In the columns below we have selected NFL QBs, their overall QB ratings in the past one to three years, their QB ratings when facing 2nd down and 11+ yards during the same period, and their QB ratings when facing 3rd down and 6+ yards during the same period:
[TABLE="width: 365"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 117, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 116, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
QBR Overall[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, width: 131, bgcolor: transparent"]
QBR 2nd & 11+[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 123, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
QBR 3rd & 6+[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Tannehill 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
81.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
25.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
62.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Tannehill 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
81.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
61[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
61.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Tannehill 2012
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
76.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
64.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
60.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Manning 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
109[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
97.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
97.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Manning 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
115.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
119.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
82.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Brees 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
91.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
75.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
60.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Brees 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
104.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
113.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
97.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Wilson 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
112.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
118.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
96.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Wilson 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
101.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
114.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
77.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Wilson 2012
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
100[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
100.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
99.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Ryan 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
96.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
88.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
114.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Ryan 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
89.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
88.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
87.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Rivers 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
116.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
126[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
134.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Rivers 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
105.5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
106.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
103.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Luck 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
99.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
67.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
96.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Luck 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
87[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
77.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
75.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Luck 2012
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
76.5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
92.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
88.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Rodgers 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
114.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
50.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
132.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Rodgers 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
104.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
125.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
102.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Kaepernick 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
91.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
127.5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
87.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Kaepernick 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
91.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
66.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
95.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Dalton 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
100.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
60.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
108.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]Dalton 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
88.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
80.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
78[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]A. Smith 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
88.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
39.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
103.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent"]A. Smith 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
89.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
68.5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #F2F2F2"]
101.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
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Bpk, Ohio Fanatic, Bumrush and 2 others like this.
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vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
Thanks for the info.
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I'd like to see how a QB like, say Eli Manning, would compare on this chart, especially from last year to this year. Like Tannehill, Eli spent the first portion of his season sorting out a new offense. It would be interesting to see how he compared from last year to this year.
I'm also curious why guys like Stafford, Newton, Cutler, Romo and Roethlisberger were left off.
The data seems to be very telling, but by eliminating the other QBs mentioned above, one could argue that this simply using confirmation bias to state that Tannehill isn't that good of a QB. I'm not saying he is or isn't, but I'm saying that the data set, as presented, is somewhat problematic.gunn34 likes this. -
Here are those additions:
[TABLE="width: 384"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 143, bgcolor: transparent"]E. Manning 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 116, bgcolor: transparent"]
95.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 131, bgcolor: transparent"]
77.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 123, bgcolor: transparent"]
49.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]E. Manning 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
69.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
72.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
57.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Roethlisberger 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
100.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
127.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
103.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Roethlisberger 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
92[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
75.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
97.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Newton 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
94.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
69.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
113.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Newton 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
88.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
79[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
80.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Stafford 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
89.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
103.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
109.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Stafford 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
84.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
98.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
85.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Cutler 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
94.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
44.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
113.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Cutler 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
89.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
79.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
101.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #BFBFBF"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Romo 2014
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
98.5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
100.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
87[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]Romo 2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
96.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
80.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"]
60.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]maynard, Unlucky 13 and Vengeful Odin like this. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
How about Andy Dalton ?
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vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
Aw heck..jusy do everyone..then u can compare across the league.
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Tannehill against Oakland two weeks ago, in 2nd and 11+ and 3rd and 6+ situations combined:
3 for 4 for 41 yards.
They essentially kept him out of those situations in the game.
Clearly when he can stay out of those situations, his QB rating stands to improve from the 60s to the 80s, on average.Unlucky 13 likes this. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
Heres an issue I have with this though. Look at 2014....your just showing a percentage. How often are Qbs in 2-11? The sample sizes could be vastly different. Miami has been good running the ball..so maybe we are in 2-11 less often...theres no reference point to go with this..
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They're only sort of relevant. With the line being crap, in obvious pass situations, how many times was Tannehill swamped, with nowhere to throw? How many dropped passes on second/third down? There are many variables here, it's not simply "Tannehill sucks."
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Oh, and again, why do we insist on comparing years 1-3 of a RAW PROSPECT against prime years of established QBs (excluding QBs in their early years like Luck/Wilson/Newton/Kap).
