Would anyone be shocked by a 6-10 record? Or 3-13 to end the season? Fitzmagic is due for some bad games, so even the Giants game (the one game I feel Miami should be favored to win) could be a loss. Bengals are MUCH better with Dalton starting, Jets are at home with revenge motivation, and the Pats will need a win for better playoff seeding.

What we should expect is some tough, hard fought games and not the helpless blowout losses we saw to start the season.

 

I expect 5-11

 

Would be ideal.

 

Are you thinking our franchise QB will be from the 2021 draft?

 

If I remember Carmen’s position correctly it is that coaching is more important than players. So if Flores can get this group of misfits to 6-10 then that's more important to long term success than drafting the right QB but giving him coaches like Adam Gase and Zac Taylor.

 

Or if you are hesitant the spend a top 10 pick on Tua. Miami could get away with it, given the three first rounders, but it would feel like less of a loss to spend #9 on Tua versus passing on Chance Young at #2 to grab Tua -IF he didn't pan out. Given the value of a franchise QB, even passing on Young at #2 to grab Tua there would be hailed as a great move if Tua is successful.

 

I know we haven't had much luck with Rosen, but do you feel this coaching staff and the system they bring can have success with a QB a notch below the franchise level?

 

Flores commented a few days ago that he feels like Rosen gets better every week and he might still have a chance to start this year- he said the best player during the week will start regardless. Rosen's days are far from over in Miami.

 

I am honestly surprised that Fitz hasn't been hurt. He takes big hits and runs like he is a 25 year old who hasn't learned how to slide.

 

I'm not rooting for a tank, but only this year is the team at the 3rd and 10th spots separated by one win.

 

I don't see how finishing 6-10 helps. A chunk of the roster will be turned over and if Flores is responsible for this team finishing strongly, he will be just as capable next year of doing it with, likely better talent.

The top 7 or so will be blue chip and I'd rather have a shot at one of those guys than the next tier.

 

But at the same time they have to try to win.

Basically the only hope really is Fitz gets hurt early next game

 

“The Flores effect”

“I study the waiver wire every day for 15 years”

Nice that he is getting some attention, as he is doing a hell of a job in his first year..

Said it after I jumped into his story when he was hired, has traits of the great one.

 

Or plays poorly

 

It’s like a worst case scenario playing out in terms of short term.

I understand establishing a culture and yada yada yada but this team needs talent.

and not to have to trade all it’s draft assets to try and get in position for it.

the tua injury thing I guess makes this hurt a little less.

still losing assets for meaningless wins.

 

I’m all about talent, but having the security and trust that we have great leadership and sounds schemes in place takes precedent.

Knowing we have a head coach that has innate ability to motivate grown men to play together, to play for each other takes precedent..

Knowing we have a coach where players will run through walls for, and to have a coach who cares for his players and families takes precedent.

And knowing we have a coach who takes pride in every aspect of the organization including scouting takes Precedent.

This team is competing and winning against superior roasters..What a great sign for the future of our team

 

Seriously though, how bad would it look for Jests fans if they came in last in the division. :sidelol::sidelol::sidelol::sidelol:

But for real, we have a very good shot at winning the next 3 games. However, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves either, we could very easily lose all 3 games. That's just the nature of having a talent deficient roster. It's a good draft, we have enough holes to not be worried about a narrow group of needs vs. BPA.

Meanwhile, Tua has pretty much come out and said if he has a good chance at being a top 15 pick, he's coming out. If I am Grier, I'm giving his people a call and saying "our spot is the worst case".

 

"We take him in the first round, for sure." says Grier


:chuckle:

 

If those are our requirements for a coach Dan Campbell was fine.

I'm going to lay off on talking negative about Flores himself because I've come to realize my issue isnt with him, I advocated his hiring, my issue is with the fan base crowning him before he has accomplished anything.

Like I've said, this is my position on our season so far and Flores as a coach.

1) We expected 3-5 wins if Fitz started up until the Ravens dismantled us. I contest that we prematurely downgraded expectations at that point and thus our current record shouldnt be shocking.

2) We had the better QB in 2 of 3 wins. I know a QB doesnt win by himself, but winning that battle always gives you an advantage in the war regardless of how bad the rest of your team is. Especially when the QB you are facing are plain bad.

3) Players with an insecure future are naturally more likely to play hard intelligent football. Knowing your job and future are on the line each week and you're trying to find a place in the NFL...playing hard isnt shocking. People who think bad teams just "quit" dont really understand competition or player mindsets.

4) Because these wins say nothing positive or negative about Flores to me, all they have done is cost us a potential Franchise QB and are therefore a large net negative.

 

I mean, we gave up 163 points in the first 4 games, while scoring 26. I don't think most expected that. So while YOU may think that we're exactly where it was predicted, I don't think anyone was making predictions thinking that we would be outscored that bad through the first 1/4 of the season.

 

Nobody is crowning Flores, but we are excited at the potential of a coach who seems to be exceeding admittedly minimal expectations. We are excited to see a coach who seems to be getting the best out of players and where young players seem to be regularly improving. Who seems to maybe be setting up a good culture.

It's all low hanging fruit at this point, sure. But at least it is something. He still has a LOT to prove, but he is giving us reasons to hope for the next year with better talent. Compare that to Adam Gase in New York. Who among Jests fans is intrigued by another year of that mess?

 

He's not exceeding expectations in a statistical sense unless he wins out and gets us to 7 wins. I pointed this out in another thread:
https://www.thephins.com/threads/a-word-of-warning-for-next-season.94806/#post-3229013

Maybe we can say he technically "exceeded expectations" if he gets us to 6 wins, but 4-5 wins = expectations set right before the season began by Vegas. Also, most HoF coaches show sustained >50% win% from year 2 or year 3 with a smaller percentage taking much longer (e.g., Landry, Belichick, etc...) so the real test is next year and the year afterward. Anyway, right now Flores is performing exactly as expected by the only measure that matters for HC's: win%.

