Saw this on another site:
http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/joe-philbin-went-to-miami
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Not that big a deal without seeing a better breakdown of the numbers. For example, how does the past 8 or 16 games compare to the previous 2 years? Has there been improvement as Tannehill has matured and more recently since he's adapted to Lazor's system? If there's no difference, then I will be concerned
Fin4Ever, Unlucky 13 and PhinFan1968 like this. -
PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
Fin4Ever and Unlucky 13 like this. -
I think it's time to finally cut Tannehill.
Sent from my SM-G360T1 using TapatalkFin4Ever, muscle979, Killer Bees and 6 others like this. -
If you see a team that consistently ahead early in games, you probably have a very well coached team. Vice versa with teams that consistently are behind early.
Kud_II, Fin4Ever, Springveldt and 3 others like this. -
when he shows that he's willing to do whatever it takes to get the first down and shows a sense of urgency in the early parts of the game, problem solved..Right now he's content with the play call and lacks improvisational skills...He's a tough sob but he's got to combine the thought process of dropping, surveying, and recognition of when to bail..He's not being aggressive when finding different platforms with his feet, he's not moving to different spots in the pocket with authority, and he's completely unaware of what it could mean to his team to take off and convert a first down early in the game with his legs..
Steve young use to say that he would ignore a play call by bill walsh and run it up against the defense EARLY in the game because he knew what that did to a defense for the rest of the game, steve young is probably the most dangerous and cerebral qb to ever play.
When ryan learns this nuance you will see a difference..Right now he and his coordinator are pidgeon holing him to a static pocket and that sucks ***.dolphin25, Fin-Omenal, firedan and 1 other person like this. -
PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
Steve Young also "officially" got diagnosed with 7 concussions, and reports from teammates and others say the "real" number is probably much higher. No thanks. But he knew better than Bill Walsh so...
And did you see the recent report that Lazor got in Tannehill's *** about taking hits? I guess ignoring Philbin wouldn't be near the same as ignoring one of the most genius offensive coaches of all time...but the first time he gets a concussion........... -
I was taught as a young Lad that leading after the 4th quarter wins 100% of the time.
When we get to that point, we will be considered Superbowl Champs which is the goal for every team, every season.Fin4Ever likes this. -
so were at the point where if a player gets concussed its all over huh...jeez, what the game has turned into...
do whatever it takes to win..worry about consequences later, or else do something else.dolphin25 and shamegame13 like this. -
Finster likes this.
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The Fins defer to the 2nd half when they win the coin toss, and most teams elect to have the first possession when they win the coin toss. That's pretty much all this convoluted stat reflects. If we are down 7-3 at the end of the 1st quarter, it doesn't change our game plan.
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Stats can be interesting and at times meaningful but it's hard to relate what that means to a team with almost completely different players and a QB who has had several years more of experience. If anything, it would show tendencies of the coach but even the coordinator has changed. I wonder what it looks like under Lazor with more recent data from RTH as he's developed.
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MikeHoncho, Undisputed, djphinfan and 3 others like this.
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
Fin4Ever likes this. -
unless you were just kidding the whole time and im the *** for falling for it..lolFin4Ever and PhinFan1968 like this. -
No surprise, what would be more interesting is the number of possessions in the first qtr.
Seems we are the kings of the "3 and out" in the first qtrFin4Ever likes this. -
It certainly isn't a surprising stat. As others said, it absolutely meshes with what we see with our eyes on Sundays. Heck, even when we crushed the Raiders last season, they were winning 7-0 early. Philbin teams, to this point, DO NOT start fast. And the defense seems to take some time figuring things out to boot. Thankfully, we seem to make good halftime adjustments and perform well in that quarter, but I would sure feel better if we had more games where we were up early on.
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To be fair, the biggest complaint under Sparano was that our offense always started slow with Henne up until his last few games as head coach. So this is an issue that's going back almost a decade and the only true fix is smarter play or smarter play calling. Like others have said, the final score is what really matters, but it is tough when you start in a hole every game.
Then again, it also says a lot about our defense. We always seem to start loose and tighten up in the second half, but I think all teams do that with in-game adjustments. -
KeyFin likes this.
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
There's nothing scary about that stat...nor about the whole chart (which I saw in club chat). Most all teams on that chart, including the bottom AND the top, have roughly the same winning percentage whether trailing or leading after the first quarter. There are some teams that are close to the top 10 in % of games with a lead after the first quarter, that are routinely in the bottom of the league over the season (Tampa Bay for one). Some teams have a high % of 1st quarter leads, but have a losing record in those games.