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Oh, I didn't realize that this list was only for this year. And our receivers lead the league in drops. I'm asking if our drops come in obvious passing situations. All drops are not equal.
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It does matter where they come from. If a person or organization has an established bias, then they tend to find ways to justify their bias. There's also nothing to dispute really. QB rating is an offensive team stat.CitizenSnips likes this.
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Is this Qb rating, or QBR? If rating, then ok. Beyonf that though, we keep comparing Ryan to the established, superstar quarterbacks. Thank you for adding a few others. If he can be a solid starter, 10-20ish QB for the next so many years, thats a win.
77FinFan likes this. -
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Of the QBs listed in posts #1 and #6, Tannehill has the following percentile ranks:
2012
Overall QB rating: 2.7
QB rating on 2nd and 11+: 16.6
QB rating on 3rd and 6+: 11.1
2013
Overall QB rating: 11.1
QB rating on 2nd and 11+: 13.8
QB rating on 3rd and 6+: 13.8
2014
Overall QB rating: 8.3
QB rating on 2nd and 11+: 0
QB rating on 3rd and 6+: 16.6
A percentile rank of 50 would indicate an average standing with regard to these variables, at least among the QBs listed above.
On the other hand, Tannehill is in the 69th percentile in 2012, the 86th percentile in 2013, and the 100th percentile in 2014, in terms of how much worse he performs in obvious passing situations than he does in general.
In other words, he's well worse than average when it comes to how much his performance decreases (as measured by QB rating) in obvious passing situations versus in general. The other QBs listed tend to have less (if at all) of a decrease in performance in obvious passing situations. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
And this is important...
Why? -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
Your not gonna start a string of obscure statistical threads like....this are you? No offense dude..Im sure theres something important in there somewhere..
But wouldnt it just be easier to say you dont think hes a good QB? We did this excercise before bro..remember?.
We get it.
Maybr break down numbers of another position..hey theres an idea. -
I'm not a stat monk but that don't look pretty
Main reason I think he's poor in obvious passing situations is that he has no alternative to the scheme related pass.
Maybe if he took off in what they call a RUSH LANE he might just make himself more of a dangerous qb -
It's not good at all. It suggests that if you can put the Dolphins in an obvious passing situation, you stand a good chance of being successful against them on those plays. That also tends to equal stalled drives and punts, and of course diminished scoring on offense.
When your team is in an obvious passing situation, you need your QB to step up and make a play. You can't have him be among the league's worst in how much his performance decreases in those situations. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
I agree.
But 80000000 stats showing why you dont like one player?
Im just saying..we get it. How bout some good statistical analysis of Cam Wake? -
PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member
As soon as passer rating is a QB-only stat, it may matter.
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Because our fate and happiness rides on his ability to perform, that's why this Sunday is the moment of truth, it's why I've been ornery all week, it's why I'm on edge, cause I know how pivotal the day is..
There really is no more excuses..year 3, week 5 after the bye, against the best qb in the league, coming off his best game, he must play at a high level and he must show the things I've been talking about, conscious running, making plays when protection breaks down, and another level of leadership..
If we're gonna invest our future and lots of money into him then he needs to start to show why on Sunday, and it needs to be really good, cause I'm not settling for pretty good.cuchulainn and Mexphin like this. -
vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member
I agree completely. He either does it..or he doesnt. Simple as that
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What shirt to wear? Decisions, decisions.
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Yep, only stat that matters is 2-2.
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Right now the team is 5th best in the league in yards per carry, and 7th best in the league in yards allowed per game on defense. I suspect that how the team plays on offense in passing situations is a large part of why it's only .500 right now despite those marks.
roy_miami likes this. -
How many drops have occurred on 2nd and 3rd down in obvious passing situations? I, personally, can remember at least one example of a converted first down - a 13 yard strike to Wallace on a comeback route vs. New England on 3rd and 11 - that Wallace did not come back to which allowed Revis to make a play. I'm sure that wasn't the only example in an obvious passing situation where Ryan Tannehill was not the problem.
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Tannehill is also the third worst QB in the league in 3 WR sets (68.3) and second worst QB in the 4th quarter (53.2).
That's just the way he rolls, as last year he was equally poor, with a 3WR rating of 73.2 (#25) and 4Q rating of 59.2 (#30).
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