 

I honestly couldn't care less about what Vegas was predicting for this season. He is exceeding or meeting expectation for me in a number of areas which I thought this year would matter more than wins. Next year will be a new challenge, sure, and we all should expect better in the wins column as more talent comes in.

 

Vegas also had Miami at odds I've never seen before.. 10,000 to one odds after the first two games when the roster was gutted.

The fact that Miami can compete and can probably beat some of the lower tier playoff contenders is something you have to consider.

 

Odds for what? For winning the SB? After week 2 our odds (using moneylines) for winning the SB were at +200,000 with 3 other teams at +100,000. This isn't unusual. Buffalo had the same odds after week 2 in 2018:
https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-reg/?y=2019&sa=nfl&a=sb&p=reg&o=r
https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-reg/?y=2018&sa=nfl&a=sb&p=reg&o=r

 

Yeah you don't have to care. That's fine. But those are the most "realistic" expectations you'll find because of Vegas' predictive power. Anyway, I'm going with Vegas. It helps to remove a lot of fan bias.

 

The loss against Baltimore to start the season, when few knew how good Baltimore was at the time, made people think the Dolphins were a lot poorer than they are. Then when they lost big to New England it sort of cemented that perception. If they played Baltimore and New England again nowadays the results would probably be similar.

 

I think it would be a blowout but not to the degree we saw those first two games. Have to remember that 59-10 win by the Ravens is the 15th largest point differential in NFL history. Very unlikely to repeat that. But yes I agree we'd probably lose by 20+. We'll see with NE later on.

 

Coach of the year? Don't know about that...he'd have to win out and do it convincingly, to even be considered.

HOWEVER...probably premature, but I love this coach. I REALLY like what he's doing...love his charisma, love his professionalism, discipline, ability to "feel" the players, ability to get full buy-in, ability to lead a team, consisting of less talent than any roster I can remember, to wins in the NFL...especially after the high % of the roster that was added less than ONE WEEK before the season started!!! Who does that?!?! It would be very hard to claim this team is more talented than anybody in the league...impossible IMO.

Maybe I'm in the minority, but as a fan, I pull hard for my team to win EVERY game...pre-season, season, post-season, whenever. IDGAF about draft position.

There is no way in hell anybody can could convince me, ESPECIALLY after week 2, that this team was destined for anything better than 0-16. If we were to get 6 wins, I'm not saying crown him, but I'm more optimistic about this team's leadership going forward than I've been in a VERY long time...it just feels legit. For the first time since Shula, for me, I actually look forward to watching the HEAD COACH on game day, in pressers, interviews, any possible appearance.

He hasn't proven he can lead a talented team to its corresponding, expected level of success, but I'm all about watching this progress, and I don't expect full payoff within 2 years. PLENTY of fans have been begging for a full break-down and rebuild for quite a while...we finally got it, and people ***** that we win games even though we near-completely gutted the roster.

I'm all in on Flo...and believe "coach of the year" is in the cards, but down the line.

 

Such an enormously ignorant thought process. Spewed as if drafting is a science and you know it's returns.

A competent HC with the ability to coax the most out of their team is far more important than any player you profess to like coming out of college, or FA. Time and time again we see teams (past Dolphin regimes, too) load up their rosters with "talent", either from the draft or FA, and consistently achieve absolutely nothing. Because, newsflash, everyone is immensely talented in the NFL.

It's not accumulating draft picks, it is not relevant where or which rounds those players are picked in the draft, and it is not about acquiring touted FA's; it's the plan set forth by the coaching staff and how the team buys in that's sets the true precedent for winning.

And the good news thus far, Flores is showing signs for that knack.

 

I don’t agree with #4 so it’s hard to debate the topic if you don’t see very unique negative variables surrounding the first time coach.

The context involved in our situation as an organization demands relative perspective..

 

I'm thinking I need to reevaluate my thinking too. Thanks to some good people here I've sort of realized my desire to be contrarian and right overtook my rational thinking.

While I'm not ready to say Flores is 100% the right guy, I do want to say he hasn't done anything negative yet to deserve ridicule. Hes had a few moments where I do think he looked lost but mainly at the start of the season so maybe I need to let that go as well.

Also, I wanted him hired in the first place. I'm not sure why now I'm so intent on playing the opposite side. Maybe so I can say I was right either way but if I'm right by taking both sides that means nothing in the end.

Maybe also a bit bitter we wont have that #1 pick right about now.

 

What made you endorse the hire?

 

The fact that he seemed more like a hard worker than someone who was gifted everything. I also thought his story and personality seemed fairly similar to Grier and that they would have some chemistry.

 

Don't know if it means anything to you or not, but I respect the heck out of you for being able to admit this and change your line of thinking.

 

Yeah it’s ignorant alright. Til we get to the draft weekend and they have to pony up all our assets to try and go get the qb cause we won meaningless games.

the cultures already established I don’t need any more wins.

thanks Carmen

 

Fear not for I saw a mock draft that had Burrow going 10th.

 

No you don’t. Flores shelf life is shorter than a rookie qb first round pick contract if he doesn’t get a difference maker at the position.

all the culture in tbe world can’t offset that.

 

Those days of stupidity are hopefully behind the Dolphins. I've got a strong hunch, if you will, that this current Dolphins regime is not going to operate unnecessarily and will not erroneously trade away valuable resources for a single player either (IDGAF who is throwing the rock), that's not how the philosophies of football flow for Flores, and Grier & Co. will abide.

BTW, only foolishness implicates "meaningless" wins, and you're not a fool (at least in the realm of football) so knock it off with the absurdities.