys on base first before swinging for the fences. IF Tua was completely healthy he would, at best, be the third rated QB on the horizon behind Burrow and Lawrence and, that's just the guys on the shiny teams. Is it wise to spend valuable draft capital to move up to draft an "also ran"? I sure hope Ross and the team are giving this some careful thought and not just going with the plan from last September.

Tua is a cross between Steve Young and Drew Brees.

Maybe but it could easily be Steve Young on the Buckaneers and Brees on the Chargers if you don't build the rest of the team right.

"Hooligan wrote:

Maybe but it could easily be Steve Young on the Buckaneers and Brees on the Chargers if you don't build the rest of the team right.

Sure, but no one is saying get Tua and boom, championship.

QB is the most important, and if you have a shot at a Steve Young Drew Brees hybrid...well for god's sake....go get that player!

"Fin D wrote:

Tua is a cross between Steve Young and Drew Brees.

Wouldn't that be John Elway? :wink2:

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

All I know is I'll be incredibly disappointed if we trade picks to get a QB we could have gotten through proper strategy without losing picks.

Proper strategy is not losing

"resnor wrote:

Wasn't Bo Jackson's career cut short cause he dislocated his hip? I know medicine has improved since then, but still...

Not correct

"brandon27 wrote:

There's ZERO change the bengals trade #1/Burrow. I'm not even sure why it's suggested in the OP here. There's no way they're that stupid.

As for us.. I'd rather stay put at our spot. We shipped out alot of talent to accumulate those picks, and we need everyone of them to start filling holes.

I dont buy that Detroit will look to trade down either. I wouldn't at all be surprised they stay put and draft themselves a QB. Stafford is done. If the coach and GM want to try and save their jobs a fresh new QB is one way to do that. Ownership won't stop them. She's insane as it is. If they were smart they'd have fired the GM and Patricia, started over and drafted a QB. They could still take one now, and just find a new HC next year if they wanted. I just dont see them passing up an opportunity to replace Stafford. His health is deteriorating, his wife has health issues too, and quite frankly he hasn't got it done there. It's time to move on.

Although Stafford was having his best statistical year before the injury and he is owed a lot of salary this year

"Patster1969 wrote:

Proper strategy is not losing

That is fair enough.

In the end I dont care what we do, within the rules, if we end up winning.

That said, I dont really think winning this past year will help much long term. Most of the roster will be replaced and as long as we competed well fans would have been happy.

I'm not saying losebon purpose btw necessarily but I probably wouldnt have signed Fitz as much as I love him.

I'd have given Rosen the chance to either fail or succeed. I dont think Rosen is in Flores plans so I dont think his failure would have been a negative if it happened. For the team longterm I mean.

"Patster1969 wrote:

Not correct

Well it was a question, not a statement...and I got the answer days ago. Thanks.

"resnor wrote:

Well it was a question, not a statement...and I got the answer days ago. Thanks.

What am I missing ? How was his career not cut short from a hip injury ?