Updated 12/28/21 The Dolphins are the #7 seed, and could become the #6 seed with an Indy loss this coming week. We will also climb a seed if we beat the Pats. However, one loss in the next two games and we're basically out without 4-5 other key losses around the league.
Additionally, if Buffalo loses the next two, we'd be playing the Pats for the division (and the #4 seed) in week 18.
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Unfortunately we started way too slow for me to realistically expect to make the playoffs. I think the decision to gut veterans directly impacted that.
At this point, for me it’s seeing how well this team can play together and to continue to see the development of our rookies and young players. My expectation is 8-9. Titans are beatable if we can pressure Tannehill but I’m expecting a loss there and probably NE.
It appears that there is a young nucleus of talent that will shape what this team becomes. Looking back at the first 2 rounds of the last 2 drafts, even though Jackson and Noah I are busts, we’ve had some good picks.
The future is bright but next year the expectation is playoffs or bust. I don’t care what it costs/takes, we’ve got to field a significantly better OL.Dorfdad likes this. -
Also, no team has ever made the playoffs after starting 1-7. We have a 3% chance- which means the playoffs shouldn't happen. It will take an extraordinary effort to win out.
But that brings us to the heart of your point- losing the veterans really hurt us early and probably set us back 6 weeks. There were 3 or 4 we could have won with the right leaders in place...would you say the same thing if we were 9-3 right now? Because this is the roster that ultimately would have ended up on the field in December anyway...but we went the hard route and now those rookies/young players are flourishing due to the learning curves.
Again, we win 5 games and were just about a lock for the post-season (90% chance without factoring other teams). That would have us on a 9-game win streak going into the playoffs...which sounds ridiculous. But until we lose, I'll be on that bandwagon. =) -
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Playoffs? Beat the Giants. Get to the bye, use the time for an OL shuffling. Then I can get on board for the final run. Lindsay played hard yesterday and saved Tua on one big pass play to Waddle. Maybe he adds a necessary spark to the run game and pass protection.
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Water under the bridge. I still think Grier makes too many boneheaded decisions that hold us back. With this years draft, I doubt he gets replaced. I just don’t want to see him let Ogbah, Gesicki go and we have the same issues to start next season.KeyFin likes this. -
I’m not not going to get into the hype of playoffs. Too premature and unrealistic to even think about that. But with that being said…
If…and I emphasize with a capitalized IF we were to win out and actually make it to the playoffs, we would be the team no one would want to play.
History has shown that teams going strong into the playoffs are the Cinderella upset teams to behead the giants in the playoffs and limped in.KeyFin likes this. -
Dolphins currently have a 1 in 400 chance to win the SB, so highly unlikely obviously. Of course, that's still better than the 1000 to 1 odds the US hockey team had of beating the Soviet Union in the 1980 Olympics. Then there's Leicester City winning the Premier League with possibly the worst odds in team sports history: 5000 to 1 odds lol. So anything is possible?
Anyway, just to sober things up a bit more, aside from the very low probability of making the playoffs, only 6 Wild Cards have ever won the SB, out of 214 total I think, so only a 2.8% chance of winning the SB IF we make the playoffs.
The closest late season rally Wild Card (and 6th seed) team to win the SB was Pittsburgh in 2005. They won their last 4 and became the first 6th seed to win the SB. We'd have to out-do that by winning our last 9 lol. Oh, and Roethlisberger was playing at an elite level back then with a z-score of +1.7 (he had a 98.6 rating when the league average was 80.1).
On average a QB on a SB winning team plays at a z-score passer rating of about +1 in that year. So the target for Tua would be to end with around a 102 rating this year (league average is currently 91.6 with a standard deviation of 10.3). That's not impossible if somehow Tua can keep up his 100+ rating games (3 in a row now). -
I'm not entertaining any playoff consideration right now. We dug much too deep a hole to get that far ahead of ourselves. I'm just hoping we win the next game, take advantage of the bye to get healthy, and return strong enough to win the next game. Hopefully, Flo's message to the team is to take things one game at a time because right now, every game is a playoff game (like the last game against the Bills). If we lose, we're done. If we beat the odds and manage to win out and earn a spot in the tournament, the good news is that we'll be a tough team to beat.
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I have no personal hope of the playoffs. We dug too deep of a hole.
My only real desire is to see the offense gradually show something the rest of the season. Sunday vs the Panthers was OK. I mean, mediocre is better than awful, so its a step in the right direction. It would be nice to end the year with a good taste in my mouth about what's happening.KeyFin likes this. -
I'm not expecting a Super Bowl appearance this year either, and my mentality is one game at a time. Can we beat the Giants? I don't see why not. That's our only focus though and this thread is to track it.