What's that saying? "It's how you finish?" -
dolphin25 and PhinFan1968 like this.
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PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
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2014 = 2-4 in the final 6 games
2013 = 3-3 in the final 6 games
2012 = 3-3 in the final 6 games
This team has not "finished strong" at the tail end of the season for a hair over half its games during Philbin's tenure. -
Halftime scores would hold more weight. Being out-scored in the 1st quarter when everyone is getting in the swing of the game can be misleading. What is the average score at the end of the first quarter anyway? 7-3? 7-0? 3-0? 3-3? It's just a quarter.
I would like to see more data on this, but trailing after the first quarter of play doesn't sound all that big of a deal because:
A. More often than not it's a one score game.
B. There is still 75% of the game to be played.
In conclusion, it's an interesting study, but it seems pretty meaningless.dolphin25 and PhinFan1968 like this. -
Anyone watch the Denver game last night? Peyton didn't have much time in the pocket yet he continually, time and time again threw deep. It's a myth that you have to have a dominant O-line to push the ball downfield. What a dominant O-line will give you is the ability to run the ball without the opponent being tired.
This stat is a reflection of the fact that Miami doesn't run the ball early and that's because...well...did you watch the Washington game? They couldn't unless the defensive line was gassed and on their heals.
The lack of ability amongst Dolphins O-linemen really shows up in situational running. I really wish the Dolphins would commit to something like the Giants did in 2007, but to date they haven't. That year, the Giants had a good defense that could bail the team out when the QB wasn't playing great, but also had the running game figured out. With 3 great RBs, they let Brandon Jacobs run over people early, they let the speedier players (guys like Lamar Miller) play mop-up duty in the 2nd half and out-run people.
The problem is, the Dolphins haven't been stout against the run so they're defense is often questionable, they don't have a capable O-line to block early in games and to date they haven't acquired the big guy to compliment Miller.
Coaching doesn't factor into the first quarter any more than it does the 4th quarter. There's nothing to prove that. I don't even know how you'd begin to show that hypothesis is true.
What wins at any point is having your guys execute better than the other guys. Early in games that involves strength, technique and avoiding mistakes. Late even more comes into play like conditioning. I think that's common sense. I don't see how this is a reflection of coaching. -
I think the Fins are trailing because of the make up of the offense, the Fins don't have the type of offense to score when they want, most scoring drives a player makes a play, someone takes one of Tanne's short passes and makes a play, eating up 30 yards or so, shortening the field, so scoring drives come when they do, when it happens right.
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I don't think that's accurate, Finster. You act like Tannehill throws short because that's all he can do. I think it has more to do with how defenses are playing us, rushing 4, and dropping 7 into coverage, with regularity. Also, we were great last season at moving the ball all the way to the 20, and then had trouble converting. Again, though, inside the 20, with defenses able to rush 4, and get good, quick pressure, and have 7 guys in coverage, what do you expect to be open?? There are a multitude of reasons, other than QB, why short passes are happening so frequently. If suddenly Tannehill starts trying to force balls, and they get picked, he'll be criticized for forcing passes into coverage when he has options open short. LOL. It's lose/lose for him on this board for some people.
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They don't have three reliable RB's as the Giants did. As far as comparing the Dolphins defense to the 2007 Giants defense.
Right now we have no idea if the defense is going to be good or not. They gave up the third highest rushing yards last weekend against a putrid Redskin offense which really had no passing attack to worry about.
While Suh will hopefully play better. Wake is getting older and he seems to be dealing with injuries more and more as he ages.
Vernon is dealing with an ankle injury and he wasn't playing particularly well against the run prior to being injured last week.
The LB corp is a HUGE question mark. It doesn't say much positive about the LB's when the leading tackler for the Dolphins last week was a safety.
Other than Jones, who is dealing with a hamstring injury and Grimes, the remaining players in the secondary also remain a concern at this time.
Hopefully the defense will improve as the season progresses. I just think it is more a middle of the pack defense than one of the best defenses in the NFL. This year is going to be all about how far Tannehill and the passing game can take this team. I think realistically 9-7 is about the best this team will finish the season and another 8-8 season certainly wouldn't surprise me.
I don't see this being a playoff team because I think the Patriots and Bills are better teams and I don't think a third place finisher in the AFC East will qualify for the playoffs.DolphinGreg likes this.
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