If we win, our chances of being in the playoffs go from 3% to 4%! With some big upsets, it can swing as far as a 5.2% chance! -
A lot of mentions of ‘the slow start.’
It should read slow STARTS.
As long as Flores is coach of this franchise, the team will have to finish the last 10 games On a miraculous near perfect run to ever make the playoffs! He has proven every year he is completely incapable of preparing a team and bringing a team together to start a season.
3 straight years is not a fluke… It’s a fact at this point.
2019; 0-7 start
5-4 finish
2020; 1-3 start
10-3 finish
2021; 1-7 start
4-0 since
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Anyway, the 2019 start makes sense given how depleted we were. It's 2021 that's problematic. We don't have any good excuses for some of the losses this year, especially to Jacksonville and Atlanta. -
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Last year, we started off "better" and had a pretty good team by the end of the season. Still lots of growing pains though and it spilled over into this year when we did another veteran purge. But look at our defense now- it's freaking dominant and as long as X stays healthy, it will remain dominant for a number of seasons.
I'm highly optimistic that year 4 won't have those same growing pains...and I also think year 3 still has a lot to prove. -
Beyond that, the franchise as a whole has started slowly for so long, that its really worn on me. We haven't come out and played at least fairly well on offense in September since 2013!KeyFin likes this. -
I see a pattern developing we did this last year as well we went through a rut the beginning of the season And then went on a spree which had us on the cusp for the playoffs And we didn’t pull through I’m not going down that road again you guys can all be super super happy and enjoy the wins But don’t get it in your head for a second that this is a playoff team you just looking for a let down too many good teams left on our schedule for us to win out.
Maybe I’m just being a Debbie downer but this team created me to be a Debbie downer he just can’t lose 7 In a row and consider yourself a good football team we need a bunch of changes and any more wins is just going to convince this ownership that they can stay the course and that next year will be the magical yearUnlucky 13 likes this. -
We just beat the Panthers who only had one win more than us. We beat the garbage Jets. Who have we beat that is any good?
Come on man.Dorfdad likes this. -
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With the Titans and Saints recent fortunes, All remaining games are winnable.
Beating the New York teams are the next challenge. Ovs.
Like last year, there are too many quality teams for them to realistically make the playoffs. The entire AFC North and West are in contention. Maybe the Oranges, Chargers and Raiders fall off. But who else?KeyFin likes this. -
Simple calculus. That NE game at the end might be the decider.KeyFin likes this. -
If the Dolphins don't win out, it would be nice to see them spoil that bratty Mac Jone's season.KeyFin likes this. -
Again, they need to win out. Which might be the most unrealistic part. Winning 9 games in a row is difficult, even if the teams are beatable. Especially with Miami's offensive line.KeyFin likes this. -
As fans, we can look ahead. The Saints seem to be getting healthy but still don't have a QB. The Titans might have their wideouts back. Supposedly Henry could be back but I don't know how effective he'd be.
Sure would be nice to go into the last game of the season with a win and in chance. We blew it last year so maybe we would have learned something.Silverphin, Tone_E and KeyFin like this. -
Saints don't scare me because they don't have an accurate quick thinking quarterback. Those are the type that really hurt Miami's defense. They seem to be able to do a lot better with running QBs this year. So Taysom doesn't scare me.
Titans could be an issue as Tannehill can be accurate and can be quick thinking.
New England will be tough due to their offensive line.
However, Giants and Jets could beat Miami if Miami plays like they did against the Jags and Falcons. Can't make boneheaded mistakes. -
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The 72 Dolphins won 17 in a row, NE won 18 in a row. 9 in a row is not all that outrageous.
MikeHoncho, KeyFin and Puka-head like this. -
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Am i the only one fully expecting us to lose to either the jets or giants. Seems like classic time for dolphins to fall flat on their face.
mlb1399 likes this. -
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zero chance of the play offs despite the recent run.
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- A win next week and it's a 5% chance.
- Two wins in a row and it's still a 5% chance.
- Three wins in a row and it's a 15% chance.
- Four wins in a row and it's a 37% chance.
- Five wins and it's an 88% chance.
One final note- we DEFINITELY want the Bills over the Pats this week, Ravens over Steelers and Washington over Vegas. Those games improve our overall odds by 4%. Texans over Colts give another 1%, but that likely doesn't have a chance.Last edited: Dec 2, 2021
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